Oil prices and exchange rates dynamic: does de-dollarization matter?

Oil prices and exchange rates dynamic: does de-dollarization matter? | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Oil prices and exchange rates dynamic: does de-dollarization matter? Joseph ATEBA, EWONDO Dieudonne, ABEGA Daniel Armando This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6384136/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The use of the US dollars as invoicing currency in international transactions for decades has provided the United States of America with tremendous advantages: an increase in the USD demand alongside with its valuation, as well as the demand in the US treasury which provides the country with unlimited privileges in borrowing. However the recent geopolitical, economic and historical events have prompted many endeavors to diversify away from the US dollars, by the way, challenging the United States hegemony. Against this background, the current research intended to assess the extent to which the de-dollarization is shifting the traditional relationship between the exchange rates returns and the crude oil prices in China and Russia, countries that have taken bold steps regarding the de-dollarization. The researchers applied both the time varying granger causality (TVGC) and the parametric in quantile causality on a two period sample, prior and after 2014 .The study results revealed that, there is strong evidences of causality from crude oil price to the Chinese and Russian exchange rates returns prior to 2014. However, after 2014, not only the causality from international oil prices to exchange rates weakens, but also Chinese and Russian exchange rates returns proved to affect international oil prices, mostly at extreme values of the quantiles. These findings are insightful, unlike the theoretical literature and abundant empirical evidences supporting the impact of USD on crude oil prices, this article revealed that, other currencies, namely the Chinese RMB and the Russian rubble can nowadays influence the international crude oil prices. While the de-dollarization of crude oil markets can be an effective risks diversification strategy for these countries, we nevertheless recommend them to develop sound measures in order to mitigate their currencies volatility. As well, the United States of America should re-evaluate its foreign policy and macroeconomic environment. International Economics de-dollarization crude oil prices exchange rates returns time varying granger causality (TVGC) Full Text Additional Declarations The authors declare no competing interests. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6384136","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":438923671,"identity":"3259cc62-6149-4ef1-9171-0f4cbb18db1f","order_by":0,"name":"Joseph ATEBA","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA5ElEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBACxgYGBmYGhv928uxAFoOBBTFamEFamJMNew6AtEgQYw9EC2PDjQQQjwgtzO3nDz4uqGFjZpz5/OqGHwUSDPzt3Qn4HdaTzGw84xgPH7t0TtnNHqDDJM6c3UDAL8ls0jxsEsyMs3PSbvAAtRhI5BLQ0v+Y/TfPPwPGhptn0m7+IUrLjGQ2Zt62BKD32Y/dJs6WGY+NpWf2HQAGcg7bbRkDCR6CfjHsT3z4ueDbAWBUHn92880fGzn+9l4CWhrgTB4DMIlXOQjII5jsDwiqHgWjYBSMgpEJALDnRa1YcpJdAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0002-9249-2622","institution":"Zhejiang Gongshang University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Joseph","middleName":"","lastName":"ATEBA","suffix":""},{"id":438923672,"identity":"a93ffe92-2735-475e-9275-6d46d490330c","order_by":1,"name":"EWONDO Dieudonne","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0008-9865-5596","institution":"Maroua University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"EWONDO","middleName":"","lastName":"Dieudonne","suffix":""},{"id":438923673,"identity":"1ce31ff1-bbe1-4c0c-8459-92de4f6470e3","order_by":2,"name":"ABEGA Daniel Armando","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0005-5646-9443","institution":"University of Yaoundé 2","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"ABEGA","middleName":"Daniel","lastName":"Armando","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-04-05 23:55:45","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":{"humanSubjects":false,"vertebrateSubjects":false,"conflictsOfInterestStatement":false,"humanSubjectEthicalGuidelines":false,"humanSubjectConsent":false,"humanSubjectClinicalTrial":false,"humanSubjectCaseReport":false,"vertebrateSubjectEthicalGuidelines":false},"doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6384136/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6384136/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":80202832,"identity":"43296b3e-bbc6-454a-a624-22373db40242","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-04-09 07:07:32","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1005526,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"ARTICLE55445.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6384136/v1_covered_c49e10d4-67f4-47e5-a017-84dcca89a69b.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"The authors declare no competing interests.","formattedTitle":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eOil prices and exchange rates dynamic: does de-dollarization matter?\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"de-dollarization, crude oil prices, exchange rates returns, time varying granger causality (TVGC)","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6384136/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6384136/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eThe use of the US dollars as invoicing currency in international transactions for decades has provided the United States of America with tremendous advantages: an increase in the USD demand alongside with its valuation, as well as the demand in the US treasury which provides the country with unlimited privileges in borrowing. 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