Investigating How Policies and Other Conditions Contribute Influencing Agricultural GHG Emissions in the EU

The present study aims at investigating the potential impact of agricultural policies on GHG emissions from agriculture across the European Union. The study begins with a brief analysis of the context of implementation of the 2014-2022 Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), within which many interventions were designed to improve sustainability and increase competitiveness. It follows a description of the structural changes the European agriculture is witnessing, that are both influenced and contribute influencing policies. The method of Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) is used to investigate possible causalities and to cluster observations based on similar combinations of conditions (i.e., drivers) and outcomes (i.e., positive or negative variations in GHG emissions from agriculture between the end and the begin of the CAP programming period). The results reveal that the increase in GHG emissions from agriculture over the study period is mainly attributable to the low share of agricultural land under management contracts targeting climate change mitigation and carbon sequestration through the CAP. CAP payments coupled with the production is found to contribute to further increasing GHG emission from agriculture in some eastern and northern EU countries. Livestock concentration, income support payments and the high price of agricultural land drive the increase in GHG emissions for other central and eastern EU countries. The paper concludes addressing existing shortcomings due to conflicting interventions in the current CAP Strategic Plans.