Extreme Precipitation Risks in South Asia: Future Climate Change Impacts on Population and Cropland

Extreme precipitation events increasingly threaten populations and food security across South Asia. While prior research has examined climate change impacts on rainfall patterns, the exposure of populations and cropland to these extremes remains understudied. This study assesses future exposure to extreme precipitation using CMIP6 projections under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs): SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5, for 2021–2060 and 2061–2100, relative to the 1975–2014 baseline. We analyze changes in four key precipitation indices: consecutive wet days (CWD), maximum five-day precipitation (Rx5day), days with precipitation ≥20 mm (R20mm), and total wet-day precipitation (PRCPTOT). Results indicate a significant increase in heavy rainfall and prolonged wet periods, particularly under SSP5-8.5. Compared to the baseline, R20mm is projected to increase by 59.25%, Rx5day by 44.06%, CWD by 9.15%, and PRCPTOT by 28.65%. Western India and Pakistan are expected to experience the most pronounced changes, while the Indo-Gangetic Plain—including Bangladesh and eastern India—faces the highest exposure due to dense populations and extensive croplands. Population exposure to R20mm is projected to rise by 91.7% under SSP5-8.5 and 103.60% under SSP1-2.6, while cropland exposure to Rx5day could increase by 44.44% and 7.12%, respectively. These findings underscore the urgent need for targeted adaptation strategies, including improved water management, flood protection, and climate-resilient agriculture, to mitigate the escalating risks of extreme precipitation in South Asia. Information & Authors Information Version history Peer review timeline Published International Journal of Climatology Version of Record13 Aug 2025Published Copyright This work is licensed under a Non Exclusive No Reuse License.

Authors Metrics & Citations Metrics Article Usage 268views 214downloads Citations Download citation Afifa Talukder, Shamsuddin Shahid, SYED HAFIZUR RAHMAN, et al. Extreme Precipitation Risks in South Asia: Future Climate Change Impacts on Population and Cropland. Authorea. 18 March 2025. DOI: https://doi.org/10.22541/au.174230859.97092146/v1 DOI: https://doi.org/10.22541/au.174230859.97092146/v1 If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download. For more information or tips please see 'Downloading to a citation manager' in the Help menu.