Income Expectation Gaps from Historical and Social Dual Perspectives on Consumption: Influence Mechanism and Mitigating Pathways

Income Expectation Gaps from Historical and Social Dual Perspectives on Consumption: Influence Mechanism and Mitigating Pathways | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Income Expectation Gaps from Historical and Social Dual Perspectives on Consumption: Influence Mechanism and Mitigating Pathways Xiaoli Gan, Yaqian Liu, Duan Huang, Yuhao Chen, Quan Yu This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6211705/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Based on the data from the China Household Finance Survey (CHFS), this paper employs the income expectation gap as an indicator to quantify psychological income loss. It investigates the impact of psychological income loss on consumption behavior and its underlying mechanisms from both historical and social dimensions. The findings indicate that the income expectation gap significantly restrains household consumption expenditure in a persistent manner, with the social expectation gap exerting a more pronounced inhibitory effect. The social expectation gap curtails consumption expenditure by diminishing household risk preference and enhancing precautionary saving motives. An increase in the liquidity ratio can notably mitigate the adverse effects of the income expectation gap on household consumption. Credit availability substantially alleviates the inhibitory impact of the social expectation gap on household consumption expenditure; however, this mitigating effect is less evident when considering the historical expectation gap. For high-income groups, households in central and western regions, and those headed by individuals with lower education levels, the income expectation gap exhibits a strong inhibitory influence. This study offers a novel perspective and empirical foundation for elucidating household consumption behavior and formulating policies aimed at stimulating consumer demand. Income Expectation Gap Consumption Dual-Dimensional Perspective Influence Mechanism Mitigation Pathways Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6211705","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":427895151,"identity":"3d365538-5e1d-4aa2-a070-633f49f4823a","order_by":0,"name":"Xiaoli Gan","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Guilin University of Electronic Technology","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Xiaoli","middleName":"","lastName":"Gan","suffix":""},{"id":427895152,"identity":"786339a1-11f8-4df3-9bb0-9fc59ed4c2d5","order_by":1,"name":"Yaqian Liu","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Guilin University of Electronic Technology","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Yaqian","middleName":"","lastName":"Liu","suffix":""},{"id":427895153,"identity":"7083c4f2-b1c7-4e3e-9e08-ef4816e392a8","order_by":2,"name":"Duan Huang","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Guilin University of Electronic Technology","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Duan","middleName":"","lastName":"Huang","suffix":""},{"id":427895155,"identity":"0c618ec9-a7c2-4e92-a020-e841ef553a29","order_by":3,"name":"Yuhao Chen","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Guilin University of Electronic Technology","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Yuhao","middleName":"","lastName":"Chen","suffix":""},{"id":427895156,"identity":"2d77891e-4e48-4894-b6ba-8a2497643cb8","order_by":4,"name":"Quan Yu","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAtElEQVRIiWNgGAWjYDADfmbmww9I0yLZzpZmQJoWg/M8ChJEqTSXPmMm8bbNLs/4MA+DAUONTTRBLZZ9OWaSc9uSi80O8x54wHAsLbeBoHvO8JhJ87YxJ247zJdgwNhwmGgt9Ymbm3kMJEjRcjhxAzOxWix72Iot55w7njjjMDCQE4jxizkP88Ybb8qqE/v7Dx9+8KHGhgiHMXAYMPDAeAmElEO0sD9AaBkFo2AUjIJRgA0AABUDOj9Aot8HAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"","institution":"Qiannan Normal College For Nationalities","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Quan","middleName":"","lastName":"Yu","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-03-12 11:38:19","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6211705/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6211705/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":84649104,"identity":"a53d1738-0226-4fd9-bcd8-9f32975775eb","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-06-15 20:01:43","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":439531,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"manuscript.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6211705/v1_covered_5a17c9f7-ea13-441d-ab42-984b55b82bfe.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Income Expectation Gaps from Historical and Social Dual Perspectives on Consumption: Influence Mechanism and Mitigating Pathways","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Income Expectation Gap, Consumption, Dual-Dimensional Perspective, Influence Mechanism, Mitigation Pathways","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6211705/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6211705/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"Based on the data from the China Household Finance Survey (CHFS), this paper employs the income expectation gap as an indicator to quantify psychological income loss. 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