Modeling Mountain Pine Beetle Abundance and Distribution in a Changing Climate

Abstract The range of mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins) is primarily constrained by climate, with winter temperatures playing a crucial role. Climate change is likely to increase the number of warm days and decrease cold days compared to historical norms, making higher latitudes more suitable habitats. In this work, we explore the potential impacts of environmental covariates on outbreaks of mountain pine beetle under climate change in a selected lodgepole pine area in Alberta. We employ a hierarchical model to examine mountain pine beetle dynamics approaching the end of the century. Our analysis assesses the impact of various climatic covariates and estimates the probability and expected number of infestations across different climate change scenarios. Our results from the hierarchical model underscore the critical role of degree days and overwinter survival probability, displaying an overall trend towards a higher probability and a greater number of outbreaks with increasing temperature. Our results indicate that Alberta is likely to experience widespread infestations in the future. Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest.