The impact of COVID-19 on population cancer screening programs in Australia: modelled evaluations for breast, bowel and cervical cancer

Background Australia introduced COVID-19 infection prevention and control measures in early 2020. To help prepare health services the Australian Government Department of Health commissioned a modelled evaluation of the impact of disruptions to population breast, bowel and cervical cancer screening programs on cancer outcomes and cancer services. Methods We used the Policy1 modelling platforms to estimate outcomes for potential disruptions to cancer screening participation, covering periods of 3, 6, 9 and 12 months. We estimated missed screens, clinical outcomes (cancer incidence, tumour staging), and various diagnostic service impacts. Results We estimated that a 12-month screening disruption would reduce breast cancer diagnoses (9.3% population-level reduction over 2020-2021) and colorectal cancer (up to 12·1% reduction over 2020-21), and increase cervical cancer diagnoses (up to 3·6% over 2020-2022), with upstaging expected for these cancer types. Conclusions Findings: illustrate that maintaining screening participation is critical to sustaining a reduced cancer burden. We provide program-specific insights into which outcomes are expected to change, when changes are likely to become apparent, and likely downstream impacts. This evaluation provided evidence to guide decision-making for screening programs, and emphasises the ongoing benefits of maintaining screening in the face of potential future disruptions. Funding Australian Government Department of Health