Climate-smart urbanization could reduce carbon and nitrogen emission in China

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Abstract Urbanization through rural-to-urban migration can increase energy consumption if people relocate to regions with challenging climates. Here, we show that traditional urbanization could result in a more than 60% rise in residential electricity consumption in China by 2050 compared to 2020 levels. In contrast, climate-smart urbanization, a strategy that considers energy consumption intensity in migration decisions, can reduce electricity consumption intensity and associated carbon and nitrogen emissions by up to 22%. This reduction primarily stems from decreased energy demands for temperature regulation in climate-appropriate regions, minimizing seasonal cooling and heating needs. These emission reductions could generate annual social benefits valued at US$16.8-28.6 billion, encompassing significant improvements in human health, climate stability, and ecosystem health. The preference for climate-appropriate regions and policy support in the context of future climate change is expected to improve the feasibility of climate-smart urbanization, promoting carbon neutrality and environmental sustainability in the future.
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Climate-smart urbanization could reduce carbon and nitrogen emission in China | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Climate-smart urbanization could reduce carbon and nitrogen emission in China Baojing Gu, Ouping Deng, Yueqiang He, Jinglan Cui, Rongfu Luo, and 1 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6043571/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Urbanization through rural-to-urban migration can increase energy consumption if people relocate to regions with challenging climates. Here, we show that traditional urbanization could result in a more than 60% rise in residential electricity consumption in China by 2050 compared to 2020 levels. In contrast, climate-smart urbanization, a strategy that considers energy consumption intensity in migration decisions, can reduce electricity consumption intensity and associated carbon and nitrogen emissions by up to 22%. This reduction primarily stems from decreased energy demands for temperature regulation in climate-appropriate regions, minimizing seasonal cooling and heating needs. These emission reductions could generate annual social benefits valued at US$16.8-28.6 billion, encompassing significant improvements in human health, climate stability, and ecosystem health. The preference for climate-appropriate regions and policy support in the context of future climate change is expected to improve the feasibility of climate-smart urbanization, promoting carbon neutrality and environmental sustainability in the future. Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Climate-change adaptation Scientific community and society/Social sciences/Carbon and energy Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Biogeochemistry Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files SIUrbaniXGHGv.250214.docx Supplementary Information for: Climate-smart urbanization could reduce carbon and nitrogen emission in China Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6043571","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":419859208,"identity":"8e38cb98-d804-414c-ab03-5538944825bb","order_by":0,"name":"Baojing Gu","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAuUlEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBACA4YDDAwfGNggbKK1MM4gUQsDAzMPgk0EMGc8fk3a5g9fYgN78zYJhpo7hLVYNpwpk87hYUts4DlWJsFw7BkRDjtwJk06RwKoRSLHTIKx4TCRWiwMgFrk3xCt5fgxaYYEkC08RGoB+oXZsucAm3EbT1qxRcIxIrSYSxx/eOPHn2Oy/eyHN974UEOEFgaJM6DoOAaJzAQiNDAw8Lc/AJI1RKkdBaNgFIyCEQoA8B44xNEqCuAAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3986-3519","institution":"Zhejiang University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Baojing","middleName":"","lastName":"Gu","suffix":""},{"id":419859209,"identity":"ee55243e-d6e9-4eda-abfc-9e5108021789","order_by":1,"name":"Ouping Deng","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Zhejiang University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Ouping","middleName":"","lastName":"Deng","suffix":""},{"id":419859210,"identity":"cc326276-ef81-4574-be9f-a4ebb5c9c74d","order_by":2,"name":"Yueqiang He","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Sichuan Agricultural University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Yueqiang","middleName":"","lastName":"He","suffix":""},{"id":419859211,"identity":"0640161f-4f60-4d0e-9e6b-43369aa3a45a","order_by":3,"name":"Jinglan Cui","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8487-0331","institution":"Zhejiang University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Jinglan","middleName":"","lastName":"Cui","suffix":""},{"id":419859212,"identity":"3b86940e-d779-43c2-b6a6-b74dea59c0ce","order_by":4,"name":"Rongfu Luo","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Sichuan Agricultural University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Rongfu","middleName":"","lastName":"Luo","suffix":""},{"id":419859213,"identity":"516802d5-9383-49f1-9c19-02e4b474a1d9","order_by":5,"name":"Xiaobo Wu","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Sichuan Agricultural University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Xiaobo","middleName":"","lastName":"Wu","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-02-17 01:50:14","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6043571/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6043571/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":80710972,"identity":"df1e2d71-a974-4caa-ac3f-22ab07caaacf","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-04-16 09:03:55","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1254613,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"MSUrbaniXGHGv.250214.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6043571/v1_covered_f9712ff6-fe30-478c-ad58-ed8cebf396b4.pdf"},{"id":77306959,"identity":"ae8273a1-6124-4772-887a-44eea1fcb6cf","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-02-27 09:11:41","extension":"docx","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":7245269,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Supplementary Information for\u0026#xFF1A; 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