Barents Sea Atlantification Driven by a Shift in Atmospheric Synoptic Timescale | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Barents Sea Atlantification Driven by a Shift in Atmospheric Synoptic Timescale Robinson Hordoir, Vahidreza Jahanmard, Pål Erik Isachsen, Ulrike Loeptien, and 3 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6046335/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 02 Jan, 2026 Read the published version in Nature Climate Change → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Climate change impinges on the Arctic Ocean, leading to sea ice loss and poten- tially drastic cascading ecosystem changes. Still, the underlying mechanisms are not yet comprehensively understood. A respective recent process is the Atlantifi- cation, coined to describe the growing influence of warm and salty waters from the Atlantic on the Arctic. A major contributor to this trend is the increasing ocean volume transport from the Nordic Seas to the Barents Sea. Despite its large importance and a multitude of hypotheses that have been put to test, this trend remains mainly unexplained. Here we explore non-linear effects and, for the first time, successfully link the flow trend through the Barents Sea opening to a frequency shift in the atmospheric synoptic. Earth and environmental sciences/Ocean sciences/Physical oceanography Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Ocean sciences/Physical oceanography Arctic Ocean Barents Sea transport Climate Change Deep Learning Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 02 Jan, 2026 Read the published version in Nature Climate Change → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6046335","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":483125586,"identity":"8a0c0bf9-1eb8-4209-809c-287449b99d37","order_by":0,"name":"Robinson Hordoir","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA1ElEQVRIiWNgGAWjYFACHoYDYFoCzJZg4JdgbCBRi+QMIrQwIGlhYDC4QUCDeXvvwcMFf2zyGKSbj314U2GRb3y7uYG5oAK3Fpkz5xIOz2xLK2aQOZY8c84ZCcttdw42MM84g1uLhESOwWHehsOJDRI5xsy8bRIGZjcSG4AMAlp4/iBpMZ5BlBY2JC0GEoS08AD9wtuWltgmkZbMCPSLgQTQYYd58PmFvffwZ54/Non9EsmHGd5U1Bnwz0h/+JgHT4jBARsy5wARGkbBKBgFo2AU4AEAkExKfy4l7dcAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"","institution":"Institute of Marine Research","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Robinson","middleName":"","lastName":"Hordoir","suffix":""},{"id":483125587,"identity":"1cf422c9-df18-4fd3-ba4b-7c8a9a0b1f13","order_by":1,"name":"Vahidreza Jahanmard","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Tallinn University of Technology","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Vahidreza","middleName":"","lastName":"Jahanmard","suffix":""},{"id":483125588,"identity":"f70acfad-6030-4a46-9675-6c70ff18bd51","order_by":2,"name":"Pål Erik Isachsen","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Oslo","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Pål","middleName":"Erik","lastName":"Isachsen","suffix":""},{"id":483125589,"identity":"cb7312c9-0b41-4572-bec7-999a6c98f20f","order_by":3,"name":"Ulrike Loeptien","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8765-4183","institution":"University of Kiel (CAU)","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Ulrike","middleName":"","lastName":"Loeptien","suffix":""},{"id":483125590,"identity":"7e6c9527-99b7-4967-9805-95b8d6d550ed","order_by":4,"name":"Heiner Dietze","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Kiel","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Heiner","middleName":"","lastName":"Dietze","suffix":""},{"id":483125591,"identity":"5dc7b760-5195-4c41-bc6a-3cffd63a2102","order_by":5,"name":"Anne Britt Sandø","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Institute of Marine Research","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Anne","middleName":"Britt","lastName":"Sandø","suffix":""},{"id":483125592,"identity":"b02502fc-c7e6-4107-bffd-908daf98ae76","order_by":6,"name":"Vidar Lien","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5737-8878","institution":"Institute of Marine Research","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Vidar","middleName":"","lastName":"Lien","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-02-17 09:21:10","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6046335/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6046335/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[{"content":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02535-3","type":"published","date":"2026-01-02T05:00:00+00:00"}],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":99419067,"identity":"a82ee389-cd06-4ee2-94c0-1e3a6d83d39d","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-01-03 08:08:12","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":11821430,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Article File","description":"","filename":"hordoiretal.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6046335/v1_covered_43d7a6dc-4825-48c2-9e37-2f583d9a8577.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"There is \u003cb\u003eNO\u003c/b\u003e Competing Interest.","formattedTitle":"Barents Sea Atlantification Driven by a Shift in\r\nAtmospheric Synoptic Timescale","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"
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