Required displacement factors for evaluating and comparing climate impacts of intensive and extensive forestry in Germany

Required displacement factors for evaluating and comparing climate impacts of intensive and extensive forestry in Germany | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Methodology Required displacement factors for evaluating and comparing climate impacts of intensive and extensive forestry in Germany Christian Buschbeck, Stefan Pauliuk This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-1317454/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 11 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Background Forestry plays a major role in climate change mitigation. However, which intensity of logging is best suited for that task, remains controversial. We contribute to the debate by quantitatively analyzing two different forest management scenarios in Germany, an intensive and an extensive one. We assess whether increased carbon storage in wood products and substitution of other emission-intensive materials can offset reduced carbon stocks in the forest due to increased harvesting. For that, we calculate annual Required Displacement Factors (RDF) - a dimensionless quantity that indicates the minimal Displacement Factor (DF) so that intensive forestry outperforms extensive forestry from a climate perspective. Result Annual RDFs show values of about 1 in the first two decades and after 2030 a steady decline to about 0. The comparison between current average DF and calculated RDFs indicates that for now, a compensation of lower carbon stocks in forests by material and energy substitution as well as product carbon storage is possible. In the future however, DFs will decline due to a decarbonization of the economy, hence the net climate mitigation potential of substitution diminishes. In terms of total global warming potential, the performance of the two scenarios is likewise dependent on how quickly the rest of the economy decarbonizes: With a conservative estimate on future emission reduction, leading to relatively high DFs, intensive forestry is beneficial, reducing total global warming potential (GWP) over the analysed time period of 40 years by 100 - 300 Mt CO2-equ. compared to extensive forestry. With an optimistic estimate for low future DFs extensive forestry is beneficial, reducing GWP over the same time period by 0 - 200 Mt CO2-equ. compared to intensive forestry. Conclusion Our findings highlight the necessity of a broad systems perspective for assessing the climate impacts of wood use. Robust statements about the climate performance of different forestry scenarios can only be made by including different possible industry decarbonisation pathways into the assessment. Still, we can robustly conclude that the later a change in forest management is initiated, the more beneficial the extensive scenario will be, because carbon displacement diminishes as decarbonization proceeds. Forest Management Wood utilization Carbon Storage Carbon Balance Displacement Factor Substitution Decarbonizati Full Text Supplementary Files SupplementaryMaterial.pdf Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Major Revision 20 May, 2022 Reviewer # 4 agreed at journal 24 Apr, 2022 Reviewer # 3 agreed at journal 24 Apr, 2022 Reviewer # 2 agreed at journal 21 Apr, 2022 Reviews received at journal 14 Feb, 2022 Reviewers invited by journal 14 Feb, 2022 Reviewer # 1 agreed at journal 13 Feb, 2022 Editor assigned by journal 12 Feb, 2022 Editor invited by journal 11 Feb, 2022 Submission checks completed at journal 07 Feb, 2022 First submitted to journal 01 Feb, 2022 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-1317454","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Methodology","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":82175123,"identity":"c99b352c-cb75-413a-99c0-8f4a3e7c87fc","order_by":0,"name":"Christian Buschbeck","email":"data:image/png;base64,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","orcid":"","institution":"University of Freiburg","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Christian","middleName":"","lastName":"Buschbeck","suffix":""},{"id":82495842,"identity":"078f624b-a6dd-4124-a5c8-e049cdefb1ad","order_by":1,"name":"Stefan Pauliuk","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Freiburg","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Stefan","middleName":"","lastName":"Pauliuk","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2022-02-01 11:19:30","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-1317454/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-1317454/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":18069596,"identity":"ba308f8d-59e7-4f5f-ae0b-5131060776f4","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2022-02-09 16:34:53","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":472632,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Manuscript.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-1317454/v1_covered.pdf"},{"id":18069595,"identity":"877cdb27-6fe5-4e97-980c-4132cd491dea","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2022-02-09 16:34:48","extension":"pdf","order_by":4,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":201769,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"SupplementaryMaterial.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-1317454/v1/43260101952efa9cd0fc248e.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"","formattedTitle":"Required displacement factors for evaluating and comparing climate impacts of intensive and extensive forestry in Germany","fulltext":[{"header":"Full Text","content":"This preprint is available for \u003ca href='/article/rs-1317454/latest.pdf' target='_blank'\u003edownload as a PDF\u003c/a\u003e."}],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":false,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"carbon-balance-and-management","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"cbam","sideBox":"Learn more about [Carbon Balance and Management](https://cbmjournal.biomedcentral.com/)","snPcode":"13021","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/13021/3","title":"Carbon Balance and Management","twitterHandle":"@BioMedCentral","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"BMC/SO AJ","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Forest Management, Wood utilization, Carbon Storage, Carbon Balance, Displacement Factor, Substitution, Decarbonizati","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-1317454/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-1317454/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eBackground\u003c/strong\u003e \u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eForestry plays a major role in climate change mitigation. However, which intensity of logging is best suited for that task, remains controversial. We contribute to the debate by quantitatively analyzing two different forest management scenarios in Germany, an intensive and an extensive one. We assess whether increased carbon storage in wood products and substitution of other emission-intensive materials can offset reduced carbon stocks in the forest due to increased harvesting. For that, we calculate annual Required Displacement Factors (RDF) - a dimensionless quantity that indicates the minimal Displacement Factor (DF) so that intensive forestry outperforms extensive forestry from a climate perspective.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eResult\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eAnnual RDFs show values of about 1 in the first two decades and after 2030 a steady decline to about 0. The comparison between current average DF and calculated RDFs indicates that for now, a compensation of lower carbon stocks in forests by material and energy substitution as well as product carbon storage is possible. In the future however, DFs will decline due to a decarbonization of the economy, hence the net climate mitigation potential of substitution diminishes. In terms of total global warming potential, the performance of the two scenarios is likewise dependent on how quickly the rest of the economy decarbonizes: With a conservative estimate on future emission reduction, leading to relatively high DFs, intensive forestry is beneficial, reducing total global warming potential (GWP) over the analysed time period of 40 years by 100 - 300 Mt CO2-equ. compared to extensive forestry. With an optimistic estimate for low future DFs extensive forestry is beneficial, reducing GWP over the same time period by 0 - 200 Mt CO2-equ. compared to intensive forestry.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eConclusion\u003c/strong\u003e \u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eOur findings highlight the necessity of a broad systems perspective for assessing the climate impacts of wood use. Robust statements about the climate performance of different forestry scenarios can only be made by including different possible industry decarbonisation pathways into the assessment. Still, we can robustly conclude that the later a change in forest management is initiated, the more beneficial the extensive scenario will be, because carbon displacement diminishes as decarbonization proceeds.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Required displacement factors for evaluating and comparing climate impacts of intensive and extensive forestry in Germany","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2022-02-09 16:34:47","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-1317454/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0},{"type":"decision","content":"Major Revision","date":"2022-05-20T14:17:13+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"","date":"2022-04-25T01:00:00+00:00","index":4,"fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"","date":"2022-04-25T00:00:00+00:00","index":3,"fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"","date":"2022-04-22T00:00:00+00:00","index":2,"fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2022-02-14T16:37:25+00:00","index":0,"fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewersInvited","content":"","date":"2022-02-14T16:36:07+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"","date":"2022-02-14T00:00:00+00:00","index":1,"fulltext":""},{"type":"editorAssigned","content":"","date":"2022-02-12T18:04:57+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvited","content":"","date":"2022-02-11T23:00:00+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"checksComplete","content":"","date":"2022-02-07T22:55:46+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"submitted","content":"Carbon Balance and Management","date":"2022-02-01T06:18:46+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"carbon-balance-and-management","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"cbam","sideBox":"Learn more about [Carbon Balance and Management](https://cbmjournal.biomedcentral.com/)","snPcode":"13021","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/13021/3","title":"Carbon Balance and Management","twitterHandle":"@BioMedCentral","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"BMC/SO AJ","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"7177ca6a-710b-4fbd-b0f8-caee26faa477","owner":[],"postedDate":"February 9th, 2022","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"under-review","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2022-09-22T10:01:01+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2022-02-09 16:34:47","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-1317454","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-1317454","identity":"rs-1317454","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"_2-kVJe1T_tPrBINL-cwx","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}