Subpolar North Atlantic Ocean Heat Content as a Precursor to 21st-century Arctic Temperature Variability

Subpolar North Atlantic Ocean Heat Content as a Precursor to 21st-century Arctic Temperature Variability | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Subpolar North Atlantic Ocean Heat Content as a Precursor to 21st-century Arctic Temperature Variability Di Cai, Xianyao Chen This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7217597/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 24 Dec, 2025 Read the published version in Scientific Reports → Version 1 posted 12 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Arctic surface temperatures exhibit a pronounced multi-decadal oscillation superimposed on the long-term anthropogenic warming trend, yet its drivers remain poorly understood. Here, we investigate the mechanisms governing this 21st-century variability using the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble combined with a time-evolving radiative kernel method. We identify a key oceanic mechanism initiated in the subpolar North Atlantic, where variability in upper-layer (0–200 m) ocean heat content precedes fluctuations in poleward ocean heat transport (OHT) by approximately five years. These OHT anomalies, in turn, trigger Arctic surface temperature changes by two years. OHT directly accounts for 44.5% of Arctic temperature variability, while local feedbacks (principally albedo and lapse rate) amplify this signal, contributing an additional 53.5%. This process of oceanic preconditioning and subsequent amplification is most pronounced in the Barents, Kara, and East Siberian Seas. These findings underscore that oceanic processes, originating in the subpolar North Atlantic and propagating into the Arctic, are critical in modulating the phase of Arctic multi-decadal temperature variability. Understanding this sequential mechanism could enhance decadal to multi-decadal climate predictions and future projections. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences Earth and environmental sciences/Ocean sciences Arctic Temperature Variability Multi-decadal Climate Oscillation Poleward Ocean Heat Transport Feedback Mechanisms Subpolar North Atlantic. Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Supplementary Files Supplementaryv5.docx Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 24 Dec, 2025 Read the published version in Scientific Reports → Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 14 Oct, 2025 Reviews received at journal 06 Oct, 2025 Reviews received at journal 03 Oct, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 23 Sep, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 23 Sep, 2025 Reviews received at journal 23 Aug, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 15 Aug, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 15 Aug, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 14 Aug, 2025 Editor invited by journal 12 Aug, 2025 Submission checks completed at journal 30 Jul, 2025 First submitted to journal 30 Jul, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7217597","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":501165811,"identity":"c1516617-2ae6-4e14-b2df-2a650f07440f","order_by":0,"name":"Di Cai","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Frontier Science Center for Deep Ocean Multi-spheres and Earth System and Physical Oceanography Laboratory, Ocean University of China","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Di","middleName":"","lastName":"Cai","suffix":""},{"id":501165812,"identity":"c54c9fcc-5576-4623-91d9-308c2fba006c","order_by":1,"name":"Xianyao Chen","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAvUlEQVRIiWNgGAWjYDACCTBpA+HwkKAljXQth0nQwj+7+dhj3rbzcgbHDzA+eNvGIG9O0JI7x9INZ7bdNjY4k8BsOLeNwXBnAwEtBhI5ZhIf224nbrjBwCbN28aQYHCAoJb8bxKJbedAWth/E6klhw1oywGwLcxEaZG4kWYmOeNcsrHkmcRmyTnnJAw3ENLCPyP5mTRPmZ0c3/HDBz+8KbORJ2gLGDCygckGBlg0EQH+EKtwFIyCUTAKRiQAAFUxPK2SvlVqAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"","institution":"Frontier Science Center for Deep Ocean Multi-spheres and Earth System and Physical Oceanography Laboratory, Ocean University of China","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Xianyao","middleName":"","lastName":"Chen","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-07-25 23:53:09","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7217597/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7217597/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[{"content":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-33631-1","type":"published","date":"2025-12-24T15:58:06+00:00"}],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":99172343,"identity":"cfe4cf9b-f68a-4e67-817e-66a81b5bef0a","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-29 16:08:05","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":936668,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Articlev7.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7217597/v1_covered_4f0c78ba-00d8-40a2-aa6b-c2bad03f4f07.pdf"},{"id":89663774,"identity":"b4ce8665-d400-46f9-ab1c-97052da7dbc0","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-08-22 11:36:16","extension":"docx","order_by":0,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":5389582,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Supplementaryv5.docx","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7217597/v1/1ff61aa794deb2e0a9517e37.docx"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Subpolar North Atlantic Ocean Heat Content as a Precursor to 21st-century Arctic Temperature Variability","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"scientific-reports","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"scirep","sideBox":"Learn more about [Scientific Reports](http://www.nature.com/srep/)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Scientific Reports","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"Scientific Reports","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Arctic Temperature Variability, Multi-decadal Climate Oscillation, Poleward Ocean Heat Transport, Feedback Mechanisms, Subpolar North Atlantic.","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7217597/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7217597/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eArctic surface temperatures exhibit a pronounced multi-decadal oscillation superimposed on the long-term anthropogenic warming trend, yet its drivers remain poorly understood. 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