Tropical cyclone risk to global electricity supply

Tropical cyclone risk to global electricity supply | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Tropical cyclone risk to global electricity supply Jim Hall, Fred Thomas, Yu Mo, Jianan Rui, Tom Russell, Max Robertson, and 2 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-4650238/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract To analyse the risks from Tropical Cyclones (TC) to electricity supply, we have combined a large ensemble of TC simulations with a spatial model of power networks and people served, for the entire TC belt globally. The model of electricity power failure, measured in terms of population disrupted, was calibrated against nighttime lights satellite imagery of historic TC events. Use of spatially coherent TC simulations enabled the calculation of electricity supply losses at national, regional and global scales for a range of return periods.We estimate that between 65 and 80 million people lose electric power with a return period of 1 in 100 years, depending on the TC model. Most regions show a worsening of TC-induced outages under climate change (RCP8.5 2050), except for the North Indian Ocean, where there is disagreement between TC models. Climate model uncertainty (across four GCMs) influences the estimated global population at risk by a factor of 0.91-1.05 in 2050. Physical sciences/Energy science and technology/Energy modelling Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Climate-change impacts Physical sciences/Engineering/Energy infrastructure/Energy grids and networks Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files ThomasetalNatureEnergysupplementaryJune2024.pdf Supplementary information Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-4650238","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":326094669,"identity":"7790cfdf-8a94-4522-a711-100a838c63c7","order_by":0,"name":"Jim 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