Evaluating Baselines for Long-Term Ecological Monitoring of Biodiversity Trends: Insights from the US National Ecological Observatory Network Carabid Data

Evaluating Baselines for Long-Term Ecological Monitoring of Biodiversity Trends: Insights from the US National Ecological Observatory Network Carabid Data | Authorea try { document.documentElement.classList.add('js'); } catch (e) { } var _gaq = _gaq || []; _gaq.push(['_setAccount', 'G-8VDV14Y67G']); _gaq.push(['_trackPageview']); (function() { var ga = document.createElement('script'); ga.type = 'text/javascript'; ga.async = true; ga.src = ('https:' == document.location.protocol ? 'https://ssl' : 'http://www') + '.google-analytics.com/ga.js'; var s = document.getElementsByTagName('script')[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(ga, s); })(); Skip to main content Preprints Collections Wiley Open Research IET Open Research Ecological Society of Japan All Collections About About Authorea FAQs Contact Us Quick Search anywhere Search for preprint articles, keywords, etc. Search Search ADVANCED SEARCH SCROLL This is a preprint and has not been peer reviewed. Data may be preliminary. 30 March 2026 V2 Latest version Share on Evaluating Baselines for Long-Term Ecological Monitoring of Biodiversity Trends: Insights from the US National Ecological Observatory Network Carabid Data Authors : Ava Claus 0009-0003-4944-688X [email protected] , M. Andrew Johnston 0000-0002-0166-6985 , and Kelsey Yule 0000-0002-1447-849X Authors Info & Affiliations https://doi.org/10.22541/au.175567516.61743208/v2 Published Oikos Version of record Peer review timeline 307 views 167 downloads Contents Abstract Supplementary Material Information & Authors Metrics & Citations View Options References Figures Tables Media Share Abstract Evidence is mounting that rapid environmental change threatens global insect biodiversity, underscoring the need for informed conservation strategies that protect both species and the ecosystem services they provide. Armed with accurate baseline community data, long-term continental-scale monitoring projects are invaluable for detecting and predicting responses to ecological change. However, high species diversity and temporal variability in population sizes can hinder our ability to establish baselines, and, thus, obscure, exaggerate, or reverse temporal trends in long-term insect data. With its scale and consistent protocol, the US National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) carabid pitfall trapping data provides an excellent case study for evaluating sampling effort. We use species incidence-frequencies calculated from more than 200,000 identified carabids across up to 10 years of sampling and 46 field sites to extrapolate asymptotic richness and Shannon diversity. We find that the completeness of observed species richness and diversity is negatively related to year-to-year species turnover and diversity metrics themselves, but improves with increasing sampling duration. While observed Shannon diversity converges to asymptotic estimates within a few years, we find that NEON’s intensive sampling is unlikely to capture all species, even if no biodiversity loss occurs over its 30-year span. If the mechanisms driving these patterns can be understood, they hold important implications for optimizing sampling designs in studies focused on ecological change detection, particularly for diverse and temporally variable taxa. Our findings underscore the critical importance of long-term monitoring and prompt reconsideration of how we interpret trends in existing biodiversity data, given the complexity of establishing robust baselines. \citep{Claus_2026} This preprint has been updated after publication in Oikos . The peer-reviewed version is available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/oik.11943 . Minor differences between versions may exist. Supplementary Material File (evaluating baselines for long-term ecological monitoring of biodiversity trends- insights from the us national ecological observatory network carabid data.pdf) Download 2.15 MB Information & Authors Information Version history V1 Version 1 20 August 2025 V2 Version 2 30 March 2026 Peer review timeline Published Oikos Version of Record 16 Feb 2026 Published Copyright This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License Keywords biodiversity metrics carabids global change long-term ecological monitoring national ecological observatory network species turnover Authors Affiliations Ava Claus 0009-0003-4944-688X [email protected] Arizona State University View all articles by this author M. Andrew Johnston 0000-0002-0166-6985 Purdue College of Agriculture View all articles by this author Kelsey Yule 0000-0002-1447-849X Arizona State University View all articles by this author Metrics & Citations Metrics Article Usage 307 views 167 downloads .FvxKWukQNSOunydq8rnd { width: 100px; } Citations Download citation Ava Claus, M. Andrew Johnston, Kelsey Yule. Evaluating Baselines for Long-Term Ecological Monitoring of Biodiversity Trends: Insights from the US National Ecological Observatory Network Carabid Data. Authorea . 30 March 2026. DOI: https://doi.org/10.22541/au.175567516.61743208/v2 If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download. For more information or tips please see 'Downloading to a citation manager' in the Help menu . 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