Assessing the landscape potential to deliver ecosystem services in modeling scenarios of land use change

The article presents an algorithm for assessing the scenarios of land use change in terms of the landscape potential to deliver ecosystem services (ES). The developed algorithm was applied to the model area in Altai Krai (Russia) to assess scenarios for using fallow lands.The assessment was performed for local natural landscapes with consideration of their land use structure and based on productivity of forest ecosystems and agricultural lands (including pastures, hayfields and arable lands). For assessing the landscape potential to deliver ES, we used and mapped the economic value (US $ / ha / year) of seven ecosystem services.For spatial planning of land use structure and developing scenarios, we employed expert assessments and evaluation of permissible agricultural impact . These tools were successfully tested under designing scenarios for fallow lands use in the Zarinsky region. To check the effectiveness of the developed scenarios, ES were re-assessed and the obtained results compared with the original scenario.Our findings suggest that though economic indicators do not fully reflect the ES value, they can be used as the basis for decision-making in land use planning at the regional and sub-regional scales.