Evaluating a Risk-Based Sampling Inspection Programme on Mexican Produce Imported on Trucks to the United States of America

Evaluating a Risk-Based Sampling Inspection Programme on Mexican Produce Imported on Trucks to the United States of America | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Evaluating a Risk-Based Sampling Inspection Programme on Mexican Produce Imported on Trucks to the United States of America Barney Caton, Scott Blackwood, Bruce Cheong, Ernie Hain, Darlene Judd, and 5 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6975800/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract We evaluated a risk-based sampling (RBS) inspection programme in a real-world trial with dynamic inspection frequencies on Mexican produce imported by truck through land border ports. The commodities were avocado, celery, papaya, and broccoli+cauliflower (combined). Some commodities were managed by region (Texas, or Arizona/California). Results were from September, 2018, to December, 2020, with trial lengths of either 27 (avocado and celery) or 19 months (others). Pest action rates, inspection rates, and leakage rates (acceptance of infested lots) were compared before and during the trial, and we estimated monthly time savings with RBS. Mean action rates were unchanged for three commodity-region combinations but increased significantly in three of the other four combinations. Inspection rates were consistently very low for avocado and papaya but were more variable for broccoli+cauliflower and celery. Estimated leakage rates were similar before and during the trial but were universally low (0.7 percent at most). Mean annual total inspection times increased by 21 percent for celery because reductions did not offset increases due to hypergeometric sampling, but over all commodities RBS gave 28 percent savings. This reduced-frequency RBS programme seemed well suited to broader application to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of agricultural safeguarding for imported fruits and vegetables. Applied Statistics Other Public Policy invasive pests Introduction Pathway Skip-lot sampling Full Text Additional Declarations The authors declare no competing interests. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6975800","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":476384499,"identity":"239bee61-15f2-4cd7-ba0d-d4f645085f68","order_by":0,"name":"Barney Caton","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA+0lEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBACAzS+DRAnEK+FsYGBIY10LYcJazFnP/vswcc2hjwG9sPPH3zccT5xfnvyA8YvFYdxarHsSTc3nNnGUMzAk2bYOPPM7cQNZ54ZMMucwa3F4EAamzRvG0NigwSDYTNvG1CLRIIBs2RbGm4t55+xSf8Fa2H/CNRyLnH+jPQP+LXcANrCCNbCA7LlQGLDjRwDxo9tNrj9MuMZm2TPOYliNp6cwpkz25KNN5x5U3CY4QxuLeb8aWwSP8ps8vjZj2/48LHNTnZ+e/rGhz8qJHBqAQNGNokENmSBwzz4NQDBH7ToY/xBUMsoGAWjYBSMIAAAtT9VftSrwVwAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6878-8389","institution":"U.S. Department of Agriculture","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Barney","middleName":"","lastName":"Caton","suffix":""},{"id":476389314,"identity":"7def7dce-07fe-4765-a312-eaf4aa4ed888","order_by":1,"name":"Scott Blackwood","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"U.S. Department of Agriculture","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Scott","middleName":"","lastName":"Blackwood","suffix":""},{"id":476389315,"identity":"c5d946e6-e735-4277-b6d6-6fb8e9fad186","order_by":2,"name":"Bruce Cheong","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Department of Homeland Security","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Bruce","middleName":"","lastName":"Cheong","suffix":""},{"id":476389316,"identity":"a4a854d6-c657-41a2-ba24-521af5e6c5be","order_by":3,"name":"Ernie Hain","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"U.S. Department of Agriculture","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Ernie","middleName":"","lastName":"Hain","suffix":""},{"id":476389317,"identity":"08d2895f-f9f0-429c-b2c1-5450b79cfd91","order_by":4,"name":"Darlene Judd","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"U.S. Department of Agriculture","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Darlene","middleName":"","lastName":"Judd","suffix":""},{"id":476389318,"identity":"29f565b2-6e68-48c5-b905-8a1d7aa3ca33","order_by":5,"name":"Alison Neeley","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"U.S. Department of Agriculture","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Alison","middleName":"","lastName":"Neeley","suffix":""},{"id":476389319,"identity":"65a0131e-c84e-47c0-9e57-eac51a6fd948","order_by":6,"name":"Jason Neil","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"U.S. Department of Agriculture","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Jason","middleName":"","lastName":"Neil","suffix":""},{"id":476389320,"identity":"433aa723-dbf0-4eee-a0af-c224ce5ea104","order_by":7,"name":"Craig Noble","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"U.S. Department of Agriculture","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Craig","middleName":"","lastName":"Noble","suffix":""},{"id":476389321,"identity":"94df9b96-8b65-4a78-8da9-806a16a12bcb","order_by":8,"name":"Jacob Rodler","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Department of Homeland Security","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Jacob","middleName":"","lastName":"Rodler","suffix":""},{"id":476389322,"identity":"9e4708eb-aa28-400e-86a5-2d0a619943ce","order_by":9,"name":"Irma Rodriquez","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Department of Homeland Security","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Irma","middleName":"","lastName":"Rodriquez","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-06-25 14:35:23","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":{"humanSubjects":false,"vertebrateSubjects":false,"conflictsOfInterestStatement":false,"humanSubjectEthicalGuidelines":false,"humanSubjectConsent":false,"humanSubjectClinicalTrial":false,"humanSubjectCaseReport":false,"vertebrateSubjectEthicalGuidelines":false},"doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6975800/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6975800/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":85484900,"identity":"14d9d311-cc4b-496c-9a6a-b959e103cf26","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-06-26 11:48:50","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":852937,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"CatonetalRBSTrialsMexicanProduce.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6975800/v1_covered_7ad2a070-edfe-4e8b-bb2b-a802d0da7afe.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"The authors declare no competing interests.","formattedTitle":"\u003cp\u003eEvaluating a Risk-Based Sampling Inspection Programme on Mexican Produce Imported on Trucks to the United States of America\u003c/p\u003e","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"United States Department of Agriculture","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"invasive pests, Introduction Pathway, Skip-lot sampling","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6975800/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6975800/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eWe evaluated a risk-based sampling (RBS) inspection programme in a real-world trial with dynamic inspection frequencies on Mexican produce imported by truck through land border ports. The commodities were avocado, celery, papaya, and broccoli+cauliflower (combined). Some commodities were managed by region (Texas, or Arizona/California). Results were from September, 2018, to December, 2020, with trial lengths of either 27 (avocado and celery) or 19 months (others). Pest action rates, inspection rates, and leakage rates (acceptance of infested lots) were compared before and during the trial, and we estimated monthly time savings with RBS. Mean action rates were unchanged for three commodity-region combinations but increased significantly in three of the other four combinations. Inspection rates were consistently very low for avocado and papaya but were more variable for broccoli+cauliflower and celery. Estimated leakage rates were similar before and during the trial but were universally low (0.7 percent at most). Mean annual total inspection times increased by 21 percent for celery because reductions did not offset increases due to hypergeometric sampling, but over all commodities RBS gave 28 percent savings. This reduced-frequency RBS programme seemed well suited to broader application to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of agricultural safeguarding for imported fruits and vegetables.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Evaluating a Risk-Based Sampling Inspection Programme on Mexican Produce Imported on Trucks to the United States of America","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-06-26 11:24:44","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6975800/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"1e2762fa-f8d4-4631-83b5-d2164ec02844","owner":[],"postedDate":"June 26th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[{"id":50588416,"name":"Applied Statistics"},{"id":50588417,"name":"Other Public Policy"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2025-06-26T11:24:44+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2025-06-26 11:24:44","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-6975800","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-6975800","identity":"rs-6975800","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}