Local climate and regional species pools determine community thermal affinity in European mountain butterflies

Local climate and regional species pools determine community thermal affinity in European mountain butterflies | Authorea try { document.documentElement.classList.add('js'); } catch (e) { } var _gaq = _gaq || []; _gaq.push(['_setAccount', 'G-8VDV14Y67G']); _gaq.push(['_trackPageview']); (function() { var ga = document.createElement('script'); ga.type = 'text/javascript'; ga.async = true; ga.src = ('https:' == document.location.protocol ? 'https://ssl' : 'http://www') + '.google-analytics.com/ga.js'; var s = document.getElementsByTagName('script')[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(ga, s); })(); Skip to main content Preprints Collections Wiley Open Research IET Open Research Ecological Society of Japan All Collections About About Authorea FAQs Contact Us Quick Search anywhere Search for preprint articles, keywords, etc. Search Search ADVANCED SEARCH SCROLL This is a preprint and has not been peer reviewed. Data may be preliminary. 22 December 2025 V1 Latest version Share on Local climate and regional species pools determine community thermal affinity in European mountain butterflies Authors : Guim Ursul 0000-0002-9183-9906 [email protected] , Elia Guariento 0000-0003-1060-9816 , Constanti Stefanescu 0000-0001-8952-7869 , Helena Romo , and Robert J. Wilson 0000-0003-4477-7068 Authors Info & Affiliations https://doi.org/10.22541/au.176643735.55928659/v1 199 views 104 downloads Contents Abstract Supplementary Material Information & Authors Metrics & Citations View Options References Figures Tables Media Share Abstract Multi-species indices of climatic affinity suggest that assemblages are responding idiosyncratically to climate change. While this is often invoked as evidence of ecological lags, community responses may also be constrained by regional species pools or by local adaptation across species ranges, potentially leading to misunderstanding of the drivers of heterogeneous responses, or inaccurate predictions of future biodiversity change. Here, we test whether two indices, Community Temperature Index (CTI) and Community Precipitation Index (CPI), respond consistently to climatic variation for butterflies across three European mountain regions. We monitored 225 butterfly communities between 2019 and 2023, across 300-2300 m elevation gradients in the Iberian Peninsula (Central Spain and Catalonia-Andorra) and Italian Alps (South Tyrol), calculating local CTI and CPI based on European species distributions, and climatic conditions using statistical downscaling. CTI increased with local temperature across all three regions. However, regional communities differed in thermal affinity at equivalent elevations and local temperatures, depending on the region: with higher CTI in Central Spain, intermediate values in Catalonia-Andorra, and lower CTI in South Tyrol. The differences in CTI at equivalent local temperatures disappeared when analyses were restricted to species shared across all regions, indicating that differences in regional species pools, rather than local adaptation, generated discrepancies in regional community associations with temperature. CPI showed less consistent results, suggesting less direct effects of precipitation on community composition. Even though community thermal affinities in the independent regions were constrained by regional species pools, the consistent responses of shared species to local climates imply thermal niche conservatism, and suggest that multi-species measures of thermal affinity provide a generally reliable indicator of how communities respond to local climates. Despite this, interpreting rates of community responses to climate change across broad geographic or climatic gradients requires careful consideration of constraints imposed by biogeographic differences in regional species pools. Supplementary Material File (ecography_manuscript_to_submit.docx) Download 2.87 MB Information & Authors Information Version history V1 Version 1 22 December 2025 Copyright This work is licensed under a Non Exclusive No Reuse License. Keywords climate tracking community temperature index (cti) elevation gradients lepidoptera niche conservatism thermal lags Authors Affiliations Guim Ursul 0000-0002-9183-9906 [email protected] Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales View all articles by this author Elia Guariento 0000-0003-1060-9816 EURAC Research View all articles by this author Constanti Stefanescu 0000-0001-8952-7869 Natural Sciences Museum of Granollers View all articles by this author Helena Romo Universidad Autónoma de Madrid View all articles by this author Robert J. Wilson 0000-0003-4477-7068 Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales View all articles by this author Metrics & Citations Metrics Article Usage 199 views 104 downloads .FvxKWukQNSOunydq8rnd { width: 100px; } Citations Download citation Guim Ursul, Elia Guariento, Constanti Stefanescu, et al. Local climate and regional species pools determine community thermal affinity in European mountain butterflies. Authorea . 22 December 2025. DOI: https://doi.org/10.22541/au.176643735.55928659/v1 If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download. For more information or tips please see 'Downloading to a citation manager' in the Help menu . Format Please select one from the list RIS (ProCite, Reference Manager) EndNote BibTex Medlars RefWorks Direct import Tips for downloading citations document.getElementById('citMgrHelpLink').addEventListener('click', function() { popupHelp(this.href); return false; }); $(".js__slcInclude").on("change", function(e){ if ($(this).val() == 'refworks') $('#direct').prop("checked", false); $('#direct').prop("disabled", ($(this).val() == 'refworks')); }); View Options View options PDF View PDF Figures Tables Media Share Share Share article link Copy Link Copied! Copying failed. 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