How key features of early development shape deep convective systems

How key features of early development shape deep convective systems | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article How key features of early development shape deep convective systems Sophie Abramian, Caroline Muller, Camille Risi, Thomas Fiolleau, and 1 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6614881/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 9 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Deep Convective Systems (DCSs) reaching scales of 100-1000 km play a pivotal role as the primary precipitation source in the tropics. Those systems can have large cloud shields, and thus not only affect severe precipitation patterns but also play a crucial part in modulating the tropical radiation budget. Understanding the complex factors that control how these systems grow and how they will behave in a warming climate remain fundamental challenges. Research efforts have been directed, on one hand, towards understanding the environmental control on these systems, and on the other hand, towards exploring the internal potential of systems to develop and self-aggregate in idealized simulations. However, we still lack understanding on the relative role of the environment and internal feedbacks on DCS mature size and why. The novel high-resolution global SAM simulation from the DYAMOND project, combined with the TOOCAN Lagrangian tracking of DCSs and machine learning tools, offers an unprecedented opportunity to explore this question. We find that a system’s growth rate during the first 2 hours of development predicts its final size with a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.65. Beyond this period, growth rate emerges as the strongest predictor. However, in the early stages, additional factors—such as ice water path heterogeneity, migration distance, interactions with neighboring systems, and deep shear—play a more significant role. Our study quantitatively assesses the relative influence of internal versus external factors on the mature cloud shield size. Our results show that system-intrinsic properties exert a stronger influence than environmental conditions, suggesting that the initial environment does not strictly constrain final system size, particularly for larger systems where internal dynamics dominate. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Atmospheric science/Atmospheric dynamics Physical sciences/Mathematics and computing/Statistics Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Supplementary Files AbramianSophieSINPJ.pdf Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 25 May, 2025 Reviews received at journal 24 May, 2025 Reviews received at journal 23 May, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 13 May, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 08 May, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 08 May, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 08 May, 2025 Submission checks completed at journal 08 May, 2025 First submitted to journal 07 May, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6614881","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":455466418,"identity":"fe3bc8cf-090f-414a-867b-434ee1fcd59e","order_by":0,"name":"Sophie 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