COVID-19 pandemic: A Hill type mathematical model predicts the US death number and the reopening date

A mathematical model that can be used to estimate the total number of cases and deaths due to COVID-19 pandemic is presented in this study. The parameters and the associated uncertainty in the model are optimized and quantified using various reported data sets reported from different countries. The results suggest that, by the mid of June or early July 2020, the outbreak will strongly decay and the US will have about 800K confirmed cases and less than 50K deaths. Significance Statement This study presents a mathematical model that can be used to estimate the total number of cases and deaths in the US due to COVID-19. The model forecasting about < 800 K cases and < 50 K total numbers of deaths in the United States. The results suggest that late May or early June, 2020 is probably a good time to end the shutdown order and reopen the country for the daily routine business.