Projection of midsummer precipitation by CMIP6 models and analysis its sources of uncertainty in the northern China monsoon region

Projection of midsummer precipitation by CMIP6 models and analysis its sources of uncertainty in the northern China monsoon region | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Projection of midsummer precipitation by CMIP6 models and analysis its sources of uncertainty in the northern China monsoon region Liu Yang, Junhu Zhao, Yuantao Hu, Guolin Feng This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7093234/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The projection of mid-summer precipitation trend is slight increasing in the near-term (2021-2040), maximum in the mid-term (2041-2060) and slowing down in the long-term (2080-2099) over northern China monsoon region (NCMR), and its mean increasing trend is projected to be 3% (5%) under different scenarios in the near-term (middle-term), and slightly decreases to 2% in the long-term. Especially, it is sensitive to temperature change under SSP1-2.6 scenario, which may be related to the small amount of temperature change under this scenario. Under the background of global warming, the optimal model projection enhancement trend, which is caused by dynamic responses, and partly offset by thermodynamic responses. The projection uncertainty of mid-summer precipitation is the largest under SSP5-8.5 in the long-term over NCMR. Monsoon region projection CMIP6 thermodynamic dynamic Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7093234","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":492256313,"identity":"132ad363-ad5d-4347-9271-ce27e9b1e63b","order_by":0,"name":"Liu Yang","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Shaanxi Climate Center","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Liu","middleName":"","lastName":"Yang","suffix":""},{"id":492256314,"identity":"8d3b247d-b167-4c10-8ff9-fc3ab9cf3921","order_by":1,"name":"Junhu Zhao","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAzElEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBACfmb+7z8+VLAxs7E3EKlFsp3BQHLGGT52fp4DRGoxOM9gIM3bJscvOSOBWC2HGRIMeNvMpA1uPt54g6HGJpqwww4zHEiQOJdmbHA7rdiC4VhabgMhLXyHGRsOGJQdSza4nWMmwdhwmLAWhsPMjA0JbP/rN9w8Q6QWgcNszAwH2tiYJWfwEKlFspmHjbHhDBszPw/QLwnE+IWfH6j8DzgqD2+88aHGhgi/IAEDiQRSlEO0kKpjFIyCUTAKRgYAADQoPDowqGaOAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"","institution":"China Meteorological Administration Key Laboratory for Climate Prediction Studies","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Junhu","middleName":"","lastName":"Zhao","suffix":""},{"id":492256315,"identity":"99e99b69-e90c-49c1-b457-bf79265242ca","order_by":2,"name":"Yuantao Hu","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Shaanxi Climate Center","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Yuantao","middleName":"","lastName":"Hu","suffix":""},{"id":492256316,"identity":"be819ec9-6a4b-4754-939a-e98ffcab47af","order_by":3,"name":"Guolin Feng","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"College of Atmospheric Science, Lanzhou University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Guolin","middleName":"","lastName":"Feng","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-07-10 12:53:18","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7093234/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7093234/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":90208798,"identity":"765a6b6b-15a6-435e-b1e4-deed143241b3","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-08-30 01:16:44","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":562101,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"manuscript.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7093234/v1_covered_18251ad6-6593-4848-9c9c-0598cfe14518.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Projection of midsummer precipitation by CMIP6 models and analysis its sources of uncertainty in the northern China monsoon region","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Monsoon region, projection ,CMIP6, thermodynamic, dynamic","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7093234/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7093234/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eThe projection of mid-summer precipitation trend is slight increasing in the near-term (2021-2040), maximum in the mid-term (2041-2060) and slowing down in the long-term (2080-2099) over northern China monsoon region (NCMR), and its mean increasing trend is projected to be 3% (5%) under different scenarios in the near-term (middle-term), and slightly decreases to 2% in the long-term. 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