Do we predict upcoming speech content in naturalistic environments?

The ability to predict upcoming actions is a characteristic hallmark of cognition and therefore not surprisingly a central topic in cognitive science. It remains unclear, however, whether the predictive behaviour commonly observed in strictly controlled lab environments generalizes to rich, everyday settings. In four virtual reality experiments, we tested whether a well-established marker of linguistic prediction (i.e. anticipatory eye movements as observed in the visual world paradigm) replicated when increasing the naturalness of the paradigm by means of i) immersing participants in naturalistic everyday scenes, ii) increasing the number of distractor objects present, iii) manipulating the location of referents in central versus peripheral vision, and iv) modifying the proportion of predictable noun-referents in the experiment. Robust anticipatory eye movements were observed, even in the presence of 10 objects (hereby testing working memory) and when only 25% of all sentences contained a visually present referent (hereby testing error-based learning). The anticipatory effect disappeared, however, when referents were placed in peripheral vision. Together, our findings suggest that working memory may play an important role in predictive processing in everyday communication, but only in contexts where upcoming referents have been explicitly attended to prior to encountering the spoken referential act. Methodologically, our study confirms that ecological validity and experimental control may go hand in hand in future studies of human predictive behaviour.