Response of carbon storage to land use change and Multi-Scenario predictions in Zunyi, China

Response of carbon storage to land use change and Multi-Scenario predictions in Zunyi, China | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Response of carbon storage to land use change and Multi-Scenario predictions in Zunyi, China Yi Liu, Xuemeng Mei, Li Yue, Mingming Zhang This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-4560708/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 02 Jan, 2025 Read the published version in Scientific Reports → Version 1 posted 11 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Evaluating and predicting how carbon storage (CS) responds to land use change can optimize future spatial layouts and coordinate the relationship between land use and ecosystem services. This study aimed to explore the spatiotemporal evolution of CS in Zunyi from 2000 to 2020, investigate the driving factors of CS, and predict spatiotemporal changes under multiple scenarios in 2030. Woodland (> 62%) and farmland (> 30%) are the main land use types in Zunyi. The land use changes included decreases in farmland (-0.92%) and grassland (-0.76%) and an increase in construction land (+ 0.92%). In 2000, 2010, and 2020, CS in Zunyi was 658.77×10^6 t, 661.44×10^6 t, and 658.35×10^6 t, respectively, initially increasing then decreasing. Woodland, farmland and grassland conversions to construction land and water were primarily responsible for CS loss. The NDVI is the main driving factor influencing the spatial pattern of CS (q > 10%). Furthermore, the impacts of the human footprint index and population density are increasing. In 2030, the CS in Zunyi is projected to decrease under the NDS, ECS and CDS scenarios. Under the ECS, CS is estimated to be 656.67×10^6 t, with the smallest decrease (-0.26%); moreover, this scenario effectively alleviates the decreases in farmland and woodland. Earth and environmental sciences/Ecology Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental sciences Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Supplementary Files Supplementarymaterial.rar Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 02 Jan, 2025 Read the published version in Scientific Reports → Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 22 Aug, 2024 Reviews received at journal 21 Aug, 2024 Reviewers agreed at journal 13 Aug, 2024 Reviews received at journal 30 Jul, 2024 Reviewers agreed at journal 10 Jul, 2024 Reviewers agreed at journal 10 Jul, 2024 Reviewers invited by journal 02 Jul, 2024 Editor assigned by journal 02 Jul, 2024 Editor invited by journal 11 Jun, 2024 Submission checks completed at journal 11 Jun, 2024 First submitted to journal 10 Jun, 2024 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-4560708","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":318761339,"identity":"68e2c2a1-7e0c-4d06-b193-d2c85ac8064b","order_by":0,"name":"Yi Liu","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Guizhou University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Yi","middleName":"","lastName":"Liu","suffix":""},{"id":318761341,"identity":"b61c1011-5fda-433a-8baf-326f9c825a88","order_by":1,"name":"Xuemeng Mei","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Guizhou University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Xuemeng","middleName":"","lastName":"Mei","suffix":""},{"id":318761342,"identity":"a6af8689-3051-41ba-83e3-426c7d19d203","order_by":2,"name":"Li Yue","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Guizhou University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Li","middleName":"","lastName":"Yue","suffix":""},{"id":318761343,"identity":"afb0f09d-4f88-41cb-80be-7f12799861f2","order_by":3,"name":"Mingming Zhang","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAyklEQVRIiWNgGAWjYHACNhAhh8QmUosx6VoSG4jWojvt+LMHP3fUps/3P2PA8KHsMAP/7Ab8WsxuJ6Qb9p45nrvxwBkDxhnnDjNI3DlAUMsxCd62Y7kbG3sMmHnbDjMYSCQQ0pLYJvm37Vi6YTOPAfNf4rQks0nzttUkyLMBtTASpyWNTVq27YDhBh62goM959J5JG4Q1JL+TPJtW528fP/hjQ9+lFnL8c8goAUKgO45wMAARAw8RKkHgjoG+QZi1Y6CUTAKRsGIAwBTVEOJKrFrmwAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"","institution":"Guizhou University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Mingming","middleName":"","lastName":"Zhang","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2024-06-11 02:31:20","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4560708/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4560708/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[{"content":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-81444-5","type":"published","date":"2025-01-02T15:57:31+00:00"}],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":73093297,"identity":"c5479e52-4030-4795-8aa7-27575d64d9c4","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-01-06 16:13:04","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1614338,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"ResponseofcarbonstoragetolandusechangeandMultiScenariopredictionsinZunyiChina.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4560708/v1_covered_a33918bb-a375-4b1f-8ec6-fb81953712e1.pdf"},{"id":59138021,"identity":"f3c918dd-22d6-4381-8382-4acbb08b11dd","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-06-26 19:04:37","extension":"rar","order_by":3,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":38772113,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Supplementarymaterial.rar","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4560708/v1/fe1b2e1d6792713f29ef64bc.rar"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Response of carbon storage to land use change and Multi-Scenario predictions in Zunyi, China","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"scientific-reports","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"scirep","sideBox":"Learn more about [Scientific Reports](http://www.nature.com/srep/)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Scientific Reports","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"Scientific Reports","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4560708/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4560708/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eEvaluating and predicting how carbon storage (CS) responds to land use change can optimize future spatial layouts and coordinate the relationship between land use and ecosystem services. This study aimed to explore the spatiotemporal evolution of CS in Zunyi from 2000 to 2020, investigate the driving factors of CS, and predict spatiotemporal changes under multiple scenarios in 2030. Woodland (\u0026gt;\u0026thinsp;62%) and farmland (\u0026gt;\u0026thinsp;30%) are the main land use types in Zunyi. The land use changes included decreases in farmland (-0.92%) and grassland (-0.76%) and an increase in construction land (+\u0026thinsp;0.92%). In 2000, 2010, and 2020, CS in Zunyi was 658.77\u0026times;10^6 t, 661.44\u0026times;10^6 t, and 658.35\u0026times;10^6 t, respectively, initially increasing then decreasing. Woodland, farmland and grassland conversions to construction land and water were primarily responsible for CS loss. The NDVI is the main driving factor influencing the spatial pattern of CS (q\u0026thinsp;\u0026gt;\u0026thinsp;10%). Furthermore, the impacts of the human footprint index and population density are increasing. 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