The persistence of groundwater depletion in the United States across widely ranging futures

The persistence of groundwater depletion in the United States across widely ranging futures | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article The persistence of groundwater depletion in the United States across widely ranging futures Jim Yoon, Stephen Ferencz, Travis Thurber This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6787098/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Groundwater resources are essential for crop production, enabling irrigation in many arid regions of the world. With a growing dependence on groundwater to serve increasing crop demands, concerns have been raised regarding alarming rates of groundwater depletion at the global scale. Modeling efforts focused on projecting future groundwater depletion have been limited by key factors: exogenous assumptions of human demand for groundwater that are unresponsive to changing groundwater availability and cost, simplistic treatment of the physics of groundwater depletion, narrow application to localized contexts, and limited exploration of future uncertainties. To address these gaps, we introduce a new coupled human-natural modeling approach for process-rich, broad-exploration of groundwater depletion futures, initially deployed for the continental United States. Our results indicate persistent groundwater depletion across a range of hydrologic-economic futures, with many of the key agricultural regions of the U.S. encountering substantial depletion even in the absence of adverse hydrologic or economic change. Earth and environmental sciences/Hydrology Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Environmental impact Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files 20250530GWDepletionSupplement.pdf Supplementary Material Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6787098","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":474935053,"identity":"b4d52e0f-293f-46ef-bc60-30d68a396bfc","order_by":0,"name":"Jim Yoon","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAuklEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBACxmYogx9EPCBJi2QDkEggyTqDA8RqYW7nTmDmqbDJM77de+xBAkOtHFgvfofxbmDmOZNWbHbnXLpBAsNxY+K08LYdTtx2I8dMIoHhWOLMBmK1bJ5BspYNEmAtNYn9BHSAtRyccyYtccadM0AtBgeM+QlpMew/u/HBmwqbxP7ZPWYSHyrq5NgIagG6/BAPiCUBIgwOE9LAwCAPctwPuBaGOsJaRsEoGAWjYMQBAJ6rPsshR16lAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8025-2587","institution":"Pacific Northwest National Laboratory","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Jim","middleName":"","lastName":"Yoon","suffix":""},{"id":474935054,"identity":"1aab1d56-ebbd-4f95-a6f6-beb3c9584186","order_by":1,"name":"Stephen Ferencz","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2953-8440","institution":"Pacific Northwest National Laboratory","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Stephen","middleName":"","lastName":"Ferencz","suffix":""},{"id":474935055,"identity":"2f1836e9-7918-4d62-8515-36235a3fcc99","order_by":2,"name":"Travis Thurber","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4370-9971","institution":"Pacific Northwest National Laboratory","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Travis","middleName":"","lastName":"Thurber","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-05-30 18:55:18","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6787098/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6787098/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":100362584,"identity":"f0cca4a2-dbe7-421b-89ea-6c4b4caf804b","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-01-16 07:47:20","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":3171249,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Article File","description":"","filename":"20250530GWDepletionManuscript.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6787098/v1_covered_432a2921-8e01-4bf8-baf4-da5ff50bccb5.pdf"},{"id":85262352,"identity":"fe57c367-f7a2-4895-a098-fb36c392e52d","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-06-24 04:19:29","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":3692776,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Supplementary Material","description":"","filename":"20250530GWDepletionSupplement.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6787098/v1/1ffc4c0860e85c98afcc80e7.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"There is \u003cb\u003eNO\u003c/b\u003e Competing Interest.","formattedTitle":"The persistence of groundwater depletion in the United States across widely ranging futures","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6787098/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6787098/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"Groundwater resources are essential for crop production, enabling irrigation in many arid regions of the world. With a growing dependence on groundwater to serve increasing crop demands, concerns have been raised regarding alarming rates of groundwater depletion at the global scale. Modeling efforts focused on projecting future groundwater depletion have been limited by key factors: exogenous assumptions of human demand for groundwater that are unresponsive to changing groundwater availability and cost, simplistic treatment of the physics of groundwater depletion, narrow application to localized contexts, and limited exploration of future uncertainties. To address these gaps, we introduce a new coupled human-natural modeling approach for process-rich, broad-exploration of groundwater depletion futures, initially deployed for the continental United States. Our results indicate persistent groundwater depletion across a range of hydrologic-economic futures, with many of the key agricultural regions of the U.S. encountering substantial depletion even in the absence of adverse hydrologic or economic change.","manuscriptTitle":"The persistence of groundwater depletion in the United States across widely ranging futures","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-06-24 04:19:24","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6787098/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"a24a6678-5329-4fab-a55f-38fa459d3564","owner":[],"postedDate":"June 24th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[{"id":50427481,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Hydrology"},{"id":50427482,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Environmental impact"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-01-12T07:30:53+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2025-06-24 04:19:24","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-6787098","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-6787098","identity":"rs-6787098","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}