The Impact of Temperature Change on Food Security: Evidence from the Heterogeneous Effects of General and Extreme Temperatures in Chinese Provinces

The Impact of Temperature Change on Food Security: Evidence from the Heterogeneous Effects of General and Extreme Temperatures in Chinese Provinces | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article The Impact of Temperature Change on Food Security: Evidence from the Heterogeneous Effects of General and Extreme Temperatures in Chinese Provinces Hailan Sa, Wei Chang, Qiuyi Wu This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8532895/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 11 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Global warming is profoundly impacting agricultural production, posing severe challenges to food security. Therefore, delving into the effects of temperature change on food security aids in better confronting future risks and stabilizing food supply. Utilizing panel data from China's 31 provinces (regions, cities) from 2011 to 2022, a comprehensive evaluation system for China's food security was constructed, differentiating temperature change into general and extreme temperatures. Systematic empirical tests were conducted on their heterogeneous impacts on food security and their mechanisms. Findings reveal: Firstly, China's overall food security level exhibits a steady upward trend during the study period. Secondly, general temperature change positively influences food security, while extreme high and low temperatures negatively affect it, remaining significant after multiple robustness tests. Thirdly, from the perspective of heterogeneity, the impact of temperature change in major grain-producing areas on food security is more pronounced. Fourthly, mechanism analysis indicates that both general and extreme temperatures can influence food security through agricultural technology progress and farmland transfer. Specifically, general temperature changes can facilitate food security by leveraging these two channels. Extreme high temperatures can suppress their adverse effects on food security by reinforcing these channels. Conversely, extreme low temperatures further inhibit these two channels, exacerbating the negative impact on food security. These results provide a reference for the government in formulating relevant agricultural policies. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences Temperature Change Extreme Temperature Food Security Agricultural Technological Advancement Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 30 Apr, 2026 Reviews received at journal 28 Apr, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 19 Apr, 2026 Reviews received at journal 14 Feb, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 13 Feb, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 02 Feb, 2026 Reviewers invited by journal 19 Jan, 2026 Editor assigned by journal 17 Jan, 2026 Editor invited by journal 11 Jan, 2026 Submission checks completed at journal 07 Jan, 2026 First submitted to journal 07 Jan, 2026 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8532895","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":577137069,"identity":"6e24106d-7e0d-41fd-bcf5-ff9e6ec3010b","order_by":0,"name":"Hailan Sa","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Shihezi University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Hailan","middleName":"","lastName":"Sa","suffix":""},{"id":577137070,"identity":"90a51b47-3da7-4ac6-b169-0d7d1c95ba8f","order_by":1,"name":"Wei Chang","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Shihezi 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