Impact of Climate Change on the Productivity of Cropping Systems Using APSIM Agro-meteorological Model: A case of Wheat crop over the south central Ethiopia of Lemo District.

Abstract In this article on climate change impact, we present model simulation results of wheat crop yield in the Lemo district Hadiya zone of Ethiopia through 2021-2100. The analysis draws on a single and most precise climate of daily rainfall, minimum and maximum temperatures downwelling short wave radiation, and calculated PET (Potential Evapotranspiration) from the latest RCM in a CORDEX project. It was publicized in 2017 as a Can ESM2-AFR-0.220 horizontal for Tropical-Africa grid which is approximately 25 km by 25 km resolution. Then the agro meteorological crop model called APSIM was applied to estimate the effects on the yields of the wheat crop for the expected higher temperatures and, increased rainfall in the Lemo district of south-central Ethiopia. The simulation result suggests that climate change will likely have only relatively small effects on the annual average wheat yields in Lemo district up to 2080. Nevertheless, yields will indispensably decline over time by -36.5% - -63.5% at the end of the near term (2021 - 2050) and midterm (2051 - 2080) periods on RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate change scenarios respectively. It will enable to increase of 11.5% – 25.6% at the end of the term (2081 - 2100) period on both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Still, even if future climate changes have only moderate impacts on average wheat yield in Lemo district, there is a rising signal that weather outcomes are likely to become more variable in the future, indicating that droughts and floods may have a greater impact on wheat cropping in the future than in the past.