ProCarbon-Soil—PROCS: a dynamic model for improved model-data compatibility in carbon farming

ProCarbon-Soil—PROCS: a dynamic model for improved model-data compatibility in carbon farming | Authorea try { document.documentElement.classList.add('js'); } catch (e) { } var _gaq = _gaq || []; _gaq.push(['_setAccount', 'G-8VDV14Y67G']); _gaq.push(['_trackPageview']); (function() { var ga = document.createElement('script'); ga.type = 'text/javascript'; ga.async = true; ga.src = ('https:' == document.location.protocol ? 'https://ssl' : 'http://www') + '.google-analytics.com/ga.js'; var s = document.getElementsByTagName('script')[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(ga, s); })(); Skip to main content Preprints Collections Wiley Open Research IET Open Research Ecological Society of Japan All Collections About About Authorea FAQs Contact Us Quick Search anywhere Search for preprint articles, keywords, etc. Search Search ADVANCED SEARCH SCROLL This is a preprint and has not been peer reviewed. Data may be preliminary. 5 March 2025 V2 Latest version Share on ProCarbon-Soil—PROCS: a dynamic model for improved model-data compatibility in carbon farming Authors : Luis Gustavo Barioni 0000-0003-1716-1428 [email protected] , Beatriz Valladão 0000-0001-5125-8392 , Vitor Mourão , Robert Ewing , Yusuf Karatay , Júnior Melo Damian 0000-0002-1692-6751 , Vinicius do Carmo Melicio 0009-0005-4100-2189 , Rodrigo Pereira Abou Rejaili 0009-0005-4586-1909 , and Rafael de Oliveira Silva Authors Info & Affiliations https://doi.org/10.22541/au.173939408.85143116/v2 Published Soil Science Society of America Journal Version of record Peer review timeline 579 views 250 downloads Contents Abstract Supplementary Material Information & Authors Metrics & Citations View Options References Figures Tables Media Share Abstract Carbon farming is a nature-based solution to capture atmospheric CO2 and store it as soil organic carbon (SOC). Carbon farming trading schemes (CFTS) incentivize farmers to adopt these practices. Integral to CFTS is forecasting the SOC changes of individual projects, typically achieved using traditional multicompartmental soil carbon models (mSCM), and monitor total SOC stocks. However, traditional mSCM simulate unmeasurable compartments, leading to overparameterization and indeterminable partitioning among carbon compartments, suggesting a need for structural improvements. The ProCarbon-Soil (PROCS) model addresses this need abstracting fundamental principles of mSCM, reducing SOC state variables to two (total carbon and decomposability), and employing only one stabilization parameter, compared to the 4–8 state variables and 7–20 parameters typically required by mSCM. We mathematically derive methods for decomposability estimation and model initialization using successive carbon measurements. PROCS can handle environmental modifiers and events such as crop rotations, tillage, and manuring events, and respond to soil characteristics and weather conditions. Tests show that PROCS can accurately reproduce synthetic SOC trajectories generated by an mSCM with perturbed parameters using short-term data (12 years) with acceptable accuracy (median RMSE < 1.03 Mg ha-1 and absolute median of MB < 0.55 Mg ha-1). In a cross-validation test, the mean NRMSE closely aligns with the CV of white noise introduced in the synthetic data (4.15% vs 4.00%, respectively) for augmented carbon inflow scenarios, whereas the model exhibits higher errors for the no-carbon-inflow scenario (NRMSE = 5.48, 7.25 and 8.99% for 12, 24 and 50 years, respectively). Supplementary Material File (the procarbon model sub 1.docx) Download 1.79 MB Information & Authors Information Version history V1 Version 1 12 February 2025 V2 Version 2 05 March 2025 Peer review timeline Published Soil Science Society of America Journal Version of Record 13 May 2026 Published Copyright This work is licensed under a Non Exclusive No Reuse License. Keywords carbon market carbon turnover ordinary differential equations parameter identification soil organic carbon Authors Affiliations Luis Gustavo Barioni 0000-0003-1716-1428 [email protected] Embrapa Agricultura Digital View all articles by this author Beatriz Valladão 0000-0001-5125-8392 Embrapa Digital Agriculture View all articles by this author Vitor Mourão Embrapa Agricultura Digital View all articles by this author Robert Ewing Bayer CropScience LLC View all articles by this author Yusuf Karatay The University of Edinburgh View all articles by this author Júnior Melo Damian 0000-0002-1692-6751 Embrapa Agricultura Digital View all articles by this author Vinicius do Carmo Melicio 0009-0005-4100-2189 Embrapa Digital Agriculture View all articles by this author Rodrigo Pereira Abou Rejaili 0009-0005-4586-1909 Bayer CropScience View all articles by this author Rafael de Oliveira Silva The University of Edinburgh Global Academy of Agriculture and Food Systems View all articles by this author Funding Information Office of the Royal Society RSWVF\R2\222008 Luis Gustavo Barioni Metrics & Citations Metrics Article Usage 579 views 250 downloads .FvxKWukQNSOunydq8rnd { width: 100px; } Citations Download citation Luis Gustavo Barioni, Beatriz Valladão, Vitor Mourão, et al. ProCarbon-Soil—PROCS: a dynamic model for improved model-data compatibility in carbon farming. Authorea . 05 March 2025. DOI: https://doi.org/10.22541/au.173939408.85143116/v2 If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download. For more information or tips please see 'Downloading to a citation manager' in the Help menu . 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