Projecting Environmental Improvements in Mineral Processing Pathways: the Case of Cathode Active Material Production

Projecting Environmental Improvements in Mineral Processing Pathways: the Case of Cathode Active Material Production | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Projecting Environmental Improvements in Mineral Processing Pathways: the Case of Cathode Active Material Production Sophia Roy, Ketan Vaidya, Jean-Philippe Harvey, Louis Fradette This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8787596/v2 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 2 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Show more versions Abstract Purpose Rapidly eliminating carbon emissions to the atmosphere to stabilize the Earth’s temperature challenges the retrieval of critical minerals in a responsible way. This work introduces a methodology to consider technological switches in mineral processing pathways as they will come online in the future and supports the prospective analysis of their impacts. Methods Examined technological switches span seven categories: 1) next-generation mineral processing pathways; 2) novel chemical production processes; 3) feedstock substitution for fuels and reductants; 4) reagent substitution; 5) circularity of industrial by-products; 6) valorization of tailings and other waste; and 7) improved water and emissions management practices. Process models of technological switches — sourced from process simulations and company data — are linked to our reconstructed granular inventories of mineral processing pathways. We illustrate our method with a case study on climate impacts, human carcinogenic toxicity and water consumption of three cathode active material (CAM) chemistries; nickel-manganese-cobalt in a 90%, 5% and 5% stoichiometric ratio (NMC955), lithium iron phosphate (LFP) and a nickel-rich (30%) sodium-ion variant (NMMT). Results and discussion By projecting improvements in nickel sulfate and iron phosphate processing pathways, we demonstrate absolute reductions of 16-86% in climate impacts (GWP100), 43-99.8% in human carcinogenic toxicity (HTP-c) and 19-63% in water consumption (WCP) by 2060; where long adoption periods for emerging technologies shrink cumulative reductions to 6% / 4% / 9% in GWP100, 57% / 55% / 24% in HTP-c and 10% / 0% / 29% in WCP between 2025-2060 for NMC955 hydroxide, NMMT and LFP CAM respectively. Cumulative reductions stand much lower than predictions from the prevailing premise tool (REMIND SSP2-PkBudg1150) for climate impacts of NMC955 hydroxide (-39%) and NMMT (-27%). In fact, projected impacts in premise are systematically lower for both climate and human toxicity (carcinogenic) across all CAM chemistries between 2025-2040. Conclusions Our proposed conceptual framework prevents over-optimistic modeling while retaining the required level of granularity in order to provide action-specific guidance to reduce environmental impacts of mineral processing pathways. We recommend its implementation within existing and emerging prospective tools and its application to a wider set of mineral-intensive ecosystems, such as the solar and wind industries. Environmental Engineering prospective life cycle assessment critical minerals batteries nickel sulfate iron phosphate climate change toxicity water consumption Full Text Additional Declarations The authors declare no competing interests. Supplementary Files SupplementaryInformationFile.pdf Supplementary Information File Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 2 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Show more versions Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8787596","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":588280054,"identity":"12dc066c-edad-4eee-ad97-365fb79411e3","order_by":0,"name":"Sophia 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This work introduces a methodology to consider technological switches in mineral processing pathways as they will come online in the future and supports the prospective analysis of their impacts.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eMethods\u003c/strong\u003eExamined technological switches span seven categories: 1) next-generation mineral processing pathways; 2) novel chemical production processes; 3) feedstock substitution for fuels and reductants; 4) reagent substitution; 5) circularity of industrial by-products; 6) valorization of tailings and other waste; and 7) improved water and emissions management practices. Process models of technological switches — sourced from process simulations and company data — are linked to our reconstructed granular inventories of mineral processing pathways. We illustrate our method with a case study on climate impacts, human carcinogenic toxicity and water consumption of three cathode active material (CAM) chemistries; nickel-manganese-cobalt in a 90%, 5% and 5% stoichiometric ratio (NMC955), lithium iron phosphate (LFP) and a nickel-rich (30%) sodium-ion variant (NMMT).\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eResults and discussion\u003c/strong\u003e By projecting improvements in nickel sulfate and iron phosphate processing pathways, we demonstrate absolute reductions of 16-86% in climate impacts (GWP100), 43-99.8% in human carcinogenic toxicity (HTP-c) and 19-63% in water consumption (WCP) by 2060; where long adoption periods for emerging technologies shrink cumulative reductions to 6% / 4% / 9% in GWP100, 57% / 55% / 24% in HTP-c and 10% / 0% / 29% in WCP between 2025-2060 for NMC955 hydroxide, NMMT and LFP CAM respectively. Cumulative reductions stand much lower than predictions from the prevailing \u003cem\u003epremise\u003c/em\u003etool (REMIND SSP2-PkBudg1150) for climate impacts of NMC955 hydroxide (-39%) and NMMT (-27%). In fact, projected impacts in \u003cem\u003epremise\u003c/em\u003e are systematically lower for both climate and human toxicity (carcinogenic) across all CAM chemistries between 2025-2040.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eConclusions \u003c/strong\u003eOur proposed conceptual framework prevents over-optimistic modeling while retaining the required level of granularity in order to provide action-specific guidance to reduce environmental impacts of mineral processing pathways. We recommend its implementation within existing and emerging prospective tools and its application to a wider set of mineral-intensive ecosystems, such as the solar and wind industries.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Projecting Environmental Improvements in Mineral Processing Pathways: the Case of Cathode Active Material Production","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":2,"date":"2026-04-03 20:22:48","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8787596/v2","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}},{"code":1,"date":"2026-02-09 12:33:42","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8787596/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"e9b8cff7-961c-4a29-9d79-b86411d7f9d4","owner":[],"postedDate":"April 3rd, 2026","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[{"id":62584454,"name":"Environmental Engineering"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-02-09T12:33:42+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2026-04-03 20:22:48","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v2","identity":"rs-8787596","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-8787596","identity":"rs-8787596","version":["v2"]},"buildId":"XKTyCvWXoU3ODBz1xrDgd","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}