Rising Waters: Designing Climate-Resilient Urban Drainage System

Rising Waters: Designing Climate-Resilient Urban Drainage System | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Rising Waters: Designing Climate-Resilient Urban Drainage System Muhammad Adnan, Fayaz Ahmad Khan, Afed Ullah Khan, Basir Ullah, and 1 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7449390/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 31 Jan, 2026 Read the published version in Water Conservation Science and Engineering → Version 1 posted 11 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Pakistan is increasingly susceptible to extreme weather events driven by climate change. The country faced unprecedented monsoon rainfall during the summer of 2022, resulting in the most severe flooding in its history. Such impacts of climate change have the potential to initiate significant negative feedback loops that could profoundly affect urban infrastructure. This study underscores the urgent need to modify urban infrastructure in response to evolving climatic conditions by assessing the effects of climate change on drainage systems in Phase 05 Hayatabad, Peshawar. The research aims to estimate the potential impacts on urban drainage systems. The methodology involves analyzing precipitation data from the past decade to construct intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves, which are vital for designing resilient infrastructure, using the Gumbel approach. The study further employs the CMHYD tool for downscaling and bias correction of Global Climate Models (GCMs) to project future climate scenarios. This data is integrated into the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) to develop a resilient drainage infrastructure system incorporating climate projections and historical data. This comprehensive approach identifies potential cost increases due to climate change and provides practical recommendations for enhancing infrastructure resilience in Peshawar and similar cities. The study offers critical insights for policymakers and urban planners on developing infrastructure systems capable of withstanding future climate challenges, thereby promoting sustainable urban development. IDF curve SWMM CMHYD Climate change GCMs SSPs Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 31 Jan, 2026 Read the published version in Water Conservation Science and Engineering → Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 27 Oct, 2025 Reviews received at journal 15 Oct, 2025 Reviews received at journal 13 Oct, 2025 Reviews received at journal 04 Oct, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 17 Sep, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 16 Sep, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 14 Sep, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 14 Sep, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 03 Sep, 2025 Submission checks completed at journal 03 Sep, 2025 First submitted to journal 24 Aug, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7449390","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":516809873,"identity":"e14aa3d0-57bb-4773-8577-af6108a87a02","order_by":0,"name":"Muhammad Adnan","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Engineering and Technology","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Muhammad","middleName":"","lastName":"Adnan","suffix":""},{"id":516809874,"identity":"192076c6-d7d6-4a79-ad40-33c46c283743","order_by":1,"name":"Fayaz Ahmad Khan","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Engineering and 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Engineering","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"IDF curve, SWMM, CMHYD, Climate change, GCMs, SSPs","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7449390/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7449390/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003ePakistan is increasingly susceptible to extreme weather events driven by climate change. The country faced unprecedented monsoon rainfall during the summer of 2022, resulting in the most severe flooding in its history. Such impacts of climate change have the potential to initiate significant negative feedback loops that could profoundly affect urban infrastructure. This study underscores the urgent need to modify urban infrastructure in response to evolving climatic conditions by assessing the effects of climate change on drainage systems in Phase 05 Hayatabad, Peshawar. The research aims to estimate the potential impacts on urban drainage systems. The methodology involves analyzing precipitation data from the past decade to construct intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves, which are vital for designing resilient infrastructure, using the Gumbel approach. The study further employs the CMHYD tool for downscaling and bias correction of Global Climate Models (GCMs) to project future climate scenarios. This data is integrated into the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) to develop a resilient drainage infrastructure system incorporating climate projections and historical data. This comprehensive approach identifies potential cost increases due to climate change and provides practical recommendations for enhancing infrastructure resilience in Peshawar and similar cities. The study offers critical insights for policymakers and urban planners on developing infrastructure systems capable of withstanding future climate challenges, thereby promoting sustainable urban development.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Rising Waters: Designing Climate-Resilient Urban Drainage System","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-09-22 21:46:23","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7449390/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0},{"type":"decision","content":"Revision requested","date":"2025-10-27T04:51:21+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2025-10-15T04:53:17+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2025-10-13T19:31:02+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2025-10-04T17:45:01+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"181314453691056139578507609088046822408","date":"2025-09-18T02:57:12+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"290556217695295208456085500552971645180","date":"2025-09-17T03:30:06+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"68012820929387784087363510814216731557","date":"2025-09-15T03:22:21+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewersInvited","content":"","date":"2025-09-15T03:20:11+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorAssigned","content":"","date":"2025-09-03T04:37:55+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"checksComplete","content":"","date":"2025-09-03T04:37:09+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"submitted","content":"Water Conservation Science and Engineering","date":"2025-08-25T03:48:42+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"water-conservation-science-and-engineering","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"wcse","sideBox":"Learn more about [Water Conservation Science and Engineering](http://link.springer.com/journal/41101)","snPcode":"41101","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/41101/3","title":"Water Conservation Science and Engineering","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"e1d74459-20c5-4917-80dd-993d27ac25d9","owner":[],"postedDate":"September 22nd, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"published-in-journal","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-02-02T16:02:05+00:00","versionOfRecord":{"articleIdentity":"rs-7449390","link":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s41101-026-00482-4","journal":{"identity":"water-conservation-science-and-engineering","isVorOnly":false,"title":"Water Conservation Science and Engineering"},"publishedOn":"2026-01-31 15:58:11","publishedOnDateReadable":"January 31st, 2026"},"versionCreatedAt":"2025-09-22 21:46:23","video":"","vorDoi":"10.1007/s41101-026-00482-4","vorDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s41101-026-00482-4","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-7449390","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-7449390","identity":"rs-7449390","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}