Trend Analysis and Forecast of Arrivals and Prices of Mosambi Crop in Himachal Pradesh: A Horticultural Market Study

Trend Analysis and Forecast of Arrivals and Prices of Mosambi Crop in Himachal Pradesh: A Horticultural Market Study | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Trend Analysis and Forecast of Arrivals and Prices of Mosambi Crop in Himachal Pradesh: A Horticultural Market Study Vishal Thakur, Anju Sharma, Rakesh Gupta, Ashu Chandel, Subhash Sharma, and 3 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8838110/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 4 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The present study was undertaken to analyze the trends and patterns in market arrivals and prices of Mosambi. The research was conducted at Dr. Y.S. Parmar University of Horticulture and Forestry, Nauni, Solan (H.P.) during the year 2024. The trends and variability of prices and market arrivals were computed for the crop in two major markets, namely Kangra and Una of the Himachal Pradesh state of India from the 2006–2023. Different trend models were applied which revealed that power and cubic models fit best for the arrivals data while cubic models fit best for the prices data. Seasonal index was analyzed, which revealed the monthly peaks and lean for prices and arrivals in each market. The CDVI revealed instability in the arrivals and prices of mosambi crop. The arrivals data were highly instable, while the prices data showed low instability for mosambi markets. The growth rate for mosambi crop arrivals were computed using CGR. There was a positive growth rate for arrivals across all mosambi markets but it was persistent. In terms of prices, the growth rate remained positive across all markets. The association between market prices and arrivals was computed using correlation coefficients. The analysis showed a positive relationship was observed in the mosambi market though it was nor persistent across all years. SARIMA model was employed to forecast the arrivals and prices of mosambi crop which can be advantageous for both growers and policy makers. Trend Forecast SARIMA RMSE MAPE AIC Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 22 Feb, 2026 Editor assigned by journal 13 Feb, 2026 Submission checks completed at journal 13 Feb, 2026 First submitted to journal 10 Feb, 2026 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8838110","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":595104880,"identity":"385750ff-f581-40bb-99ca-0154358386e5","order_by":0,"name":"Vishal 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