Automatic calibration of a functional-structural wheat model using an adaptive design and a metamodelling approach

Background and Aims: Functional-structural plant models are increasingly being used by plant scientists to address a wide variety of questions. However, the calibration of these complex models is often challenging, mainly because of their high computational cost. In this paper, we applied an automatic method to the calibration of WALTer: a functional-structural wheat model that simulates the plasticity of tillering in response to competition for light. Methods: We used a Bayesian calibration method to estimate the values of 5 parameters of the WALTer model by fitting the model outputs to tillering dynamics data. The method presented in this paper is based on the Efficient Global Optimisation algorithm. It involves the use of Gaussian process metamodels to generate fast approximations of the model outputs. To account for the uncertainty associated with the metamodels approximations, an adaptive design was used. The efficacy of the method was first assessed using simulated data. The calibration was then applied to experimental data. Key Results The method presented here performed well on both simulated and experimental data. In particular, the use of an adaptive design proved to be a very efficient method to improve the quality of the metamodels predictions, especially by reducing the uncertainty in areas of the parameter space that were of interest for the fitting. Moreover, we showed the necessity to have a diversity of field data in order to be able to calibrate the parameters. Conclusions: The method presented in this paper, based on an adaptive design and Gaussian process metamodels, is an efficient approach for the calibration of WALTer and could be of interest for the calibration of other functional-structural plant models.