Consequences of adopting national consumption-based climate targets alongside the territorial commitments under the Paris Agreement

Abstract National emission reduction targets under the Paris Agreement have a territorial focus, incentivizing mitigation actions domestically. Here we scrutinize the theoretical basis for adopting complementary consumption-based net-zero emission targets and assess the consequences of adopting such proposed targets for Sweden. We apply scenario analyses based on a prospective lifecycle assessment framework. The framework is a hybrid between bottom-up simulations – for passenger travel, construction and housing, and food – and top-down analyses covering remaining consumption. In this work, we show how consumption-based climate targets accentuate the need for new demand-side climate policies that contribute to reducing emissions along value chains of products and services. Combining advanced mitigation technologies with behavioral changes could achieve emission reductions from 9.8 tons of carbon dioxide equivalents per capita in 2019 to between 2.7 and 4.8 tons by 2045 for Swedish residents, depending on global decarbonization pathways.