Estimations of SARS-CoV-2 endemic characteristics

ABSTRACT The fourth year of the COVID-19 pandemic without decreasing trends in the global numbers of new daily cases, high numbers of circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants and re-infections together with pessimistic predictions for the Omicron wave duration force studies about the endemic stage of the disease. The global trends were illustrated with the use the accumulated numbers of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths, the percentages of fully vaccinated people and boosters and the results of calculation of the effective reproduction number provided by Johns Hopkins University. The modified SIR model showed the presence of unsteady equilibrium. The global numbers of new daily cases will range between 300 thousand and one million, daily deaths – between one and 3.3 thousand.