The potential of emerging bio-based products to reduce environmental impacts

Abstract The current debate on the sustainability of bio-based products questions the environmental benefits of replacing fossil- by bio-resources. Here, we systematically analyzed the environmental trade-offs of 86 emerging bio-based materials compared to their fossil counterparts. Although greenhouse gas (GHG) life cycle emissions for emerging bio-based products are on average 47% lower (38-54%; 95% confidence interval), we found a large variation between individual bio-based products with none of them reaching net-zero emissions. Grouped in product-categories, our findings indicate that biorefinery products may have the highest predicted GHG reduction of 73% (50, 85%) and biofibers the lowest (29%; -61, 30%). Only for eutrophication we found statistical evidence for an increase in footprint (359%; 109-906%), indicating that environmental trade-offs should not be overlooked. Our findings imply that the environmental sustainability of bio-based products should be evaluated on an individual product basis and that more radical product developments are required to reach climate-neutral targets.