From Price Stability to Food Security: What Are the Drivers of Price Volatilities in Philippine Vegetable Markets?

From Price Stability to Food Security: What Are the Drivers of Price Volatilities in Philippine Vegetable Markets? | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article From Price Stability to Food Security: What Are the Drivers of Price Volatilities in Philippine Vegetable Markets? Jennifer Hinlo, Yoonsuk Lee This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6876748/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 21 Jan, 2026 Read the published version in Agriculture & Food Security → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Background Vegetable price volatility poses a serious challenge to food security and agricultural sustainability, particularly in developing countries such as the Philippines. Fluctuations in prices disrupt market efficiency, reduce producer and consumer welfare, and hinder long-term planning in the agricultural sector. This study investigates the drivers of price variability in two key seasoning vegetables—onion and garlic—which are highly traded and politically sensitive commodities in the Philippines. Methods Using quarterly data from 2010 to 2024, this study decomposes farm, wholesale, and retail price variances into demand, supply, and import components. A variance decomposition framework was employed, complemented by Monte Carlo simulations to test the robustness of elasticity estimates under data-scarce and uncertain conditions. Results The findings reveal that demand variability is the dominant factor influencing price fluctuations, followed by supply, with imports contributing minimally. Seasonal production patterns amplify these fluctuations, while the impact of import activity is understated due to unrecorded volumes from smuggling and illegal trade. Simulation results validate the robustness of decomposition estimates for onion but show wider variability in garlic prices, reflecting structural challenges in garlic production and market dependency on imports. Conclusion The study underscores that domestic market dynamics—particularly demand and seasonal supply shifts—play a more significant role in vegetable price instability than trade flows. Policy interventions should prioritize market modernization, investment in infrastructure, farmer capacity-building, and the strict enforcement of anti-smuggling laws. Strengthening existing agricultural legislation and aligning programs with the Philippine Vegetable Industry Roadmap are critical steps toward improving price stability and food security. Agricultural market instability Monte Carlo simulation Onion and garlic Supply and demand decomposition Vegetable price volatility Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Supplementary Files Additionalfile1.docx Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 21 Jan, 2026 Read the published version in Agriculture & Food Security → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6876748","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":477036772,"identity":"19e474d9-b41a-4fcd-bffa-b5f98949ca51","order_by":0,"name":"Jennifer Hinlo","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Southeastern Philippines","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Jennifer","middleName":"","lastName":"Hinlo","suffix":""},{"id":477036775,"identity":"49b25d72-4e0b-43ef-b79c-03af595295a3","order_by":1,"name":"Yoonsuk Lee","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA/0lEQVRIiWNgGAWjYPCCBBkGBubDKCIEtfAwMLAlk6yFx5g4LQbHm489/NmWxsPP3vPZ4OeO2sR+6QbGDz8Y0vJxajlzLN2Yty2HR7Ln7ObE3jPHE2fOOcAs2cOQY9mAS8uNHDNpxrYKHoMbuZsP8LYdy91wI4FBmoGhwgCnLUAtkj+BWuzvv3l88C9EC/NvQlokQA4zkOBhTuZtqwFpYQPakoNTi+SZY2nSPOfSeCTOpBkby7YdqJ85I7HNsscgDacWPmCISf4oS5bjbz/8WPJtW50xv0Ty4Rs/KpJxalE4gMoHpQDGBqCDcWlgYJBvQOXX4VY6CkbBKBgFIxYAANQwV8+7J3ORAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"","institution":"Kangwon National University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Yoonsuk","middleName":"","lastName":"Lee","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-06-12 05:38:28","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6876748/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6876748/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[{"content":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s40066-025-00602-8","type":"published","date":"2026-01-21T15:57:51+00:00"}],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":101151813,"identity":"98b089f5-e378-4462-8239-2bbb0b8e8877","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-01-26 16:05:58","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":282164,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Mainmanuscript.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6876748/v1_covered_a663f2c9-2205-4f16-945f-16d394901520.pdf"},{"id":85555564,"identity":"88fe1bc3-1ea8-48dd-8bf5-cbc3e46425d8","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-06-27 11:07:55","extension":"docx","order_by":0,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":48420,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Additionalfile1.docx","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6876748/v1/232c1d25ed28bbba5ff950ab.docx"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"\u003cp\u003eFrom Price Stability to Food Security: What Are the Drivers of Price Volatilities in Philippine Vegetable Markets?\u003c/p\u003e","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Agricultural market instability, Monte Carlo simulation, Onion and garlic, Supply and demand decomposition, Vegetable price volatility","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6876748/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6876748/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eBackground \u003c/strong\u003eVegetable price volatility poses a serious challenge to food security and agricultural sustainability, particularly in developing countries such as the Philippines. Fluctuations in prices disrupt market efficiency, reduce producer and consumer welfare, and hinder long-term planning in the agricultural sector. This study investigates the drivers of price variability in two key seasoning vegetables—onion and garlic—which are highly traded and politically sensitive commodities in the Philippines.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eMethods\u003c/strong\u003e Using quarterly data from 2010 to 2024, this study decomposes farm, wholesale, and retail price variances into demand, supply, and import components. A variance decomposition framework was employed, complemented by Monte Carlo simulations to test the robustness of elasticity estimates under data-scarce and uncertain conditions.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eResults\u003c/strong\u003e The findings reveal that demand variability is the dominant factor influencing price fluctuations, followed by supply, with imports contributing minimally. Seasonal production patterns amplify these fluctuations, while the impact of import activity is understated due to unrecorded volumes from smuggling and illegal trade. Simulation results validate the robustness of decomposition estimates for onion but show wider variability in garlic prices, reflecting structural challenges in garlic production and market dependency on imports.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eConclusion\u003c/strong\u003e The study underscores that domestic market dynamics—particularly demand and seasonal supply shifts—play a more significant role in vegetable price instability than trade flows. Policy interventions should prioritize market modernization, investment in infrastructure, farmer capacity-building, and the strict enforcement of anti-smuggling laws. Strengthening existing agricultural legislation and aligning programs with the Philippine Vegetable Industry Roadmap are critical steps toward improving price stability and food security.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"From Price Stability to Food Security: What Are the Drivers of Price Volatilities in Philippine Vegetable Markets?","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-06-27 10:59:51","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6876748/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"7df2b975-52c3-40e1-9bd0-68d14112f145","owner":[],"postedDate":"June 27th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-01-26T16:02:17+00:00","versionOfRecord":{"articleIdentity":"rs-6876748","link":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s40066-025-00602-8","journal":{"identity":"agriculture-and-food-security","isVorOnly":false,"title":"Agriculture \u0026 Food Security"},"publishedOn":"2026-01-21 15:57:51","publishedOnDateReadable":"January 21st, 2026"},"versionCreatedAt":"2025-06-27 10:59:51","video":"","vorDoi":"10.1186/s40066-025-00602-8","vorDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s40066-025-00602-8","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-6876748","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-6876748","identity":"rs-6876748","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}