The Resilience of Fashion Retail Stores

The economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic have been devastating for physical retailers, especially for non-necessities such as fashion. But how bad exactly? How costly is a lockdown? We currently lack precise guidance. We report granular estimates on three dimensions that affected shopping behavior: lockdown and partial mobility restrictions, the local spread of the pandemic near the store, and travel shocks. While first- and second- wave lockdowns were fundamental drivers, consumer fear and tourism were also responsible for sales drops. Our results indicate a severe and heterogeneous retail impact, and inform important implications going forward.