Optimal Crop Planning for Small-Scale Farmers using Portfolio Theory Considering Income Stability

Optimal Crop Planning for Small-Scale Farmers using Portfolio Theory Considering Income Stability | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Optimal Crop Planning for Small-Scale Farmers using Portfolio Theory Considering Income Stability Andrés Mauricio Paredes Rodríguez, Juan Pablo Orejuela Cabrera, and 1 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8533836/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 10 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Small-scale farmers play an indispensable role in achieving food sovereignty in developing countries, as they supply a significant share of food along the agricultural value chain. One of the most critical decisions they face is crop planning. Because agricultural production follows seasonal cycles, farmers often experience periods with limited or no income, which can severely affect their financial stability. This research proposes a novel mathematical model to determine the optimal combination of crops for small-scale farmers using a portfolio theory approach. The model seeks to maximise income while ensuring income stability by explicitly accounting for risks and uncertainties related to price variability and production cycles. The methodology consists of three phases. First, agricultural products suitable for cultivation in rural areas of a Colombian city are characterised based on technical, economic, and contextual criteria. Second, the identified crops are prioritised using the TOPSIS multi-criteria decision-making method. Finally, a commitment-based mixed-integer linear programming model is developed using assumptions derived from the characterisation phase and monthly price scenarios. The results show that crop portfolios focused exclusively on risk minimisation led to highly conservative strategies with limited diversification, whereas income-maximising portfolios increase exposure to volatility. In contrast, the balanced scenario identifies diversified crop portfolios that stabilise monthly income while maintaining acceptable profitability. These findings demonstrate the practical value of the proposed model as a decision-support tool for small-scale farmers and agricultural advisors, enabling informed crop planning decisions that enhance income stability and reduce vulnerability to market fluctuations. Crop planning small-scale farmers agrifood supply chains optimization portfolio theory Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 28 Apr, 2026 Reviews received at journal 17 Apr, 2026 Reviews received at journal 28 Feb, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 23 Feb, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 05 Feb, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 23 Jan, 2026 Reviewers invited by journal 15 Jan, 2026 Editor assigned by journal 07 Jan, 2026 Submission checks completed at journal 06 Jan, 2026 First submitted to journal 06 Jan, 2026 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8533836","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":576006053,"identity":"d025cb72-9dd4-4583-9d0c-07b4a5faec6f","order_by":0,"name":"Andrés Mauricio Paredes 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