Global, regional and national burden of cervical cancer in 1990-2023 with forecasts to 2050: a Global Burden of Disease study

Although highly preventable, cervical cancer remains one of the most common malignancies among women worldwide. As part of the Global Burden of Disease study, we estimated cervical cancer incidence, mortality and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) across 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2023, with forecasts to 2050. In 2023, 887,000 new cases (95% uncertainty interval 682,000-1,170,000), 369,000 deaths (292,000-475,000) and 13.3 million DALYs (10.1-17.4) were estimated globally. Age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) were more than four and seven times higher in low- versus high-income countries. Between 1990 and 2023, global ASIR was largely stable (-0.4% (-26.6 to 34.7)), whereas ASMR changed by -17.5% (-36.2 to 13.4). All cervical cancer DALYs were attributable to human papillomavirus infection, with tobacco use contributing 5.9% (3.2-9.3) globally. By 2050, global ASIR and ASMR are forecast to change by -12.5% (-25.7 to 3.5) and -9.0% (-21.5 to 6.6) from 2024, yet absolute cases and deaths are forecast to rise by 20.2% (4.6-38.5) and 39.3% (23.6-57.3). ASIR and ASMR are forecast to remain highest in low-income countries. Intensified action is needed to accelerate progress.