A Causal Intercomparison framework unravels precipitation drivers in Global Storm-Resolving Models

A Causal Intercomparison framework unravels precipitation drivers in Global Storm-Resolving Models | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article A Causal Intercomparison framework unravels precipitation drivers in Global Storm-Resolving Models Lucile Ricard, Tom Beucler, Claudia Stephan, Athanasios Nenes This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-4888482/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 01 Jul, 2025 Read the published version in npj Climate and Atmospheric Science → Version 1 posted 10 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Correctly representing convective precipitation remains a long-standing problem in climate models, due to its highly parameterized nature and unclear role of drivers interacting over a wide range of spatial scales. We analyze and compare simulations of Global Storm-Resolving Models, using a methodology based on dimensionality reduction and causal inference, to unravel the contribution of large-scale variables and storm-scale dynamics on precipitation distribution. We derive regions of Column Relative Humidity (CRH) , which exclude sharp humidity gradients and help define coherent thermodynamic environments, which are subsequently found to control precipitation throughout half of the tropics. The control of CRH on precipitation is notably amplified by considering explicitly the intermediate role of the convective area. Moreover, the effect values are consistent across models and quantiles, which could be further employed to constrain GCMs. Our results show that the most extreme intensities (99.9th percentile) cannot be adequately represented without high-resolution data on vertical velocity. However, their effect on precipitation varies considerably across models and precipitation quantiles, making it more difficult to develop a constraint on storm-scale control. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Atmospheric science/Atmospheric dynamics Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Climate and earth system modelling Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 01 Jul, 2025 Read the published version in npj Climate and Atmospheric Science → Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 22 Oct, 2024 Reviews received at journal 09 Oct, 2024 Reviews received at journal 04 Oct, 2024 Reviewers agreed at journal 21 Sep, 2024 Reviewers agreed at journal 17 Sep, 2024 Reviewers agreed at journal 07 Sep, 2024 Reviewers invited by journal 16 Aug, 2024 Editor assigned by journal 13 Aug, 2024 Submission checks completed at journal 12 Aug, 2024 First submitted to journal 09 Aug, 2024 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-4888482","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":351073720,"identity":"3e018748-15cb-4d12-b42a-e527c3b63165","order_by":0,"name":"Lucile Ricard","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Lucile","middleName":"","lastName":"Ricard","suffix":""},{"id":351073721,"identity":"6ccff097-67cd-460b-bfa8-13ce792bfbdb","order_by":1,"name":"Tom Beucler","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Lausanne","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Tom","middleName":"","lastName":"Beucler","suffix":""},{"id":351073723,"identity":"c089cf83-d625-4f9b-93d2-d45ef5f461a1","order_by":2,"name":"Claudia Stephan","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Rostock","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Claudia","middleName":"","lastName":"Stephan","suffix":""},{"id":351073724,"identity":"a6c83dfe-044e-44bd-beae-00ea53145b5a","order_by":3,"name":"Athanasios Nenes","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAABCUlEQVRIiWNgGAWjYFACHiQSBPiB+MMDBoYEnDrY0LVINjAwzkggQgsCGBwgoIV/fu/BzwU1dTL8/AfYHnzcYWNvfLz3YEMCg10eLi0Sx/iSpWccO8wjOSOB3XDmmbTEbWfOJQK1JBfjdNgxHgNpHrYDPAY3GNikedsOJ5jdyDF/kMBwILEBhw75YzzGv3n+1fEYnD/AJv237b+98fw3hg34tBgc4zEDGs7MY3AggU2ase0A4wYJHvxaDI/lmFnz9oH8ktgm2duWnDjjTB7QLwbJOLXIHT5jfJvnW509P//hYxI/2+zs+dvPHmz4UGGHUwsSYISpAcWUAWH1yAA9ckfBKBgFo2CkAwDviFZBa4h7rAAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"","institution":"École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Athanasios","middleName":"","lastName":"Nenes","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2024-08-09 17:14:15","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4888482/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4888482/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[{"content":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01104-x","type":"published","date":"2025-07-01T15:58:42+00:00"}],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":86179409,"identity":"b24ac91b-178b-4e74-bf2a-f794bdcfcf3c","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-07-07 16:17:36","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1210606,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"ManuscriptnpjLucileRICARD.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4888482/v1_covered_1fd3a96b-63e7-4001-aff2-73204b076049.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"A Causal Intercomparison framework unravels precipitation drivers in Global Storm-Resolving Models","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"npj-climate-and-atmospheric-science","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"npjclimatsci","sideBox":"Learn more about [npj Climate and Atmospheric Science](http://www.nature.com/npjclimatsci/)","snPcode":"41612","submissionUrl":"https://submission.springernature.com/new-submission/41612/3","title":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"NPJ","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4888482/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4888482/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eCorrectly representing convective precipitation remains a long-standing problem in climate models, due to its highly parameterized nature and unclear role of drivers interacting over a wide range of spatial scales. 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