Warming of West Antarctic continental-shelf waters over the last century

Warming of West Antarctic continental-shelf waters over the last century | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Physical Sciences - Article Warming of West Antarctic continental-shelf waters over the last century Yoshihiro Nakayama, Jentry Campbell, Eric Steig, Viktor Gouretski, and 1 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9282019/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract West Antarctic ice shelves are rapidly melting and thinning, accelerating global sea-level rise. Limited glaciological and paleoceanographic evidence suggests that the continental shelf regions may have undergone a regime shift from a cold to a warm state during the past century, but no direct ocean observations have captured such a transition. Here, we synthesize ocean observations spanning from the late 19th century to the present, including newly-available data from 1898 through the 1980s that reveal the long-term evolution of the West Antarctic continental-shelf ocean. We identify three distinct phases: initial thin warm-water intrusions, thermocline shallowing, and intrusions of even warmer and lighter water masses. The first phase appears to have begun in the early twentieth century, driven by the large-scale shoaling of Circumpolar Deep Water. Our results provide direct observational evidence that continental-shelf ocean warming began in the early 20th century, which suggests that West Antarctic glacier retreat may also have begun earlier than is commonly thought. Early 20th-century warming in coastal West Antarctica represents a critical observational constraint for improving Earth system models in both hindcasts and future projections. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Cryospheric science Earth and environmental sciences/Ocean sciences/Physical oceanography Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files SIP.docx.pdf Supplement Text Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-9282019","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Physical Sciences - Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":617198907,"identity":"090dcba4-679a-4d86-a701-1696ed6284b6","order_by":0,"name":"Yoshihiro Nakayama","email":"data:image/png;base64,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","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6543-529X","institution":"Dartmouth College","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Yoshihiro","middleName":"","lastName":"Nakayama","suffix":""},{"id":617198908,"identity":"ad68d647-a0ac-4983-a817-903a9a3cd4bc","order_by":1,"name":"Jentry Campbell","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8615-5094","institution":"Dartmouth Libraries, Dartmouth College","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Jentry","middleName":"","lastName":"Campbell","suffix":""},{"id":617198909,"identity":"012c6c5f-781b-4251-a18b-7033dd60d32e","order_by":2,"name":"Eric Steig","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8191-5549","institution":"University of Washington","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Eric","middleName":"","lastName":"Steig","suffix":""},{"id":617198910,"identity":"da3f6b67-1d16-4636-aba3-fd7565bae56d","order_by":3,"name":"Viktor Gouretski","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Viktor","middleName":"","lastName":"Gouretski","suffix":""},{"id":617198911,"identity":"d492489c-2c1d-4739-a17d-2b564361b74b","order_by":4,"name":"Karen Heywood","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9859-0026","institution":"Centre for Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, School of Enviromental Sciences","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Karen","middleName":"","lastName":"Heywood","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-03-31 15:33:46","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9282019/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9282019/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":107705758,"identity":"af00436c-e26e-41e1-8687-ee81bc76f7e8","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-04-24 09:15:06","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":8633800,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Article File","description":"","filename":"ASBSAPHistoryNature5.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-9282019/v1_covered_07ad62bb-1917-4b79-b2fe-71f622e46dcf.pdf"},{"id":107498993,"identity":"b4f73321-6b52-4747-89bf-3b9d8457033d","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-04-22 05:35:30","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":163306,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Supplement Text","description":"","filename":"SIP.docx.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-9282019/v1/f2ca292336123157274bbdc0.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"There is \u003cb\u003eNO\u003c/b\u003e Competing Interest.","formattedTitle":"Warming of West Antarctic continental-shelf waters over the last century","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"nature-portfolio","isNatureJournal":true,"hasQc":false,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Nature Portfolio","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":false,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"ejp","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9282019/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9282019/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"West Antarctic ice shelves are rapidly melting and thinning, accelerating global sea-level rise. Limited glaciological and paleoceanographic evidence suggests that the continental shelf regions may have undergone a regime shift from a cold to a warm state during the past century, but no direct ocean observations have captured such a transition. Here, we synthesize ocean observations spanning from the late 19th century to the present, including newly-available data from 1898 through the 1980s that reveal the long-term evolution of the West Antarctic continental-shelf ocean. We identify three distinct phases: initial thin warm-water intrusions, thermocline shallowing, and intrusions of even warmer and lighter water masses. The first phase appears to have begun in the early twentieth century, driven by the large-scale shoaling of Circumpolar Deep Water. Our results provide direct observational evidence that continental-shelf ocean warming began in the early 20th century, which suggests that West Antarctic glacier retreat may also have begun earlier than is commonly thought. Early 20th-century warming in coastal West Antarctica represents a critical observational constraint for improving Earth system models in both hindcasts and future projections.","manuscriptTitle":"Warming of West Antarctic continental-shelf waters over the last century","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2026-04-22 05:35:26","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9282019/v1","editorialEvents":[],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"nature-geoscience","isNatureJournal":true,"hasQc":false,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"ngeo","sideBox":"Learn more about [Nature Geoscience](http://www.nature.com/ngeo/)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Nature Geoscience","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"ejp","reportingPortfolio":"Nature Research","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"d375b8ad-6310-4d92-bdb6-07f1232bc952","owner":[],"postedDate":"April 22nd, 2026","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"under-review","subjectAreas":[{"id":65684443,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Cryospheric science"},{"id":65684444,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Ocean sciences/Physical oceanography"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-04-22T05:35:26+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2026-04-22 05:35:26","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-9282019","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-9282019","identity":"rs-9282019","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"XKTyCvWXoU3ODBz1xrDgd","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}