Predicting Students' Progress in Intelligent Tutoring Systems

Intelligent Tutoring Systems (ITS) are increasingly popular for online learning. These systems use adaptive algorithms to recommend relevant content based on students' profiles. However, instructors need to periodically assess students' performance to ensure learning outcomes and adjust strategies accordingly. Our objective is to predict students' progress in advance, enabling teachers to make quicker decisions and facilitating the iterative process of adaptive algorithms. For this study, we collected a dataset from ALIN, an online learning platform, consisting of over 5,000 students' learning records and test results. Using this dataset, we conducted experiments employing various machine learning algorithms. The results indicate that learning behavior contributes to improving forecast performance, while students' progress strongly correlates with their previous test results. Additionally, we discovered that students' progress can be indirectly predicted by forecasting their scores. Furthermore, by breaking down overall scores into several distinct components and predicting individual scores for each component, the accuracy of the forecasts can be improved.