Future burden of humid-heat related mortality in Europe aggravated by compound day-night warming and aging

Future burden of humid-heat related mortality in Europe aggravated by compound day-night warming and aging | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Future burden of humid-heat related mortality in Europe aggravated by compound day-night warming and aging Yong Ge, Xilin Wu, Jun Wang, Zhoupeng Ren, Die Zhang, Shengjie Lai, and 1 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-3957517/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Summer heatwaves are shifting from typical dry-heat to more humid conditions, with more frequent day-night compound heat extremes. As the fastest warming and aging continent, understanding the roles of climate and population dynamics is crucial for Europe to avoid underestimation of future heat-related health risks. Here we use a distributed lag nonlinear model that accounts for humid heat and day-night compound hot extremes to quantify future heat-related excess mortality in Europe due to changes in climate, population size, and age structure. We find humid heat can reduce the root mean square error of the model by 26 deaths compared to dry-bulb tempreature alone. Day-night compound hot extremes posing a 1.5 times higher risk of death than daytime only heat when lasting over 3 days. We project that total annual heat-induced mortality in Europe will increase by 24,670–69,827 deaths per degree of global warming under different Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), with western and northern Europe suffering the most. The increase in the future burden of heat-related mortality burden in Europe is dominanted by increased warming levels (accounting for 51.2–89.1% of the increase heat-related deaths) and an aging population structure (explaining 37.9–72.2% of the increase in the attributable heat-related mortality), although population decline under certain SSPs, such as SSP3 (a pathway of increased nationalism, regional rivalry, and decreased globalization), offsets over 34,000 heat-related deaths. Our analysis thus highlights the essential roles of mitigating and adapting to climate changes and increasing the resilience of older adults in reducing heat-related health risks in Europe. Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Climate-change impacts/Environmental health Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Projection and prediction Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Climate-change impacts/Environmental health Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Socioeconomic scenarios Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files Supplementaryinformation.pdf Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-3957517","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":282792195,"identity":"8c79d432-917f-4a0f-8dbe-07b04eced2e9","order_by":0,"name":"Yong 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