Digital infrastructure development, carbon total factor productivity, and carbon dioxide rebound effects

Abstract Digital infrastructure construction (DIC) and low carbon transformation are important engines and objective functions of the superior economic development, and the synergistic drive between the two is essential to achieving lasting economic development. This study systematically investigates the effect of DIC on carbon total factor productivity (CTEP) using an econometric analysis. It comprehensively explores and effectively evaluates the influence of DIC on the rebound effect of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions (CRE) using the panel data from 282 Chinese cities at the prefectural level between 2007 and 2019. Research findings that, first, the expansion of digital infrastructure has a nonlinear effect on CTEP, with a U-shaped link between the two; Multiple robustness tests confirm that this is still true. Second, DIC and optimisation of the energy consumption structure in a "U" curve relationship, and the major strategy for increasing CTEP is to reduce energy consumption, while industrial structure optimization and technical innovation have less of a mediating influence. Third, further analysis reveals that there is a "U" shaped non-linear connection between the DIC and CRE, and energy savings and emission reductions in the later stages of DIC fall short of expectations. The findings of the study suggest that DIC is extensible in China, and that the study can promote digital infrastructure to enable low-carbon transformation, improve CTEP, and enhance low-carbon transformation's role in fostering high-caliber, environmentally friendly growth.