Climate change impacts on agricultural green productivity in China

Climate change impacts on agricultural green productivity in China | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Climate change impacts on agricultural green productivity in China Xin Peng This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7800476/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 26 Feb, 2026 Read the published version in Regional Environmental Change → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Climate change significantly impacts agricultural production practices and pollutant emissions. China, one of the world's largest agricultural nations, is particularly sensitive to climate change. Using the relevant data of 2533 counties in China between 2000 to 2020, this study calculates and compares water pollutants-based agricultural green productivity changes when climate factors are and aren’t included into the production function, and assesses the impacts of climate change on agricultural green productivity. Results reveal that agricultural green productivity change including climate factors are generally less than those excluding climate factors, indicating that climate change has an overall negative impact on agricultural green productivity change in China. Compared with agricultural green total factor productivity change(AGTFPC) and agricultural green technology progress change(AGTC), the negative impact of climate change on agricultural green technology efficiency change(AGEC) is generally smaller. Additionally, this paper conducts a regional comparative analysis on climate change affecting agricultural green productivity, and finds that climate change has negative impacts on AGTFPC, AGEC and AGTC in almost all agricultural regions, except for positive impacts on AGEC in Yunnan-guizhou Plateau and Sichuan Basin and surrounding areas, and AGTC in South China. This study is helpful in shaping climate-resilient policies to increase agricultural sustainability. Climate change Water pollutants Agricultural green production Regional comparison Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 26 Feb, 2026 Read the published version in Regional Environmental Change → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7800476","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":533935647,"identity":"65e139eb-40e0-444a-9987-8ae17f8a2878","order_by":0,"name":"Xin Peng","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA3ElEQVRIiWNgGAWjYNACAwYeNmaGxAcJFTbEa5HhY294bPDgTBrx9tjI8Rx8Jvmw7RBhpebsvYdf8xTc4WGTSE6rSGA7wMDf3p2AV4tlz7k0yxkGz4Ba0tJuJPDcYZA4c3YDXi0GN3LMDD4YHAZqyQFqkXjGYCCRS0DL/TdmBglgLfnfCoAMIrTc4DF+ALaF50AaQ0ICEVose3LMGGeAtLA3JEskHEjjIegXc/Yzxp95/hy2l29mSPz485+NHH97LwGHMTCwSSAL8OBVDtXC/IGgqlEwCkbBKBjZAAD4k0joS75/iAAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"","institution":"Sichuan Agricultural University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Xin","middleName":"","lastName":"Peng","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-10-07 14:23:21","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7800476/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7800476/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[{"content":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-026-02545-7","type":"published","date":"2026-02-26T15:58:57+00:00"}],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":94471427,"identity":"f7c5949d-9e21-4050-934c-5f8c4e1adf04","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-10-27 15:36:48","extension":"doc","order_by":0,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":18430464,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"manuscript.doc","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7800476/v1/d2bece7a8b9a5ce491e2655e.doc"},{"id":94471374,"identity":"1832888a-6ca1-49bc-b4c8-ddb62bdfbeaa","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-10-27 15:36:33","extension":"json","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":4485,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"fbd5dd12eb574b08a99a8a83c49fc023.json","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7800476/v1/5f76dfe541fa15d10963ad93.json"},{"id":94471033,"identity":"dce84c4f-2add-48ca-a506-3d4847eaafd7","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-10-27 15:35:16","extension":"xml","order_by":2,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":156295,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"fbd5dd12eb574b08a99a8a83c49fc0231enriched.xml","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7800476/v1/69d44f75a2c9bfaa353c0dd9.xml"},{"id":94471310,"identity":"26ffa7dc-3ed7-47a1-baba-644244398a72","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-10-27 15:36:18","extension":"eps","order_by":3,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":606,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"drawingimage1.eps","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7800476/v1/50fc74dc9b85e3cfa831dd10.eps"},{"id":94489599,"identity":"2615d34e-3f2a-4a6a-a5a4-dbdeb088a7ca","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-10-27 17:05:15","extension":"eps","order_by":4,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":590,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"drawingimage2.eps","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7800476/v1/6859bf81923591e7bbc689ae.eps"},{"id":94471416,"identity":"1a1d9b8b-4cd6-417c-bda6-f65155cf707b","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-10-27 15:36:41","extension":"eps","order_by":5,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":578,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"drawingimage3.eps","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7800476/v1/942be6565cb2eec7c6e15c76.eps"},{"id":94470987,"identity":"130f2f28-6a84-401c-a48e-15e23a0d6eb2","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-10-27 15:35:11","extension":"png","order_by":6,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":80198,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"floatimage1.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7800476/v1/80f1256c653a184e72b53512.png"},{"id":94471389,"identity":"9c24ff93-8a4d-47ad-905b-5ddc00daf4b9","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-10-27 15:36:35","extension":"jpeg","order_by":7,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":465891,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"floatimage10.jpeg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7800476/v1/6abecba76de78ed4eb038c19.jpeg"},{"id":94471283,"identity":"ec62b330-5c79-4e76-9552-7ea65f3eb0e6","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-10-27 15:36:04","extension":"jpeg","order_by":8,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":8169,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"floatimage11.jpeg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7800476/v1/c929059833a18eaa73ff2fbe.jpeg"},{"id":94471387,"identity":"53d5dbd2-1714-48e6-8e2f-df8eaa559430","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-10-27 15:36:35","extension":"png","order_by":9,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":21043,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"floatimage12.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7800476/v1/967ce5a2cb11aaaf99f8298c.png"},{"id":94471377,"identity":"f496cb70-5012-4682-a592-442ce0d2909f","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-10-27 15:36:33","extension":"jpeg","order_by":10,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":532716,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"floatimage2.jpeg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7800476/v1/122acc58ad51f2807f192d00.jpeg"},{"id":94471390,"identity":"eac4bce7-d8ac-4446-a154-64fea75cb293","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-10-27 15:36:36","extension":"png","order_by":11,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":45451,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"floatimage3.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7800476/v1/617891167d36a9a87acc459d.png"},{"id":94471178,"identity":"3bc03ffc-4e51-4c80-a471-edd727fc5a53","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-10-27 15:35:51","extension":"png","order_by":12,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":20775,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"floatimage4.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7800476/v1/575dbc15ef156094401001c3.png"},{"id":94471394,"identity":"81ebdc70-0f22-44db-ac26-33e5f3efacac","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-10-27 15:36:37","extension":"jpeg","order_by":13,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":790767,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"floatimage5.jpeg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7800476/v1/ddf0d88f385b5aaabed1dbf1.jpeg"},{"id":94471463,"identity":"b6679879-e4d7-4f6b-b9e2-31922e00acb0","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-10-27 15:37:01","extension":"jpeg","order_by":14,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":777511,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"floatimage6.jpeg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7800476/v1/da1a7b3310f165344208d83a.jpeg"},{"id":94471187,"identity":"06c0d3ad-03ae-4222-8270-7e6dfdce5fb4","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-10-27 15:35:51","extension":"png","order_by":15,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":31191,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"floatimage7.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7800476/v1/8d4db7ba6b1e30b1e8278f54.png"},{"id":94471209,"identity":"1ae77e8f-043b-4a12-b213-4fa4b08a4a64","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-10-27 15:35:55","extension":"png","order_by":16,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":17714,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"floatimage8.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7800476/v1/16cd68ff370aedb4bd0db7c5.png"},{"id":94471391,"identity":"449bf6d0-4b80-4e45-8f04-975a3e260140","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-10-27 15:36:36","extension":"jpeg","order_by":17,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":470050,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"floatimage9.jpeg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7800476/v1/d703801ea26360c8d27dab57.jpeg"},{"id":94471434,"identity":"9a38f466-7d27-4a0c-9d7e-610b005e96f1","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-10-27 15:36:50","extension":"jpeg","order_by":18,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":30203,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"groupimage1.jpeg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7800476/v1/97cb7e29d8a6c8dc4aa3048f.jpeg"},{"id":94471186,"identity":"1f5eec3f-5691-4152-9a5d-51692595dbf9","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-10-27 15:35:51","extension":"jpeg","order_by":19,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":42090,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"groupimage2.jpeg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7800476/v1/242f603b06551697dd0d19ca.jpeg"},{"id":94490150,"identity":"c9c48fc0-8a59-410a-b8db-41cbecf488c6","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-10-27 17:07:53","extension":"png","order_by":20,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":20995,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Onlinefloatimage1.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7800476/v1/262b5ca8927bd18a3a2f0c2c.png"},{"id":94471358,"identity":"0a20d24d-e056-4485-b01e-38ead86dc8be","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-10-27 15:36:31","extension":"png","order_by":21,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":100169,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Onlinefloatimage10.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7800476/v1/7985727f5314fe21549ad4ac.png"},{"id":94471380,"identity":"3c8b72ed-cf29-4568-a629-edd288a592b2","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-10-27 15:36:34","extension":"png","order_by":22,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":2368,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Onlinefloatimage11.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7800476/v1/6189907c417ed53471810285.png"},{"id":94471109,"identity":"fefc925c-07a6-46a4-a7d8-e5fd3bec5db6","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-10-27 15:35:41","extension":"png","order_by":23,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":9766,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Onlinefloatimage12.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7800476/v1/9fdc1fea3995c98087c4c8c6.png"},{"id":94471372,"identity":"6fab01ba-9b1c-4a9a-8f92-29821d006d8c","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-10-27 15:36:33","extension":"png","order_by":24,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":196163,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Onlinefloatimage2.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7800476/v1/c226db8b9c83e535c3356b6b.png"},{"id":94471343,"identity":"fdd98080-fc47-4581-811d-cfdabb4944bc","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-10-27 15:36:28","extension":"png","order_by":25,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":20252,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Onlinefloatimage3.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7800476/v1/f04b638b13fbffc485ddda98.png"},{"id":94471425,"identity":"189a97da-00bf-4aed-90a2-dc55801d88d3","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-10-27 15:36:46","extension":"png","order_by":26,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":14832,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Onlinefloatimage4.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7800476/v1/d57b165f5b31be844d5b33fc.png"},{"id":94471370,"identity":"435dc4b4-1946-492d-b90e-b39572e3610d","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-10-27 15:36:33","extension":"png","order_by":27,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":250018,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Onlinefloatimage5.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7800476/v1/237d7737453786614e926efc.png"},{"id":94471307,"identity":"e23ff1a7-9771-4185-9d7d-7f56af238b62","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-10-27 15:36:16","extension":"png","order_by":28,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":239076,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Onlinefloatimage6.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7800476/v1/a3a51534c8862ae61c6836f6.png"},{"id":94471402,"identity":"8490ead6-5aec-455e-96ca-89c2788f54fe","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-10-27 15:36:38","extension":"png","order_by":29,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":15438,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Onlinefloatimage7.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7800476/v1/b60370cdf9506536770a7a49.png"},{"id":94471435,"identity":"35b0a611-2932-4643-814b-606ab42db10c","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-10-27 15:36:50","extension":"png","order_by":30,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":11864,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Onlinefloatimage8.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7800476/v1/ef69a8658d41847aa4370afa.png"},{"id":94471074,"identity":"1fc51d43-6797-4d4b-bac4-4f170cfa47fd","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-10-27 15:35:36","extension":"png","order_by":31,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":162570,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Onlinefloatimage9.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7800476/v1/fa4169c9045cd8976394d9e6.png"},{"id":94471284,"identity":"a7371d5d-29ea-4aee-81f4-22a28870fd13","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-10-27 15:36:04","extension":"png","order_by":32,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":16420,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Onlinegroupimage1.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7800476/v1/118d2b1e3fe6a8f07a59a81f.png"},{"id":94471404,"identity":"96bc332d-87c5-48ff-ab76-434088103d5f","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-10-27 15:36:38","extension":"png","order_by":33,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":10696,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Onlinegroupimage2.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7800476/v1/fdb3186a054d067e8fbbc91a.png"},{"id":94471369,"identity":"876ec9c2-bc5d-4fe4-813e-bee3f9617fd5","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-10-27 15:36:32","extension":"xml","order_by":34,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":153373,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"fbd5dd12eb574b08a99a8a83c49fc0231structuring.xml","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7800476/v1/9f7f31ddaf3e6dd28347552a.xml"},{"id":94471361,"identity":"79f42ae9-2857-4b50-854a-eff448ec9920","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-10-27 15:36:31","extension":"html","order_by":35,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":165366,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"earlyproof.html","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7800476/v1/36ad0a02d2813c66f6456b38.html"},{"id":103765670,"identity":"bcf0ae75-54a7-45b1-9bbe-013b338e02ae","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-03-02 16:07:02","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1131276,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"manuscript.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7800476/v1_covered_f14a2b8a-0cc8-492d-989f-482516b57e13.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Climate change impacts on agricultural green productivity in China","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Climate change, Water pollutants, Agricultural green production, Regional comparison","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7800476/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7800476/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eClimate change significantly impacts agricultural production practices and pollutant emissions. China, one of the world's largest agricultural nations, is particularly sensitive to climate change. Using the relevant data of 2533 counties in China between 2000 to 2020, this study calculates and compares water pollutants-based agricultural green productivity changes when climate factors are and aren\u0026rsquo;t included into the production function, and assesses the impacts of climate change on agricultural green productivity. Results reveal that agricultural green productivity change including climate factors are generally less than those excluding climate factors, indicating that climate change has an overall negative impact on agricultural green productivity change in China. Compared with agricultural green total factor productivity change(AGTFPC) and agricultural green technology progress change(AGTC), the negative impact of climate change on agricultural green technology efficiency change(AGEC) is generally smaller. Additionally, this paper conducts a regional comparative analysis on climate change affecting agricultural green productivity, and finds that climate change has negative impacts on AGTFPC, AGEC and AGTC in almost all agricultural regions, except for positive impacts on AGEC in Yunnan-guizhou Plateau and Sichuan Basin and surrounding areas, and AGTC in South China. This study is helpful in shaping climate-resilient policies to increase agricultural sustainability.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Climate change impacts on agricultural green productivity in China","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-10-27 14:11:19","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7800476/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"63053d1d-47e0-4403-b546-c8bfbd0beb9b","owner":[],"postedDate":"October 27th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-03-02T16:03:53+00:00","versionOfRecord":{"articleIdentity":"rs-7800476","link":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-026-02545-7","journal":{"identity":"regional-environmental-change","isVorOnly":false,"title":"Regional Environmental Change"},"publishedOn":"2026-02-26 15:58:57","publishedOnDateReadable":"February 26th, 2026"},"versionCreatedAt":"2025-10-27 14:11:19","video":"","vorDoi":"10.1007/s10113-026-02545-7","vorDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-026-02545-7","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-7800476","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-7800476","identity":"rs-7800476","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}