The Environmental and Socioeconomic Effects of Tuberculosis Patients in the Southwest of China: a population-based study

The Environmental and Socioeconomic Effects of Tuberculosis Patients in the Southwest of China: a population-based study | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article The Environmental and Socioeconomic Effects of Tuberculosis Patients in the Southwest of China: a population-based study Lan Xia, Wen Wei, Zonglei Zhou, Wenqiang Zhang, Rongsheng Luan This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-1736046/v2 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 2 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Show more versions Abstract Objective : The objective of this study was to assess the incidence of tuberculosis (TB) and ind the risk factors of TB patients with a high burden of TB in socioeconomic level, the high level of TB incidence and the great changes of economic and social factors, explore the possible factors, construct scientiic and robust prediction model, and analyse whether the task of stopping TB can be accomplished by the ex- pected global deadline. Study design: This was an ecological study. Methods: Descriptive analysis, spatial and space-time scan, correlation analysis, and regression analysis were carried out, based on cases of TB in Sichuan Province and ecological data from 2006 to 2017, to explore the characters of TB and ecological factors, using the transfer functionenoise model to forecast the trend of TB until 2035. Results: Factors affecting the incidence of TB, increasing per capita green area, reporting status of TB among Tibetans and Yi minorities, comprehensive treatment management, total cost of TB per capita for urban residents, proportion of males with high school education, 20 to 20 h of 24-h accumulated precipitation, reducing HIV at the same time as AIDS deaths, the increase in the proportion of males in junior highschool education, and the increase in the number of registered TB cases can reduce the incidence of TB. Conclusions: There was concentration mainly on enhanced control of the environment and society measures, helpful in guiding government planning to control TB. Reinforcement is required to reduce the TB of population aged 15e24 and aged 25e64 in socioeconomic level by 2035. TB infection population socioeconomic environment risk Figures Figure 1 Figure 2 Figure 3 Figure 4 Figure 5 Background Global and national TB burden At present, more than 95% of TB patients in the world come from developing countries. The fifth epidemiological sampling survey of tuberculosis in China in 2011 showed that the annual incidence of tuberculosis in China was about 1.3 million, accounting for 14.3% of the global new cases, as one of the countries with high TB burden,r anking second in the world. WHO’s contribution to global tuberculosis morbidity and mortality [1,2] fully considering the impact of ecological data, indicating that the broader TB epidemic is affected by poverty, HIV infection, malnutrition and smoking. The World Bank’s global tuberculosis (TB) prediction takes into account social and environmental factors, including children with low birth weight, and education is required to reach a medium education level, literacy. In achieving the Sustainable Development Goals related to these and other determinants, most countries with a high burden of TB are facing huge challenges in terms of drug-resistance to TB, TB detection rates, TB treatment success rates, HIV The success rate of antiviral treatment for infected persons and patients. P revious studies on individual and ecological level variables Rose G proposed two risk factors: individual level variables and ecological level groups increase disease risk groups, and different groups of people are exposed or exposed to different risks [3] . Individual level variables of TB are multiple, including age, gender, education, occupation, marital status, smoking, drinking, income, medical insurance, a history of TB exposure, personal nutritional status, a history of TB, AIDS, diabetes. The researches on individual factors mainly obtained related risk factors through questionnaire surveys [4,5] . Myers WP et al. Analyzing the status of TB infection among children aged 0-14 from 1993 to 2002, it was found that the incidence of TB among poor and ethnic minority children affected the California area, and the per capita living area and population density had nothing to do with the incidence of TB in children [6] . Sun W believed that economic factors, population density and health services are related to TB in 2007. However, some scholars found that every thousand beds, the number of doctors per thousand, and the economic level were the influencing factors from 2002 to 2011 [8] . Furthermore, Wubuli A also found that the influencing factors of TB were the ratio of ethnic minorities to per capita GDP from 2006 to 2014 [9] . Most of the researches on outdoor air pollution and TB are mainly carried out in cities, however, the research of TB, affected by industrialization and urbanization, prone to occur in heavily polluted areas [10,11] needs to be done in both rural and urban areas. T he significance of current study The fifth TB epidemiological survey in Sichuan Province showed that Sichuan Province is still a high-burden province of TB in China, with active TB (448,000 cases), smear-positive TB (77,900 cases), and bacterial-positive TB (101,900 cases). Sichuan is in the southwest of China ,with more poorer areas than east China.Meanwhile, the prevalence of TB rates in Sichuan Province of China, were significantly higher than the average level in China, accounting for 8.98%, 10.82%, and 7.90% in China, respectively, thus, the detection rate of multi-drug-resistant tuberculosis in Sichuan Province was 4.2%. The development and changes of TB epidemic are related to social, economic, and various non-biological factors in addition to biological factors such as TB resistance and HIV infection [2,12] .The geographical features of the mountains and basins in Sichuan Province have restricted the diffusion of pollutants. Additionally, different countries and regions have different findings on the relationship between the above-mentioned social, economic, environmental factors and TB. This study carried out an exploratory study of multiple factors in Sichuan with a various of geographical diversity and a higher TB burden province of a 3rd TB burden country [48,49] . There is a huge need to search for the characteristics, the clustering features, complex multiple ecological factors related to TB and to forecast the trend by 2035 in socioeconomic level, to provide evidence for the prevention and control measurement in Sichuan of China. The transfer function is the ratio of the Laplace transform (or z-transform) of the response (the output) to the Laplace transform ( the input) of a linear system under zero-initial conditions. G (s) = y (s) /U (s) , where Y (s) and U (s) are the Laplace transform of output and input, respectively. Transfer function is one of the basic mathematical tools to describe the dynamic characteristics of linear systems. The main research methods of classical control theory are based on transfer function. Transfer function is one of the main tools to study classical control theory. Transfer function is a multivariable time series analysis model.Transfer Function Model, also known as system function, transfer function or network function, the curve drawn is called transfer curve, which is used to fit or describe the black box model (system) of the relationship between the input and output of the mathematical representation. In general, the transfer function is the relationship between the input and output of a linear time-invariant system with spatial or temporal frequencies at zero initial conditions and zero equilibrium points. Grey Prediction Model (general) solves the problem of prediction type. Due to the gray box model, during the general competition is not preferred. Two conditions can be satisfied: 1 the number of data samples 6 more than 2 data in the form of exponential or curve, data fluctuations are not largeTime series prediction is to predict the overall trend of data changes, there is one, two, three exponential smoothing method, relatively simple, the effect is better. Regression analysis and prediction, to find a dependent variable and a number of independent variables of the relationship between, if the independent variable changes, how the dependent variable changes. The number of sample points is required: the covariance between independent variables is small, preferably approaching 0, and the correlation between independent variables is small; the number of sample points N > 3K + 1, K is the number of prediction. Park green area per capita (square meters), proportion of ethnic tibetans in cases ,proportion of ethnic yi people in cases ,enrollment number (secondary school and above),proportion of treatment management method full-process management,total expenditure of urban residents per capita ,male with high school education,cumulative precipitation at 24 hours(20:00-20:00) could cut down the spread of TB increase. HIV/AIDS deaths, male junior high school education,total number of registered TB cases may add the incidence of TB. All the related economic and social factors decide the change of the appearance of tuberculosis, which makes the medium-and long-term prediction model of tuberculosis more robust. The whole flow chart of the selection and proceedings of the study, see Figure 5. We use pre-analysis for TB data and factors to forecast the trends of TB. Methods Definition The definition of reported TB cases are a total number of smear-positive TB, culture-positive TB, bacteriological positive TB, and others, including tuberculous pleurisy, other extra-pulmonary TB, smear positive patients, smear negative patients, patients without sputum examination, while in type I to type V TB. TB incidence is calculated by new cases and divided by population every year. Sichuan Province (prefecture), county (city, district) vector adopts 2009 China county-level administrative division electronic map (1.4 million), provided by China Geographic Information Center, of which 21 cities, states and 181 districts (counties, cities) of administrative divisions from the 2007-2017 Statistical Yearbook of the Sichuan Provincial Bureau of Statistics, due to online opening resources: National Bureau of Statistics (http://data.stats.gov.cn) and Sichuan Provincial Bureau of Statistics ( http://tjj.sc.gov.cn/ ). Data Source The information about HIV/AIDS and TB new reports came from the "TB information management system" of the "communicable disease information network direct reporting system"from the Sichuan CDC. Ecological data and other materials, including five aspects: other diseases and health resources, economy and social security, pollutants and afforestation forestry and meteorology, population structure and marriage and habits, educational investment and education level, according to the link resources made public by the Internet( http://tjj.sc.gov.cn/ ). Statistical Analysis According to the characteristics of the TB epidemic in Sichuan, descriptive analysis and a hierarchical Bayesian spatio-temporal analysis were used, with the transfer function noise model to forecast the trend. By descriptive analysis, Spatial and Space-Time Scan In view of descriptive analysis to explore the characters of TB and ecological factors; spatio-temporal scanning statistics to show the clustering areas of TB; single factor analysis (Pearson) and linear regression analysis to evaluate relevant factors of TB; sing transfer function noise models to predict the trends of TB until 2035, using SPSS 20.0 software, SatScan v9.5 software, ArcGis 10.2 software. The difference was statistically significant (P<0.05). Through Durbin-watson (DW) test to test the autocorrelation of residuals, the test statistics are: Durbin-watson 2 indicates no autocorrelation; 4 indicates complete negative autocorrelation. The linear regression adopts the stepwise regression analysis method, and uses multiple models to fit and to achieve a better R 2 value in four different age groups. Finally, only the best model was used for display. The noise model of transfer function is the organic combination of time series analysis and regression analysis in theory, so it includes the lag distribution model of metrology: The transfer function model fitted by the ARIMA model by time series, using expert modeling and adding independent variables for model fitted to chose the variables through the fit data and predict data, used models to find better one, compared with the real TB data in 2018.Transfer function noise model, the expert modeler can select the optimal model from multiple fitted models, and the R 2 value reaches the ideal state. Results Epidemiological Character and spatio-temporal scan During 2006 to 2017, 783,735 TB cases of new report were enrolled in Sichuan, with an average annual reported incidence rate of 80.14 per 100,000. Compared with 2006, the 12-year incidence rate dropped by an average of 3.00% in 2017. Figure 1 revealed that, within this 12 years, the incidence decreased significantly (trend χ 2 =17991.7, P<0.001) , except for the peaks of 83687 in 2008, 81232 in 2006, and 52147 in 2017, other years showed a downward trend. Simultaneously, top TB incidence rates (1/100,000) in 5 cities of 21 cities (prefectures) in whole Sichuan Province from 2006 to 2017: Ganzi Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture, Aba Tibetan and Qiang Autonomous Prefecture, Guangyuan City, Liangshan Yi Autonomous Prefecture, Dazhou City, see Figure 2. In addition, the spatio-temporal scanning statistics revealed that the new report cases of TB in Sichuan Province displayed spatio-temporal clustering ( P< 0.001), and 5 high-risk clustering areas were scanned. Linshui County was the aggregation center,while the aggregation radius was 237.17 Km, moreover, the aggregation time was from 2006 to 2011, see Figure 3. Univariate analysis Table S1 showed that TB was positively correlated with the mortality of respiratory diseases, the average length of hospitalization (invasive TB), the number of newly registered smear-positive TB, and the number of people cured (P<0.05). TB was positively correlated with double TB/HIV, existing HIV/AIDS, and HIV /AIDS new report, HIV/AIDS deaths, diabetes mortality, total health expenditure as a percentage of GDP (%), number of medical and health institutions per thousand people, the health technicians in the infectious disease hospital, the BCG vaccination rate (%) , and the other factors(P<0.05)(Table S1). Meanwhile, Table S2 showed unemployment rate (%) and rural employees (10,000 people) were significantly positively correlated with the incidence of TB (P<0.05). TB is positively correlated with SO 2 emissions (tons), No x emissions (tons),total wastewater discharges (tons), chemical oxygen demand (tons), ammonia nitrogen emissions (tons), per capita park green area (square meters), forest area (10,000 hectares), forest resource coverage (%) and other factors (P<0.05), see Table S3. Table S4 showed that TB and child support ratio (%), population composition of 0-14 years old (%), total number of spouses (%), women with spouse (%), total number of widows (%), total number of widows (%), men who are widowed (%) was positively correlated (P<0.05). There is a positive correlation between TB and total illiteracy rate (%), illiteracy rate (male) (%), illiteracy rate (female) (%), girls never attended school (%), total primary school (%), primary school boys (%), primary school girls (%) (P <0.05),see Table S5. Multivariate analysis Linear regression Linear regression displayed the incidence rate of forest fires (hectares), single-resistance rate (%), male junior high school education (%), second-hand smoke exposure rate of non-smokers (%), and cure rate (%) are possible risk factors for the incidence of TB, see Table 1. In addition, the regression model has the multi-collinearity, and the Durbin-Watson values are 0.211, 0.232, and 0.216, respectively. The results of multi-factor analysis showed that the factors affecting the incidence of TB in the Sichuan population were different from the male/female population(P<0.05)(Table 1). Trend of TB incidence The transfer function noise showed that the trends of incidence of TB in the whole population aged 0-14, 15-24, 25-64, and 65-year-old in 2035 will be -2.16/100,000, 95.00/100,000, and 6.5916/100,000, -33.00/100,000, respectively( Figures 4). In 2035, the incidence of TB in the population aged 0-14, the population aged 15-24, and the population aged 25-64 could not be reduced to 0, and the incidence of TB in the population aged 65- could be reduced to zero in 2035.The incidence of TB in the whole population aged 15-24 and aged 25-64 has an increasing trend( Figure 4). Discussion Main Findings This study showed that the most comprehensive ecological correlation and time-series trend forecast analyses to investigate the associations of ecological factors with TB epidemic and the secular trend of TB incidence and placed tremendous pressure and extra burden, aged 15-24 and aged 25-64, on local public health resources in Sichuan. About the urban residents’ expenditures, males (%), high school education could reduce the incidence of TB in Sichuan, respectively. Moreover, the increase in the proportion of men with junior high school education may increase the risk of TB incidence. In 2017, the WHO found that the incidence of malnutrition mainly depends on clean fuels, per capita GDP, income inequality, and the proportion of urban population living in slums is related to the incidence of TB (TB) [1] .The higher the economic level, the more urban employment opportunities, the higher the income, the better the nutritional conditions, the more medical resources, the better the availability and allocation of medical services, and the lower the incidence of TB. The national epidemiological sample survey found that the prevalence of TB in the western region was significantly higher than that in the eastern region (with better economic benefits) [11] . In our study, the spatio-temporal scanning statistics showed 5 high-risk clustering areas Linshui County was the aggregation center, which located in the east of Sichuan Province, having lower GDP and per capita income from 2006 to 2011, 14% increase of Linshui County in GDP in 2012, the control measures of TB in this areas were be strengthened, so the TB aggregation center changed after 2012. Thus, this areas still should strengthen tuberculosis control and economic development, considering the weak economic and a high incidence of tuberculosis in the past. Lonnroth K [13] suggested that the research focus of India, Brazil and other countries should also be included in the future transnational TB control, such as various direct and potential social impact factors of TB. While Liao CM [14] found that the average incidence of TB in eastern Taiwan is relatively high. Ethnic minorities live in impoverished areas with the highest rate of TB recurrence (8.17%). Moreover, Li Ting et al. [15] found that 56 cases of active pulmonary TB patients found that poor initial treatment promoted the increase of pulmonary TB. Thus, Janssens et al. [16] used the methods of WHO and the World Bank to analyze the relationship between per capita GDP and TB incidence in India, China, and the United Kingdom, and there was a negative correlation between the two. The government's TB prevention and treatment fund has provided certain support and strategic significance for the epidemic control of TB [19-21] .Why more payments to TB, the more cases? Considering that there may be a lag effect, while considering improved the ability of TB detection and diagnosis and reporting increased. In addition funds allocated to different regions unreasonable, there may be key nodes in the prevention, need further economical evaluation. Age and sex also have a great influence on TB cases [17-25] . The higher the level of male junior high school education, the more cases of TB will be reported. The possible reason is that TB closely related to the body's immunity, is affected by various bad habits. Personal health knowledge and good hygiene habits are important to ensure the body’s immunity [19,26-28] and to control diseases. The higher the education level, the lower the reported incidence of TB [29-35] . It found in this study, why a certain educational level could cut down the incidence of TB, not the highest education level that need further cohort study. Thus,Yang JD [36] pointed out that the higher the population density, the higher the incidence of TB. According to Tanrikulu AC, in Turkey, the incidence of TB in high-density cities (>80 people/km²) is 4.18 times that of low-density cities. And Sun and Mangtani found that severe TB outbreaks occurred in areas with low economic levels and low population densities [7,37] . The prevalence of TB among students is high, and the number of people in the living room is positively correlated with the epidemic of TB [38,39,40] , including crowds gathering in public places (schools, prisons and medical institutions) to live, study and work, and public transportation [41,42]. , causing Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection, and we found that more green areas and humidity, fewer cases of TB, considering to increase more green areas which maybe changed the TB new cases. Forests can improve the micro-environment and air humidity, reduce dust, and possibly reduce the presence of TB droplet nuclei, thereby reducing the incidence of TB. Therefore, the humidification of the active area should be strengthened to prevent long-term activities in a dry and closed environment. While Valenca MS et al. [41] found that the epidemic of TB in prisons was serious, 69 times that of normal people. In addition, due to the small population density, the transmission of infectious diseases has been weakened to a certain extent [20] . Zhou WJ found that the SFRP1 gene may be a susceptibility gene for TB. It is suggested that the gene polymorphsim (CTNNB1) in Tibetan and Han populations have different genetic backgrounds [43] . Furthermore, Zou Bo suggested reducing contact with TB patients, strengthening prevention, improving the quality of life, changing bad living habits and lack of exercise, and playing an active role in preventing and controlling the occurrence of TB. Previous studies have found that proper physical exercise can enhance physical fitness [1,6,21] and reduce infections. Physical exercise can improve immunity and is a protective factor for the onset of TB. Different marital status may affect the incidence of TB. Divorced and unmarried women have a low incidence of TB. Marriage is not a protective factor for TB [22-26,44] . Male workers have a wider range of social activities, contacting infected people, and then marrying infected women. The rate of smoking and drinking among men is higher than that of women, which makes men more likely to be infected with Mycobacterium tuberculosis or progress to active TB [27] . Exposure to secondhand smoke is an independent risk factor for the disease [45] . However, our study did not found secondhand smoke is an independent risk factor, even smoking . Additionally, Li XX's research found that in China, the number of hospital beds, number of doctors, and economic level per thousand people are negatively correlated with the epidemic of TB. Primary care institutions and infectious disease hospitals can help reduce the incidence of TB [8] .Since 2003, the incidence of TB among native Hawaiians/other Pacific islands, American-born Indians/Alaska natives has remained high. At the same time, among Latin Americans, non-Latin Americans, Asians, whites and blacks, if they do not receive treatment, TB screening and treatment are suitable for permanent residents who come to the United States [6] . As the number of TB cases decreases, the number of HIV/AIDS deaths will also decrease because there will be a large number of dual infections that affect the immune system. In 2016, WHO reported that 57% of TB patients had recorded HIV test results, up from 55% in 2015. The treatment success rate for AIDS-related TB is 78% (2015 cohort) and 30% (2014 cohort).At the same time, Bassili A et al. [38] believed that the unreasonable allocation of health resources leading to delays in the diagnosis and treatment of TB patients is also an important reason for the spread of TB in many developing countries. Moreover, infectious disease hospitals in Sichuan are limited and do not rely on the deployment of 21 cities (prefectures). Chengdu infectious disease hospitals, infectious disease prevention and control are difficult to increase significantly. At the same time as health technicians, the strategy to curb tuberculosis will be in 2030 [46] . The lack of the infectious disease hospitals and accessibility, caused the TB cases could not be screening from the normal population, then this disease spreads and delays actual treatment. It must also be aware about the impact that smoking and diabetes pandemics may be not having on the incidence of TB, which was not the same as other findings [47] . In addition, the existence of a fit TB Prevention and Control Measurement is essential to fight against TB [47] . According to the epidemiological situation, each country, each province and each city, each county should define their own real needs [48,49] , even though a difficulty. In other researchers’s study, high TB incidence areas were mainly concentrated in south-western Qinghai, while low TB incidence areas clustered in eastern and north-western Qinghai [50] . However, Wang et al. [51] found Hotspots of TB incidence risk among the elderly were mostly located in north-eastern and southern areas in the study region in China [50] . Through scanning, more understanding of the meteorological effects on the seasonality of these viruses would be helpful in guiding public health interventions [52] . Local TB control measurement would have to adapt to any new challenge that generated in order to respond to the needs of their own population, even if it may have a certain various and different from other areas or different gender groups. Limitations This study is limited to reported TB cases in the Southwest of China; therefore, the factors we identified may not be fully and perfectly generalized to all settings. There were a certain limitations in primary data bias for just reported new cases and some cases maybe not be enrolled for some reasons. There is selection bias, there are cases of tuberculosis that have not been detected by various sources of detection, Sensitivity and specificity of detection methods, detection capability and level of detection, case quality of reporting and diagnostic ability, there are some missing cases in the data. Further cohort studies and RCT are needed.Because of the incidence affected by comprehensive factors, while some factors do not show a causal relationship, further prospective study is needed. Conclusion In summary, this study systematically and quantitatively described the explanatory power of different social and environmental variables on TB incidence and forecast in southwest of China. We detected spatiotemporal distribution for all districts and the dominant factor varied by increaseing greening efforts, ethnic minority screening, tuberculosis treatment management, urban residents’ income, the proportion of male high school education, precipitation, junior high school male education ratio, while reduceing HIV/AIDS mortality, which help to control the incidence of TB in socioeconomic level for public health interventions and government infection control practice,while till 2035, aged 15-24 and aged 25-64 need to focus on controling the rising trend in the southwest of China. Declarations Acknowledgments We appreciated Prof. Jianwei Zhao and Prof. Chuang Chen for study design and written, and Prof. Shujuan Yang, Prof. Fangfang Zeng, Dr.Sui Zhu for revising the manuscript. Funding Not applicable. Disclaimer Not applicable. Competing interests The authors all declare that they have no competing interests. Patient consent for publication Not applicable. 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Millet JP, Moreno A, Fina L, del Bano L, Orcau A, de Olalla PG, et al. Factors that influence current tuberculosis epidemiology. Eur Spine J 2013 Jun;22(Suppl 4):539e48. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00586-012-2334-8. Epub 2012 May 8. PMID: 22565801; PMCID: PMC3691414. 48. World Health Organization. Global tuberculosis report 2021. Geneva: World Health Organization; 2021. 49. Organization Who. Global tuberculosis report 2020. Geneva: World Health Or- ganization; 2020. 50. Rao HX, Zhang X, Zhao L, Yu J, Ren W, Zhang XL, et al. Spatial transmission and meteorological determinants of tuberculosis incidence in Qinghai Province, China: a spatial clustering panel analysis. Infect Dis Poverty 2016 Jun 2;5(1):45. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40249-016-0139-4. PMID: 27251154; PMCID: PMC4890510. 51. Wang L, Xu C, Hu M, QiaoJ, Chen W, Li T, et al. Spatio-temporal variation in tuberculosis incidence and risk factors for the disease in a region of unbalanced socio-economic development. BMC Public Health 2021 Oct 9;21(1):1817. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-021-11833-2. PMID: 34627189; PMCID: PMC8501584. 52. Xu B, Wang J, Li Z, Xu C, Liao Y, Hu M, et al. Seasonal association between viral causes of hospitalised acute lower respiratory infections and meteo- rological factors in China: a retrospective study. Lancet Planet Health 2021 Mar;5(3):e154e63. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(20)30297-7. PMID: 33713616. Tables Table 1 Multivariate analysis of tuberculosis by sex in Sichuan Province Model classification sub option B t P 95% confidence intervals Lower limit Upper limit Model 1: (constant) 93.4 15944622.537 <0.001 93.400 93.400 (Dependent variable: incidence rate in the whole population) Park green area per capita (square meters) -3.922 -3972550.519 <0.001 -3.922 -3.922 Durbin-Watson: 0.211 HIV/AIDS deaths (cases) 0.001 467275.626 <0.001 0.001 0.001 Male junior high school education (%) 0.34 1675682.533 <0.001 0.340 0.340 Proportion of ethnic Tibetans in cases (%) -1.058 -6865129.386 <0.001 -1.058 -1.058 Total number of registered cases (cases) 0.001 3358164.669 <0.001 0.001 0.001 Proportion of ethnic Yi people in cases (%) -0.937 -1047194.388 <0.001 -0.937 -0.937 Enrollment number (secondary school and above) -3.25E-06 -1742290.959 <0.001 0.000 0.000 Proportion of treatment management method full-process management (%) -0.218 -482599.821 <0.001 -0.218 -0.218 Total expenditure of urban residents per capita (yuan) -2.74E-05 -121480.614 <0.001 0.000 0.000 Male with high school education (%) -0.003 -8404.267 <0.001 -0.003 -0.003 Cumulative precipitation at 24 hours(20:00-20:00) -6.14E-06 -67.131 <0.001 0.000 0.000 Model 2: (constant) 306.989 36485998.512 <0.001 306.989 306.989 (Dependent variable: male incidence) Rural subsistence allowance (ten thousand yuan) -3.40E-05 -1808357.628 <0.001 0.000 0.000 Durbin-Watson: 0.232 Proportion of patients in custody (%) -5.082 -8990191.054 <0.001 -5.082 -5.082 Average relative humidity -2.375 -6179930.721 <0.001 -2.375 -2.375 Other proportions of case registration classification (%) 7.947 4173174.519 <0.001 7.947 7.947 Number of beds in medical and health institutions per thousand population -3.865 -1505179.715 <0.001 -3.865 -3.865 Occupation is the proportion of workers (%) -1.62 -2420998.589 <0.001 -1.620 -1.620 The actual treatment management method, the whole-process management ratio (%) -0.274 -700779.321 <0.001 -0.274 -0.274 High school education %) -0.169 -316600.362 <0.001 -0.169 -0.169 Proportion with spouse (%) -0.114 -662147.114 <0.001 -0.114 -0.114 Proportion of systemic management of tuberculosis (%) 0 -8710.331 <0.001 0.000 0.000 Forest area (ten thousand hectares) -2.66E-06 -177.664 <0.001 0.000 0.000 Model 3: (constant) 194.786 5473018.331 <0.001 194.785 194.786 (Dependent variable: female incidence rate) Park green area per capita (square meters) -2.048 -2708897.164 <0.001 -2.048 -2.048 Durbin-Watson: 0.216 Primary medical and health institutions -0.002 -4437608.350 <0.001 -0.002 -0.002 Proportion of referral from patient source (%) -0.193 -1374050.513 <0.001 -0.193 -0.193 Divorce ratio (%) -0.853 -1078359.283 <0.001 -0.853 -0.853 Total area of forest fire field (hectare) 0.000 -706285.744 <0.001 0.000 0.000 Proportion of widows (%) -0.406 -588956.124 <0.001 -0.406 -0.406 Proportion of single drug resistance (%) 0.237 254832.540 <0.001 0.237 0.237 Junior high school education male (%) 0.019 67019.846 <0.001 0.019 0.019 Exposure rate of second-hand smoke among non-smokers (%) 0.005 30919.146 <0.001 0.005 0.005 Proportion of stopping cause cured (%) 0.001 8960.237 <0.001 0.001 0.001 Additional Declarations The authors declare no competing interests. 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18:50:48","extension":"doc","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":1029047,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Supplementalmaterials.doc","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-1736046/v2/74eb7c02fd57481fb431dfd2.doc"}],"financialInterests":"The authors declare no competing interests.","formattedTitle":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eThe Environmental and Socioeconomic Effects of Tuberculosis Patients in the Southwest of China: a population-based study\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","fulltext":[{"header":"Background","content":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eGlobal and national TB burden\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAt present, more than 95% of TB patients in the world come from developing countries. The fifth epidemiological sampling survey of tuberculosis in China in 2011 showed that the annual incidence of tuberculosis in China was about 1.3 million, accounting for 14.3% of the global new cases, as one of the countries with high TB burden,r anking second in the world. WHO\u0026rsquo;s contribution to global tuberculosis morbidity and mortality \u003csup\u003e[1,2]\u003c/sup\u003e fully considering the impact of ecological data, indicating that the broader TB epidemic is affected by poverty, HIV infection, malnutrition and smoking. The World Bank\u0026rsquo;s global tuberculosis (TB) prediction takes into account social and environmental factors, including children with low birth weight, and education is required to reach a medium education level, literacy. In achieving the Sustainable Development Goals related to these and other determinants, most countries with a high burden of TB are facing huge challenges in terms of drug-resistance to TB, TB detection rates, TB treatment success rates, HIV The success rate of antiviral treatment for infected persons and patients.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eP\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cstrong\u003erevious studies on individual and ecological level variables\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eRose G proposed two risk factors: individual level variables and ecological level groups increase disease risk groups, and different groups of people are exposed or exposed to different risks \u003csup\u003e[3]\u003c/sup\u003e.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIndividual level variables of TB are multiple, including age, gender, education, occupation, marital status, smoking, drinking, income, medical insurance, a history of TB exposure, personal nutritional status, a history of TB, AIDS, diabetes. The researches on individual factors mainly obtained related risk factors through questionnaire surveys\u003csup\u003e\u0026nbsp;[4,5]\u003c/sup\u003e.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eMyers WP et al. Analyzing the status of TB infection among children aged 0-14 from 1993 to 2002, it was found that the incidence of TB among poor and ethnic minority children affected the California area, and the per capita living area and population density had nothing to do with the incidence of TB in children \u003csup\u003e[6]\u003c/sup\u003e. Sun W believed that economic factors, population density and health services are related to TB in 2007. However, some scholars found that every thousand beds, the number of doctors per thousand, and the economic level were the influencing factors from 2002 to 2011 \u003csup\u003e[8]\u003c/sup\u003e. Furthermore, Wubuli A also found that the influencing factors of TB were the ratio of ethnic minorities to per capita GDP from 2006 to 2014\u003csup\u003e[9]\u003c/sup\u003e .\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eMost of the researches on outdoor air pollution and TB are mainly carried out in cities, however, the research of TB, affected by industrialization and urbanization, prone to occur in heavily polluted areas \u003csup\u003e[10,11]\u0026nbsp;\u003c/sup\u003e\u0026nbsp; needs to be done in both rural and urban areas.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eT\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cstrong\u003ehe significance of current study\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe fifth TB epidemiological survey in Sichuan Province showed that Sichuan Province is still a high-burden province of TB in China, with active TB (448,000 cases), smear-positive TB (77,900 cases), and bacterial-positive TB (101,900 cases). Sichuan is in the southwest of China ,with more poorer areas than east China.Meanwhile, the prevalence of TB rates in Sichuan Province of China, were significantly higher than the average level in China, accounting for 8.98%, 10.82%, and 7.90% in China, respectively, thus, the detection rate of multi-drug-resistant tuberculosis in Sichuan Province was 4.2%.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe development and changes of TB epidemic are related to social, economic, and various non-biological factors in addition to biological factors such as TB resistance and HIV infection \u003csup\u003e[2,12]\u003c/sup\u003e.The geographical features of the mountains and basins in Sichuan Province have restricted the diffusion of pollutants.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAdditionally, different countries and regions have different findings on the relationship between the above-mentioned social, economic, \u0026nbsp;environmental factors and TB. This study carried out an exploratory study of multiple factors in Sichuan with a various of geographical diversity and a higher TB burden province of a 3rd TB burden country\u003csup\u003e[48,49]\u003c/sup\u003e. There is a huge need to search for the characteristics, the clustering features, complex multiple ecological factors related to TB and to forecast the trend by 2035 in socioeconomic level, to provide evidence for the prevention and control measurement in Sichuan of China.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe transfer function is the ratio of the Laplace transform (or z-transform) of the response (the output) to the Laplace transform ( the input) of a linear system under zero-initial conditions. G (s) = y (s) /U (s) , where Y (s) and U (s) are the Laplace transform of output and input, respectively. Transfer function is one of the basic mathematical tools to describe the dynamic characteristics of linear systems. The main research methods of classical control theory are based on transfer function. Transfer function is one of the main tools to study classical control theory. Transfer function is a multivariable time series analysis model.Transfer Function Model, also known as system function, transfer function or network function, the curve drawn is called transfer curve, which is used to fit or describe the black box model (system) of the relationship between the input and output of the mathematical representation. In general, the transfer function is the relationship between the input and output of a linear time-invariant system with spatial or temporal frequencies at zero initial conditions and zero equilibrium points.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eGrey Prediction Model (general) solves the problem of prediction type. Due to the gray box model, during the general competition is not preferred. Two conditions can be satisfied: 1 the number of data samples 6 more than 2 data in the form of exponential or curve, data fluctuations are not largeTime series prediction is to predict the overall trend of data changes, there is one, two, three exponential smoothing method, relatively simple, the effect is better.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eRegression analysis and prediction, to find a dependent variable and a number of independent variables of the relationship between, if the independent variable changes, how the dependent variable changes. The number of sample points is required: the covariance between independent variables is small, preferably approaching 0, and the correlation between independent variables is small; the number of sample points N \u0026gt; 3K + 1, K is the number of prediction.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003ePark green area per capita (square meters), proportion of ethnic tibetans in cases ,proportion of ethnic yi people in cases ,enrollment number (secondary school and above),proportion of treatment management method full-process management,total expenditure of urban residents per capita ,male with high school education,cumulative precipitation at 24 hours(20:00-20:00) could cut down the spread of TB increase. HIV/AIDS deaths, male junior high school education,total number of registered TB cases may add the incidence of TB.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAll the related economic and social factors decide the change of the appearance of tuberculosis, which makes the medium-and long-term prediction model of tuberculosis more robust.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe whole flow chart of the selection and proceedings of the study, see Figure 5. We use pre-analysis for TB data and factors to forecast the trends of TB.\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"Methods","content":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eDefinition\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe definition of reported TB cases are a total number of smear-positive TB, culture-positive TB, bacteriological positive TB, and others, including tuberculous pleurisy, other extra-pulmonary TB, smear positive patients, smear negative patients, patients without sputum examination, while in type I to type V TB. TB incidence is calculated by new cases and divided by population every year.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eSichuan Province (prefecture), county (city, district) vector adopts 2009 China county-level administrative division electronic map (1.4 million), provided by China Geographic Information Center, of which 21 cities, states and 181 districts (counties, cities) of administrative divisions from the 2007-2017 Statistical Yearbook of the Sichuan Provincial Bureau of Statistics, due to online opening resources: National Bureau of Statistics (http://data.stats.gov.cn) and Sichuan Provincial Bureau of Statistics\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e( \u003ca href=\"http://tjj.sc.gov.cn/\"\u003ehttp://tjj.sc.gov.cn/\u003c/a\u003e ).\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eData Source\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe information about HIV/AIDS and TB new reports came from the \u0026quot;TB information management system\u0026quot; of the \u0026quot;communicable disease information network direct reporting system\u0026quot;from the Sichuan CDC.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eEcological data and other materials, including five aspects: other diseases and health resources, economy and social security, pollutants and afforestation forestry and meteorology, population structure and marriage and habits, educational investment and education level, according to the link resources made public by the Internet( \u003ca href=\"http://tjj.sc.gov.cn/\"\u003ehttp://tjj.sc.gov.cn/\u003c/a\u003e ).\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eStatistical Analysis\u0026nbsp;\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAccording to the characteristics of the TB epidemic in Sichuan, descriptive analysis and a hierarchical Bayesian spatio-temporal analysis were used, with the transfer function noise model to forecast the trend.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eBy descriptive analysis, Spatial and Space-Time Scan\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIn view of descriptive analysis to explore the characters of TB and ecological factors; spatio-temporal scanning statistics to show the clustering areas of TB; single factor analysis (Pearson) and linear regression analysis to evaluate relevant factors of TB; sing transfer function noise models to predict the trends of TB until 2035, using SPSS 20.0 software, SatScan v9.5 software, ArcGis 10.2 software. The difference was statistically significant (P\u0026lt;0.05).\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThrough Durbin-watson (DW) test to test the autocorrelation of residuals, the test statistics are:\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cimg src=\"data:image/png;base64,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\" height=\"131\" width=\"301\"\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eDurbin-watson 2 indicates no autocorrelation; 4 indicates complete negative autocorrelation.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe linear regression adopts the stepwise regression analysis method, and uses multiple models to fit and to achieve a better R\u003csup\u003e2\u003c/sup\u003e value in four different age groups. Finally, only the best model was used for display.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe noise model of transfer function is the organic combination of time series analysis and regression analysis in theory, so it includes the lag distribution model of metrology:\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cimg src=\"data:image/png;base64,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\" width=\"666\" height=\"91\"\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe transfer function model fitted by the ARIMA model by time series, using expert modeling and adding independent variables for model fitted to chose the variables through the fit data and predict data, used models to find better one, compared with the real TB data in 2018.Transfer function noise model, the expert modeler can select the optimal model from multiple fitted models, and the R\u003csup\u003e2\u003c/sup\u003e value reaches the ideal state.\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"Results","content":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eEpidemiological Character and spatio-temporal scan\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eDuring 2006 to 2017, 783,735 TB cases of new report were enrolled in Sichuan, with an average annual reported incidence rate of 80.14 per 100,000. Compared with 2006, \u0026nbsp;the 12-year incidence rate dropped by an average of 3.00% in 2017. Figure 1 revealed that, within this 12 years, the incidence decreased significantly (trend \u0026chi;\u003csup\u003e2\u003c/sup\u003e=17991.7, P\u0026lt;0.001) , except for the peaks of 83687 in 2008, 81232 in 2006, and 52147 in 2017, other years showed a downward trend.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eSimultaneously, top TB incidence rates (1/100,000) in 5 cities of 21 cities (prefectures) in whole Sichuan Province from 2006 to 2017: Ganzi Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture, Aba Tibetan and Qiang Autonomous Prefecture, Guangyuan City, Liangshan Yi Autonomous Prefecture, Dazhou City, see Figure 2.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIn addition, the spatio-temporal scanning statistics revealed that the new report cases of TB in Sichuan Province displayed spatio-temporal clustering ( P\u0026lt; 0.001), and 5 high-risk clustering areas were scanned. Linshui County was the aggregation center,while the aggregation radius was 237.17 Km, moreover, the aggregation time was from 2006 to 2011, see Figure 3.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eUnivariate analysis\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eTable S1 showed that TB was positively correlated with the mortality of respiratory diseases, the average length of hospitalization (invasive TB), the number of newly registered smear-positive TB, and the number of people cured (P\u0026lt;0.05).\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eTB was positively correlated with double TB/HIV, existing HIV/AIDS, and HIV /AIDS new report, HIV/AIDS deaths, diabetes mortality, total health expenditure as a percentage of GDP (%), number of medical and health institutions per thousand people, the health technicians in the infectious disease hospital, the BCG vaccination rate (%) , and the other factors(P\u0026lt;0.05)(Table S1).\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eMeanwhile, Table S2 showed unemployment rate (%) and rural employees (10,000 people) were significantly positively correlated with the incidence of TB (P\u0026lt;0.05).\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eTB is positively correlated with SO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e emissions (tons), No\u003csub\u003ex\u003c/sub\u003e emissions (tons),total wastewater discharges (tons), chemical oxygen demand (tons), ammonia nitrogen emissions (tons), per capita park green area (square meters), forest area (10,000 hectares), forest resource coverage (%) and other factors (P\u0026lt;0.05), see Table S3.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eTable S4 showed that TB and child support ratio (%), population composition of 0-14 years old (%), total number of spouses (%), women with spouse (%), total number of widows (%), total number of widows (%), men who are widowed (%) was positively correlated (P\u0026lt;0.05).\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThere is a positive correlation between TB and total illiteracy rate (%), illiteracy rate (male) (%), illiteracy rate (female) (%), girls never attended school (%), total primary school (%), primary school boys (%), primary school girls (%) (P \u0026lt;0.05),see Table S5.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eMultivariate analysis\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eLinear regression\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eLinear regression displayed the incidence rate of forest fires (hectares), single-resistance rate (%), male junior high school education (%), second-hand smoke exposure rate of non-smokers (%), and cure rate (%) are possible risk factors for the incidence of TB, see Table 1. In addition, the regression model has the multi-collinearity, and the Durbin-Watson values are 0.211, 0.232, and 0.216, respectively.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe results of multi-factor analysis showed that the factors affecting the incidence of TB in the Sichuan population were different from the male/female population(P\u0026lt;0.05)(Table 1).\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eTrend of TB incidence\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe transfer function noise showed that the trends of incidence of TB in the whole population aged 0-14, 15-24, 25-64, and 65-year-old in 2035 will be -2.16/100,000, 95.00/100,000, and 6.5916/100,000, -33.00/100,000, respectively( Figures 4).\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIn 2035, the incidence of TB in the population aged 0-14, the population aged 15-24, and the population aged 25-64 could not be reduced to 0, and the incidence of TB in the population aged 65- could be reduced to zero in 2035.The incidence of TB in the whole population aged 15-24 and aged 25-64 has an increasing trend( Figure 4).\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"Discussion","content":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eMain Findings\u0026nbsp;\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThis study showed that the most comprehensive ecological correlation and time-series trend forecast analyses to investigate the associations of ecological factors with TB epidemic and the secular trend of TB incidence and placed tremendous pressure and extra burden,\u0026nbsp;aged 15-24 and aged 25-64,\u0026nbsp;on local public health resources in Sichuan.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAbout the urban residents\u0026rsquo; expenditures, males (%), high school education could reduce the incidence of TB in Sichuan, \u0026nbsp;respectively. \u0026nbsp;Moreover, the increase in the proportion of men with junior high school education may increase the risk of TB incidence. In 2017, the WHO found that the incidence of malnutrition mainly depends on clean fuels, per capita GDP, income inequality, and the proportion of urban population living in slums is related to the incidence of TB (TB)\u003csup\u003e\u0026nbsp;[1]\u003c/sup\u003e.The higher the economic level, the more urban employment opportunities, the higher the income, the better the nutritional conditions, the more medical resources, the better the availability and allocation of medical services, and the lower the incidence of TB.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe national epidemiological sample survey found that the prevalence of TB in the western region was significantly higher than that in the eastern region (with better economic benefits) \u003csup\u003e[11]\u003c/sup\u003e. In our study, the spatio-temporal scanning statistics showed 5 high-risk clustering areas Linshui County was the aggregation center, which located in the east of Sichuan Province, having lower GDP and per capita income from 2006 to 2011, 14% increase of Linshui County in GDP in 2012, the control measures of TB in this areas were be strengthened, so the TB aggregation center changed after 2012. Thus, this areas still should strengthen tuberculosis control and economic development, considering the weak economic and a high incidence of tuberculosis in the past.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eLonnroth K\u003csup\u003e[13]\u003c/sup\u003e suggested that the research focus of India, Brazil and other countries should also be included in the future transnational TB control, such as various direct and potential social impact factors of TB. While Liao CM \u003csup\u003e[14]\u0026nbsp;\u003c/sup\u003efound that the average incidence of TB in eastern Taiwan is relatively high. Ethnic minorities live in impoverished areas with the highest rate of TB recurrence (8.17%). Moreover, Li Ting et al. \u003csup\u003e[15]\u0026nbsp;\u003c/sup\u003efound that 56 cases of active pulmonary TB patients found that poor initial treatment promoted the increase of pulmonary TB. Thus, Janssens et al.\u003csup\u003e\u0026nbsp;[16]\u0026nbsp;\u003c/sup\u003eused the methods of WHO and the World Bank to analyze the relationship between per capita GDP and TB incidence in India, China, and the United Kingdom, and there was a negative correlation between the two.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe government\u0026apos;s TB prevention and treatment fund has provided certain support and strategic significance for the epidemic control of TB \u003csup\u003e[19-21]\u003c/sup\u003e.Why more payments to TB, the more cases? Considering that there may be a lag effect, while considering improved the ability of TB detection and diagnosis and reporting increased. In addition funds allocated to different regions unreasonable, there may be key nodes in the prevention, need further economical evaluation.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAge and sex also have a great influence on TB cases \u003csup\u003e[17-25]\u003c/sup\u003e. The higher the level of male junior high school education, the more cases of TB will be reported. The possible reason is that TB closely related to the body\u0026apos;s immunity, is affected by various bad habits. Personal health knowledge and good hygiene habits are \u0026nbsp;important to ensure the body\u0026rsquo;s immunity\u003csup\u003e\u0026nbsp;[19,26-28]\u003c/sup\u003e and to control diseases. The higher the education level, the lower the reported incidence of TB \u003csup\u003e[29-35]\u003c/sup\u003e. It found in this study, why a certain educational level could cut down the incidence of TB, not the highest education level that need further cohort study.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThus,Yang JD\u003csup\u003e[36]\u003c/sup\u003e pointed out that the higher the population density, the higher the incidence of TB. According to Tanrikulu AC, in Turkey, the incidence of TB in high-density cities (\u0026gt;80 people/km\u0026sup2;) is 4.18 times that of low-density cities. And Sun and Mangtani found that severe TB outbreaks occurred in areas with low economic levels and low population densities \u003csup\u003e[7,37]\u003c/sup\u003e.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe prevalence of TB among students is high, and the number of people in the living room is positively correlated with the epidemic of TB \u003csup\u003e[38,39,40]\u003c/sup\u003e, including crowds gathering in public places (schools, prisons and medical institutions) to live, study and work, and public transportation \u003csup\u003e[41,42].\u003c/sup\u003e, causing \u003cem\u003eMycobacterium\u003c/em\u003e tuberculosis infection, and we found that more green areas and humidity, fewer cases of TB, considering to increase more green areas which maybe changed the TB new cases. Forests can improve the micro-environment and air humidity, reduce dust, and possibly reduce the presence of TB droplet nuclei, thereby reducing the incidence of TB. Therefore, the humidification of the active area should be strengthened to prevent long-term activities in a dry and closed environment. While Valenca MS et al. \u003csup\u003e[41]\u003c/sup\u003e found that the epidemic of TB in prisons was serious, 69 times that of normal people. In addition, due to the small population density, the transmission of infectious diseases has been weakened to a certain extent \u003csup\u003e[20]\u003c/sup\u003e. Zhou WJ found that the SFRP1 gene may be a susceptibility gene for TB. It is suggested that the gene polymorphsim (CTNNB1) in Tibetan and Han populations have different genetic backgrounds \u003csup\u003e[43]\u003c/sup\u003e.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eFurthermore, Zou Bo suggested reducing contact with TB patients, strengthening prevention, improving the quality of life, changing bad living habits and lack of exercise, and playing an active role in preventing and controlling the occurrence of TB. Previous studies have found that proper physical exercise can enhance physical fitness \u003csup\u003e[1,6,21]\u003c/sup\u003e and reduce infections. Physical exercise can improve immunity and is a protective factor for the onset of TB. Different marital status may affect the incidence of TB. Divorced and unmarried women have a low incidence of TB. Marriage is not a protective factor for TB \u003csup\u003e[22-26,44]\u003c/sup\u003e. Male workers have a wider range of social activities, contacting infected people, and then marrying infected women.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe rate of smoking and drinking among men is higher than that of women, which makes men more likely to be infected with \u003cem\u003eMycobacterium\u003c/em\u003e tuberculosis or progress to active TB\u003csup\u003e[27]\u003c/sup\u003e. Exposure to secondhand smoke is an independent risk factor for the disease \u003csup\u003e[45]\u003c/sup\u003e. However, our study did not found secondhand smoke is an independent risk factor, even smoking .\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAdditionally, Li XX\u0026apos;s research found that in China, the number of hospital beds, number of doctors, and economic level per thousand people are negatively correlated with the epidemic of TB. Primary care institutions and infectious disease hospitals can help reduce the incidence of TB\u003csup\u003e[8]\u003c/sup\u003e.Since 2003, the incidence of TB among native Hawaiians/other Pacific islands, American-born Indians/Alaska natives has remained high. At the same time, among Latin Americans, non-Latin Americans, Asians, whites and blacks, if they do not receive treatment, TB screening and treatment are suitable for permanent residents who come to the United States \u003csup\u003e[6]\u003c/sup\u003e.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAs the number of TB cases decreases, the number of HIV/AIDS deaths will also decrease because there will be a large number of dual infections that affect the immune system. In 2016, WHO reported that 57% of TB patients had recorded HIV test results, up from 55% in 2015. The treatment success rate for AIDS-related TB is 78% (2015 cohort) and 30% (2014 cohort).At the same time, Bassili A et al. \u003csup\u003e[38]\u003c/sup\u003e believed that the unreasonable allocation of health resources leading to delays in the diagnosis and treatment of TB patients is also an important reason for the spread of TB in many developing countries.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eMoreover, infectious disease hospitals in Sichuan are limited and do not rely on the deployment of 21 cities (prefectures). Chengdu infectious disease hospitals, infectious disease prevention and control are difficult to increase significantly. At the same time as health technicians, the strategy to curb tuberculosis will be in 2030 \u003csup\u003e[46]\u003c/sup\u003e. The lack of the infectious disease hospitals and accessibility, caused the TB cases could not be screening from the normal population, then this disease spreads and delays actual treatment. It must also be aware about the impact that smoking and diabetes pandemics may be not having on the incidence of TB, which was not the same as other findings\u003csup\u003e[47]\u003c/sup\u003e. In addition, the existence of a fit TB Prevention and Control Measurement is essential to fight against TB\u003csup\u003e[47]\u003c/sup\u003e. According to the epidemiological situation, each country, each province and each city, each county should define their own real needs\u003csup\u003e[48,49]\u003c/sup\u003e, even though a difficulty. In other researchers\u0026rsquo;s study, high TB incidence areas were mainly concentrated in south-western Qinghai, while low TB incidence areas clustered in eastern and north-western Qinghai\u003csup\u003e[50]\u003c/sup\u003e. However, Wang\u0026nbsp;et al.\u003csup\u003e[51]\u003c/sup\u003e found Hotspots of TB incidence risk among the elderly were mostly located in north-eastern and southern areas in the study region in China\u003csup\u003e[50]\u003c/sup\u003e. Through scanning, more understanding of the meteorological effects on the seasonality of these viruses would be helpful in guiding public health interventions\u003csup\u003e[52]\u003c/sup\u003e.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eLocal TB control measurement would have to adapt to any new challenge that generated in order to respond to the needs of their own population, even if it may have a certain various and different from other areas or different gender groups.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eLimitations\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThis study is limited to reported TB cases in the Southwest of China; therefore, the factors we identified may not be fully and perfectly generalized to all settings. There were a certain limitations in primary data bias for just reported new cases and some cases maybe not be enrolled for some reasons. There is selection bias, there are cases of tuberculosis that have not been detected by various sources of detection, Sensitivity and specificity of detection methods, detection capability and level of detection, case quality of reporting and diagnostic ability, there are some missing cases in the data. Further cohort studies and RCT are needed.Because of the incidence affected by comprehensive factors, while some factors do not show a causal relationship, further prospective study is needed.\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"Conclusion","content":"\u003cp\u003eIn summary, this study systematically and quantitatively described the explanatory power of different social and environmental variables on TB incidence and forecast in southwest of China. We detected spatiotemporal distribution for all districts and the dominant factor varied by increaseing greening efforts, ethnic minority screening, tuberculosis treatment management, urban residents\u0026rsquo; income, the proportion of male high school education, precipitation, junior high school male education ratio, while reduceing HIV/AIDS mortality, which help to control the incidence of TB in socioeconomic level for public health interventions and government infection control practice,while till 2035, aged 15-24 and aged 25-64 need to focus on controling the rising trend in the southwest of China. \u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"Declarations","content":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eAcknowledgments\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eWe appreciated Prof. Jianwei Zhao and Prof. Chuang Chen for study design and written, and Prof. Shujuan Yang, Prof. Fangfang Zeng, Dr.Sui Zhu for revising the manuscript.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eFunding\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eNot applicable.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eDisclaimer\u0026nbsp;\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eNot applicable.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eCompeting interests\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe authors all declare that they have no competing interests.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003ePatient consent for publication\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eNot applicable.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eEthics approval\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe collection of case information required by the Law on the Prevention and Control of Infectious Diseases involves all cases and is Numbered by the Ethics Committee of Sichuan CDC(SCCDCIRB2023-015).\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eData availability statement\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eData are available in a public,open access, available on reasonable request.\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"References","content":"\u003cp\u003e1. 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PMID: 33713616.\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"Tables","content":"\u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:justify;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;'\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:16px;\"\u003eTable 1 \u0026nbsp; Multivariate analysis of tuberculosis by sex in Sichuan Province\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ctable style=\"border: none;border-collapse:collapse;\"\u003e\n \u003ctbody\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd rowspan=\"2\" style=\"width:169.3pt;border-top:solid black 1.0pt;border-left:none;border-bottom:solid black 1.0pt;border-right:none;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003eModel classification\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd rowspan=\"2\" style=\"width:231.75pt;border-top:solid black 1.0pt;border-left:none;border-bottom:solid black 1.0pt;border-right:none;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003esub option\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd rowspan=\"2\" style=\"width:65.2pt;border-top:solid black 1.0pt;border-left:none;border-bottom:solid black 1.0pt;border-right:none;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003eB\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd rowspan=\"2\" style=\"width:86.0pt;border-top:solid black 1.0pt;border-left:none;border-bottom:solid black 1.0pt;border-right:none;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003et\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd rowspan=\"2\" style=\"width:44.45pt;border-top:solid black 1.0pt;border-left:none;border-bottom:solid black 1.0pt;border-right:none;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003eP\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd colspan=\"2\" style=\"width:102.7pt;border:none;border-top:solid black 1.0pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height: 9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e95% confidence intervals\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:51.35pt;border:none;border-bottom:solid black 1.0pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003eLower limit\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:51.35pt;border:none;border-bottom:solid black 1.0pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003eUpper limit\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:169.3pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003eModel 1:\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:231.75pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height: 9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e(constant)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:65.2pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e93.4\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:86.0pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e15944622.537\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:44.45pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e\u0026lt;0.001\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:51.35pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e93.400\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:51.35pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e93.400\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:169.3pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.3in;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e(Dependent variable: incidence rate in the whole population)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:231.75pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height: .3in;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003ePark green area per capita (square meters)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:65.2pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.3in;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e-3.922\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:86.0pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.3in;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e-3972550.519\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:44.45pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.3in;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e\u0026lt;0.001\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:51.35pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.3in;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e-3.922\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:51.35pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.3in;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e-3.922\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:169.3pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003eDurbin-Watson: 0.211\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:231.75pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height: 9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003eHIV/AIDS deaths (cases)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:65.2pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e0.001\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:86.0pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e467275.626\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:44.45pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e\u0026lt;0.001\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:51.35pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e0.001\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:51.35pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e0.001\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:169.3pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:231.75pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height: 9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003eMale junior high school education (%)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:65.2pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e0.34\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:86.0pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e1675682.533\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:44.45pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e\u0026lt;0.001\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:51.35pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e0.340\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:51.35pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e0.340\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:169.3pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:231.75pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height: 9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003eProportion of ethnic Tibetans in cases (%)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:65.2pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e-1.058\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:86.0pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e-6865129.386\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:44.45pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e\u0026lt;0.001\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:51.35pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e-1.058\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:51.35pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e-1.058\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:169.3pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:231.75pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height: 9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003eTotal number of registered cases (cases)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:65.2pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e0.001\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:86.0pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e3358164.669\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:44.45pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e\u0026lt;0.001\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:51.35pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e0.001\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:51.35pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e0.001\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:169.3pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:231.75pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height: 9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003eProportion of ethnic Yi people in cases (%)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:65.2pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e-0.937\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:86.0pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e-1047194.388\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:44.45pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e\u0026lt;0.001\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:51.35pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e-0.937\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:51.35pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e-0.937\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:169.3pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:231.75pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height: 9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003eEnrollment number (secondary school and above)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:65.2pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e-3.25E-06\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:86.0pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e-1742290.959\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:44.45pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e\u0026lt;0.001\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:51.35pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e0.000\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:51.35pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e0.000\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:169.3pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:231.75pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height: 9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003eProportion of treatment management method full-process management (%)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:65.2pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e-0.218\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:86.0pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e-482599.821\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:44.45pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e\u0026lt;0.001\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:51.35pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e-0.218\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:51.35pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e-0.218\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:169.3pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:231.75pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height: 9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003eTotal expenditure of urban residents per capita (yuan)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:65.2pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e-2.74E-05\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:86.0pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e-121480.614\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:44.45pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e\u0026lt;0.001\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:51.35pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e0.000\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:51.35pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e0.000\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:169.3pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:231.75pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height: 9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003eMale with high school education (%)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:65.2pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e-0.003\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:86.0pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e-8404.267\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:44.45pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e\u0026lt;0.001\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:51.35pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e-0.003\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:51.35pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e-0.003\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:169.3pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:231.75pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height: 9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003eCumulative precipitation at 24 hours(20:00-20:00)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:65.2pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e-6.14E-06\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:86.0pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e-67.131\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:44.45pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e\u0026lt;0.001\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:51.35pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e0.000\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:51.35pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e0.000\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:169.3pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:4.9pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:231.75pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:4.9pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:65.2pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:4.9pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:86.0pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:4.9pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:44.45pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:4.9pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:51.35pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:4.9pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:51.35pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:4.9pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:169.3pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003eModel 2:\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:231.75pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e(constant)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:65.2pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e306.989\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:86.0pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e36485998.512\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:44.45pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e\u0026lt;0.001\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:51.35pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e306.989\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:51.35pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e306.989\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:169.3pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:14.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e(Dependent variable: male incidence)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:231.75pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:14.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003eRural subsistence allowance (ten thousand yuan)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:65.2pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:14.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e-3.40E-05\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:86.0pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:14.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e-1808357.628\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:44.45pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:14.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e\u0026lt;0.001\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:51.35pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:14.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e0.000\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:51.35pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:14.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e0.000\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:169.3pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003eDurbin-Watson: 0.232\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:231.75pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003eProportion of patients in custody (%)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:65.2pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e-5.082\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:86.0pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e-8990191.054\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:44.45pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e\u0026lt;0.001\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:51.35pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e-5.082\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:51.35pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e-5.082\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:169.3pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:231.75pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003eAverage relative humidity\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:65.2pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e-2.375\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:86.0pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e-6179930.721\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:44.45pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e\u0026lt;0.001\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:51.35pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e-2.375\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:51.35pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e-2.375\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:169.3pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:231.75pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003eOther proportions of case registration classification (%)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:65.2pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e7.947\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:86.0pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e4173174.519\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:44.45pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e\u0026lt;0.001\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:51.35pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e7.947\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:51.35pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e7.947\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:169.3pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:231.75pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003eNumber of beds in medical and health institutions per thousand population\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:65.2pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e-3.865\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:86.0pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e-1505179.715\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:44.45pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e\u0026lt;0.001\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:51.35pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e-3.865\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:51.35pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e-3.865\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:169.3pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:231.75pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003eOccupation is the proportion of workers (%)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:65.2pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e-1.62\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:86.0pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e-2420998.589\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:44.45pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e\u0026lt;0.001\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:51.35pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e-1.620\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:51.35pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e-1.620\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:169.3pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:231.75pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003eThe actual treatment management method, the whole-process management ratio (%)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:65.2pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e-0.274\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:86.0pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e-700779.321\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:44.45pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e\u0026lt;0.001\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:51.35pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e-0.274\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:51.35pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e-0.274\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:169.3pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:231.75pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003eHigh school education %)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:65.2pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e-0.169\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:86.0pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e-316600.362\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:44.45pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e\u0026lt;0.001\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:51.35pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e-0.169\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:51.35pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e-0.169\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:169.3pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:231.75pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003eProportion with spouse (%)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:65.2pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e-0.114\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:86.0pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e-662147.114\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:44.45pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e\u0026lt;0.001\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:51.35pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e-0.114\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:51.35pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e-0.114\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:169.3pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:231.75pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003eProportion of systemic management of tuberculosis (%)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:65.2pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e0\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:86.0pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e-8710.331\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:44.45pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e\u0026lt;0.001\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:51.35pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e0.000\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:51.35pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e0.000\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:169.3pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:231.75pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003eForest area (ten thousand hectares)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:65.2pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e-2.66E-06\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:86.0pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e-177.664\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:44.45pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e\u0026lt;0.001\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:51.35pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e0.000\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:51.35pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e0.000\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:169.3pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:5.45pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:231.75pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:5.45pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:65.2pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:5.45pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:86.0pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:5.45pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:44.45pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:5.45pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:51.35pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:5.45pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:51.35pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:5.45pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:169.3pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003eModel 3:\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:231.75pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e(constant)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:65.2pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e194.786\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:86.0pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e5473018.331\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:44.45pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e\u0026lt;0.001\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:51.35pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e194.785\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:51.35pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e194.786\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:169.3pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e(Dependent variable: female incidence rate)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:231.75pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003ePark green area per capita (square meters)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:65.2pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e-2.048\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:86.0pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e-2708897.164\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:44.45pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e\u0026lt;0.001\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:51.35pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e-2.048\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:51.35pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e-2.048\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:169.3pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003eDurbin-Watson: 0.216\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:231.75pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003ePrimary medical and health institutions\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:65.2pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e-0.002\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:86.0pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e-4437608.350\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:44.45pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e\u0026lt;0.001\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:51.35pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e-0.002\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:51.35pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e-0.002\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:169.3pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:231.75pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003eProportion of referral from patient source (%)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:65.2pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e-0.193\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:86.0pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e-1374050.513\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:44.45pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e\u0026lt;0.001\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:51.35pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e-0.193\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:51.35pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e-0.193\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:169.3pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:231.75pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003eDivorce ratio (%)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:65.2pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e-0.853\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:86.0pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e-1078359.283\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:44.45pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e\u0026lt;0.001\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:51.35pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e-0.853\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:51.35pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e-0.853\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:169.3pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:231.75pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003eTotal area of forest fire field (hectare)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:65.2pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e0.000\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:86.0pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e-706285.744\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:44.45pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e\u0026lt;0.001\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:51.35pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e0.000\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:51.35pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e0.000\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:169.3pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:231.75pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003eProportion of widows (%)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:65.2pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e-0.406\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:86.0pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e-588956.124\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:44.45pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e\u0026lt;0.001\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:51.35pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e-0.406\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:51.35pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e-0.406\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:169.3pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:231.75pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 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style=\"width:44.45pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e\u0026lt;0.001\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:51.35pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e0.237\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:51.35pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e0.237\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:169.3pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:231.75pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003eJunior high school education male (%)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:65.2pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e0.019\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n 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among non-smokers (%)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:65.2pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e0.005\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:86.0pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e30919.146\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:44.45pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e\u0026lt;0.001\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:51.35pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e0.005\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:51.35pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e0.005\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:169.3pt;border:none;border-bottom:solid black 1.0pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:231.75pt;border:none;border-bottom:solid black 1.0pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003eProportion of stopping cause cured (%)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:65.2pt;border:none;border-bottom:solid black 1.0pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e0.001\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:86.0pt;border:none;border-bottom:solid black 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style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e0.001\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width:51.35pt;border:none;border-bottom:solid black 1.0pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:9.35pt;\"\u003e\n \u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:left;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;line-height:8.0pt;vertical-align:middle;'\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size:11px;\"\u003e0.001\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003c/tbody\u003e\n\u003c/table\u003e\n\u003cp style='margin:0in;text-align:justify;font-size:14px;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;'\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e"}],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":true,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":false,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":false,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"TB infection, population, socioeconomic, environment, risk","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-1736046/v2","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-1736046/v2","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eObjective\u003c/strong\u003e: \u0026nbsp;The objective of this study was to assess the incidence of tuberculosis (TB) and ind the risk factors of TB patients with a high burden of TB in socioeconomic level, the high level of TB incidence and the great changes of economic and social factors, explore the possible factors, construct scientiic and robust prediction model, and analyse whether the task of stopping TB can be accomplished by the ex- pected global deadline.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eStudy design: \u0026nbsp;This was an ecological study.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eMethods:\u003c/strong\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;Descriptive analysis, spatial and space-time scan, correlation analysis, and regression analysis were carried out, based on cases of TB in Sichuan Province and ecological data from 2006 to 2017, to explore the characters of TB and ecological factors, using the transfer functionenoise model to forecast the trend of TB until 2035.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eResults:\u003c/strong\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;Factors affecting the incidence of TB, increasing per capita green area, reporting status of TB among Tibetans and Yi minorities, comprehensive treatment management, total cost of TB per capita for urban residents, proportion of males with high school education, 20 to 20 h of 24-h accumulated precipitation, reducing HIV at the same time as AIDS deaths, the increase in the proportion of males in junior highschool education, and the increase in the number of registered TB cases can reduce the incidence of TB.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eConclusions:\u003c/strong\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;There \u0026nbsp;was \u0026nbsp;concentration \u0026nbsp;mainly \u0026nbsp;on \u0026nbsp;enhanced \u0026nbsp;control \u0026nbsp;of \u0026nbsp;the \u0026nbsp;environment \u0026nbsp;and \u0026nbsp;society measures, helpful in guiding government planning to control TB. Reinforcement is required to reduce the TB of population aged 15e24 and aged 25e64 in socioeconomic level by 2035.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"The Environmental and Socioeconomic Effects of Tuberculosis Patients in the Southwest of China: a population-based study","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":2,"date":"2024-01-17 18:42:44","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-1736046/v2","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}},{"code":1,"date":"2022-07-06 17:55:06","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-1736046/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"127aa70b-1a06-4e7c-8822-223ccb5c502a","owner":[],"postedDate":"January 17th, 2024","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2022-07-08T15:32:41+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2024-01-17 18:42:44","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v2","identity":"rs-1736046","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-1736046","identity":"rs-1736046","version":["v2"]},"buildId":"qtupq5eGEP_6zYnWcrvyt","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}