A habitat suitability model for testing and refining the range of Zuni fleabane, a threatened plant species

2024 · doi:10.32942/x2cg98
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This paper develops and field-validates an iterative, ensemble habitat suitability model for the narrow endemic threatened plant Zuni fleabane (Erigeron rhizomatus) to characterize both suitable habitat features and the extent of suitable areas across its range under changing climate and land use. Using surveys and model-based habitat probability (low to very high), the authors tested whether the model would only refine boundaries of known habitat rather than identify new populations, and they also analyzed biotic and abiotic determinants across geographically distant metapopulations. The model identified a new metapopulation beyond the three previously known, and it also found additional suitable habitat within previously known regions, disproving their null hypothesis. A key caveat noted is that model outputs are shared while inputs are not due to sensitivity of data for the threatened species. The paper does not explicitly discuss endometriosis or adenomyosis; it was included in the corpus via a keyword match in the upstream search index.

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Abstract

Land managers and conservation practitioners need practical tools to protect rare species in light of rapidly changing climate and land use patterns. Habitat suitability models are tools that can inform multiple-use land management decisions and target conservation actions. The narrow endemic Zuni fleabane, Erigeron rhizomatus, occurs on lands managed for multiple uses and was listed as threatened under the Endangered Species Act in 1985 due to the main threat of surface mining. Despite intermittent surveys in recent decades, managers still do not have a comprehensive understanding of suitable habitat characteristics or the geographic extent of suitable habitat across its range. We developed and field-validated a habitat suitability model for Zuni fleabane using an iterative, ensemble approach. We tested the null hypothesis that the model would not identify major new populations outside the known range but rather assist in refining the boundaries of known suitable habitat. We also set out to improve our understanding of biotic and abiotic characteristics that define suitable habitat across geographically distant metapopulations. Our model identified areas with low, medium, high, and very high probability of containing suitable habitat. We identified a new metapopulation beyond the three known (disproving our null hypothesis) as well as additional suitable habitat within the previously known regions. This model predicts where Zuni fleabane habitat likely occurs and may help land managers and conservation practitioners identify new populations, survey habitat at fine scales, avoid impacts from multiple-use management activities, and recover this threatened species.
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Abstract

Land managers and conservation practitioners need practical tools to protect rare species in light of rapidly changing climate and land use patterns. Habitat suitability models are tools that can inform multiple-use land management decisions and target conservation actions. The narrow endemic Zuni fleabane, Erigeron rhizomatus, occurs on lands managed for multiple uses and was listed as threatened under the Endangered Species Act in 1985 due to the main threat of surface mining. Despite intermittent surveys in recent decades, managers still do not have a comprehensive understanding of suitable habitat characteristics or the geographic extent of suitable habitat across its range. We developed and field-validated a habitat suitability model for Zuni fleabane using an iterative, ensemble approach. We tested the null hypothesis that the model would not identify major new populations outside the known range but rather assist in refining the boundaries of known suitable habitat. We also set out to improve our understanding of biotic and abiotic characteristics that define suitable habitat across geographically distant metapopulations. Our model identified areas with low, medium, high, and very high probability of containing suitable habitat. We identified a new metapopulation beyond the three known (disproving our null hypothesis) as well as additional suitable habitat within the previously known regions. This model predicts where Zuni fleabane habitat likely occurs and may help land managers and conservation practitioners identify new populations, survey habitat at fine scales, avoid impacts from multiple-use management activities, and recover this threatened species. DOI https://doi.org/10.32942/X2CG98 Subjects Ecology and Evolutionary Biology

Keywords

Zuni fleabane, Erigeron rhizomatus, U.S. Forest Service, Bureau of Land Management, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, New Mexico, Navajo Nation, ensemble modeling, rare plant, species distribution model, Endangered Species Act, Threatened Species, species recovery planning, species recovery criteria, Erigeron rhizomatus, U.S. Forest Service, Bureau of Land Management, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, New Mexico, Navajo Nation, Ensemble modeling, rare plant, species distribution model Dates Published: 2024-10-23 13:44 Last Updated: 2024-10-23 20:44 Older Versions License CC BY Attribution 4.0 International Additional Metadata Data and Code Availability Statement: https://doi.org/10.5066/P1JCXH4E (model outputs are available but not inputs due to sensitivity of data for the threatened species) Language: English

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