Asymmetric Price Volatility in Indian Potato Markets: Empirical Evidence from Major Trading Hubs

Asymmetric Price Volatility in Indian Potato Markets: Empirical Evidence from Major Trading Hubs | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Asymmetric Price Volatility in Indian Potato Markets: Empirical Evidence from Major Trading Hubs Sanket Chavan, Virendra Singh, Aaditya Jadhav, Kamal Jalthariya, and 2 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7591649/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 5 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract In India, vegetables are a major driver of food inflation, with potatoes and onions contributing significantly due to their highly seasonal and perishable nature. Potatoes, in particular, serve as a key staple owing to their high nutritional value, adaptability to diverse climatic conditions, and inelastic demand. However, these very characteristics also make potato prices highly volatile over time. This study investigates the asymmetric nature of potato price volatility and it’s forecasting across four major Indian markets-Agra, Burdwan, Mumbai, and Azadpur-using weekly price data spanning from the first week of January 2013 to the fourth week of December 2022. Volatility dynamics were analyzed using the standard GARCH model along with two asymmetric models: EGARCH and GJR-GARCH. The results reveal the presence of asymmetric price volatility in all selected markets, indicating that positive and negative shocks have differing impacts on price behaviour. Model comparison suggests that the EGARCH model performed best for Agra, Burdwan and Mumbai, while the GJR-GARCH model was more suitable for Azadpur. New impact curve shows that, negative shocks have a more substantial and consistent impact on price volatility in potato markets compared to positive shock. These findings highlight the need for market-specific strategies in managing price risks in the Indian potato sector. Potato Price Asymmetric volatility News Impact Curve Full Text Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Reviewers agreed at journal 07 Oct, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 07 Oct, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 06 Oct, 2025 First submitted to journal 03 Oct, 2025 Editorial decision: Major revisions 15 Sep, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7591649","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":525772224,"identity":"8868baac-e36e-41bf-a994-b77245e32244","order_by":0,"name":"Sanket Chavan","email":"data:image/png;base64,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","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9629-7843","institution":"Research and Information System for Developing Countries","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Sanket","middleName":"","lastName":"Chavan","suffix":""},{"id":525772225,"identity":"d30256cc-ab5b-4de4-85d0-3aba69d53914","order_by":1,"name":"Virendra Singh","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Govind Ballabh Pant University of Agriculture \u0026 Technology","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Virendra","middleName":"","lastName":"Singh","suffix":""},{"id":525772226,"identity":"7f09fc31-0df7-4cb8-9b4d-0427bd6b692e","order_by":2,"name":"Aaditya Jadhav","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Banaras Hindu University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Aaditya","middleName":"","lastName":"Jadhav","suffix":""},{"id":525772227,"identity":"67ec3eae-b2f6-4e32-b70e-1ad8e1d696a4","order_by":3,"name":"Kamal Jalthariya","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Junagadh Agricultural University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Kamal","middleName":"","lastName":"Jalthariya","suffix":""},{"id":525772228,"identity":"48ef7ec6-e329-4960-b2cb-6be1578c4c4b","order_by":4,"name":"Tony Manoj K. 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Hubs","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":true,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"potato-research","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"potr","sideBox":"Learn more about [Potato Research](http://link.springer.com/journal/11540)","snPcode":"11540","submissionUrl":"https://www.editorialmanager.com/potr/default2.aspx","title":"Potato Research","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"Potato, Price, Asymmetric volatility, News Impact Curve","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7591649/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7591649/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eIn India, vegetables are a major driver of food inflation, with potatoes and onions contributing significantly due to their highly seasonal and perishable nature. Potatoes, in particular, serve as a key staple owing to their high nutritional value, adaptability to diverse climatic conditions, and inelastic demand. However, these very characteristics also make potato prices highly volatile over time. This study investigates the asymmetric nature of potato price volatility and it\u0026rsquo;s forecasting across four major Indian markets-Agra, Burdwan, Mumbai, and Azadpur-using weekly price data spanning from the first week of January 2013 to the fourth week of December 2022. Volatility dynamics were analyzed using the standard GARCH model along with two asymmetric models: EGARCH and GJR-GARCH. The results reveal the presence of asymmetric price volatility in all selected markets, indicating that positive and negative shocks have differing impacts on price behaviour. Model comparison suggests that the EGARCH model performed best for Agra, Burdwan and Mumbai, while the GJR-GARCH model was more suitable for Azadpur. New impact curve shows that, negative shocks have a more substantial and consistent impact on price volatility in potato markets compared to positive shock. These findings highlight the need for market-specific strategies in managing price risks in the Indian potato sector.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Asymmetric Price Volatility in Indian Potato Markets: Empirical Evidence from Major Trading Hubs","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-10-17 18:37:39","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7591649/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"","date":"2025-10-07T07:01:29+00:00","index":0,"fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewersInvited","content":"","date":"2025-10-07T06:40:05+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorAssigned","content":"","date":"2025-10-07T02:58:28+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"submitted","content":"Potato Research","date":"2025-10-03T07:14:24+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"decision","content":"Major revisions","date":"2025-09-15T08:23:13+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"potato-research","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"potr","sideBox":"Learn more about [Potato Research](http://link.springer.com/journal/11540)","snPcode":"11540","submissionUrl":"https://www.editorialmanager.com/potr/default2.aspx","title":"Potato Research","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"1772a93d-8adc-4943-b7f6-d33049de1f9b","owner":[],"postedDate":"October 17th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"under-review","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-03-24T08:18:21+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2025-10-17 18:37:39","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-7591649","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-7591649","identity":"rs-7591649","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}