Rate-induced tipping in marine-based regions of the Antarctic ice sheet

Rate-induced tipping in marine-based regions of the Antarctic ice sheet | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Physical Sciences - Article Rate-induced tipping in marine-based regions of the Antarctic ice sheet Jan Swierczek-Jereczek, Javier Blasco, Alexander Robinson, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, and 1 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6701284/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) is expected to be the largest contributor to sea-level rise over the coming centuries. As assessed by studies using equilibrium ice-sheet simulations, this is due to crossing a bifurcation point (B-tipping) driven by the marine ice-sheet instability (MISI). However, high forcing rates can lead to tipping at warming levels below the bifurcation point. This effect, called rate-induced tipping (R-tipping), has not been investigated for the AIS yet but is highly relevant given that anthropogenic warming is occurring at high rates. Here we propose that sectors subject to MISI can undergo R-tipping: when forcing rates are high and the bedrock uplift is slow, the grounding-zone retreat is not stabilised as efficiently as in equilibrium simulations, triggering MISI at warming levels below the bifurcation point. We test our hypothesis by using an ice-sheet model coupled to a computationally-efficient glacial isostatic adjustment model. The latter is suited to sample the uncertainties of the mantle viscosity, which governs the timescale of bedrock adjustment. We show that, although the West-Antarctic Ice Sheet is subject to B-tipping, it is unlikely to undergo R-tipping due to the low mantle viscosity of this region. In contrast, the East-Antarctic Subglacial Basins are likely to undergo R-tipping even for rates of warming that are smaller than the present-day ones. Depending on the mantle viscosity, this effect can reduce the critical warming by as much as 0.8 K of global mean temperature anomaly, which can drastically impact mitigation and adaptation strategies. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Cryospheric science Physical sciences/Mathematics and computing/Applied mathematics Earth and environmental sciences/Solid Earth sciences/Geophysics Rate-induced tipping Antarctic ice sheet marine ice-sheet instability glacial isostatic adjustment sea-level rise tipping points of the Earth system Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6701284","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Physical Sciences - Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":461157045,"identity":"6e204c82-0e39-498c-8e8d-5d58d187f081","order_by":0,"name":"Jan Swierczek-Jereczek","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAt0lEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBACxgYQacDAwE+6FskGkq0zOECsSub2s4c/8xTY5BvfSH66gaGijgiH9eSlSfMYpFluu5FmdoPhzGEitDTkmDHnGBw2MLuRw3aDsY0I5zH2vzH+nGPw38B4BkjLP2IcNiPHQDrH4ICBgQRISwMzMVremEn/MUg2kDjzzOxGwjEi/GLYn2P8ccYfOwP+9uRnNz7UEOEwwwZkXgJhDQwM8sQoGgWjYBSMghEOAKiHN84ASLpRAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2213-0423","institution":"Complutense University of Madrid","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Jan","middleName":"","lastName":"Swierczek-Jereczek","suffix":""},{"id":461157046,"identity":"69172843-c438-448b-b17e-dc48ff56b14e","order_by":1,"name":"Javier Blasco","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Javier","middleName":"","lastName":"Blasco","suffix":""},{"id":461157047,"identity":"a86e459b-55f2-4ebe-93bf-af5fe29f6105","order_by":2,"name":"Alexander Robinson","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3519-5293","institution":"Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Alexander","middleName":"","lastName":"Robinson","suffix":""},{"id":461157048,"identity":"90478b2e-b13f-4b78-b1bf-d07293d11ad8","order_by":3,"name":"Jorge Alvarez-Solas","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Geosciences Institute, CSIC-UCM","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Jorge","middleName":"","lastName":"Alvarez-Solas","suffix":""},{"id":461157049,"identity":"13bc335a-9c4b-4604-8050-b70f5990413c","order_by":4,"name":"Marisa Montoya","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Universidad Complutense de Madrid","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Marisa","middleName":"","lastName":"Montoya","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-05-19 18:06:47","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6701284/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6701284/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":84666625,"identity":"0f263d81-3789-4ac3-bd3d-3a3912e509f6","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-06-16 05:47:38","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":5247912,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Article File","description":"","filename":"swierczekrtippingais.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6701284/v1_covered_3014cd00-035c-411c-882f-6705e5bc9e60.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"There is \u003cb\u003eNO\u003c/b\u003e Competing Interest.","formattedTitle":"Rate-induced tipping in marine-based regions of the Antarctic ice sheet","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":false,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Rate-induced tipping, Antarctic ice sheet, marine ice-sheet instability, glacial isostatic adjustment, sea-level rise, tipping points of the Earth system","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6701284/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6701284/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"The Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) is expected to be the largest contributor to sea-level rise over the coming centuries. As assessed by studies using equilibrium ice-sheet simulations, this is due to crossing a bifurcation point (B-tipping) driven by the marine ice-sheet instability (MISI). However, high forcing rates can lead to tipping at warming levels below the bifurcation point. This effect, called rate-induced tipping (R-tipping), has not been investigated for the AIS yet but is highly relevant given that anthropogenic warming is occurring at high rates. Here we propose that sectors subject to MISI can undergo R-tipping: when forcing rates are high and the bedrock uplift is slow, the grounding-zone retreat is not stabilised as efficiently as in equilibrium simulations, triggering MISI at warming levels below the bifurcation point. We test our hypothesis by using an ice-sheet model coupled to a computationally-efficient glacial isostatic adjustment model. The latter is suited to sample the uncertainties of the mantle viscosity, which governs the timescale of bedrock adjustment. We show that, although the West-Antarctic Ice Sheet is subject to B-tipping, it is unlikely to undergo R-tipping due to the low mantle viscosity of this region. In contrast, the East-Antarctic Subglacial Basins are likely to undergo R-tipping even for rates of warming that are smaller than the present-day ones. Depending on the mantle viscosity, this effect can reduce the critical warming by as much as 0.8 K of global mean temperature anomaly, which can drastically impact mitigation and adaptation strategies.","manuscriptTitle":"Rate-induced tipping in marine-based regions of the Antarctic ice sheet","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-06-16 05:39:01","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6701284/v1","editorialEvents":[],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"nature-geoscience","isNatureJournal":true,"hasQc":false,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"ngeo","sideBox":"Learn more about [Nature Geoscience](http://www.nature.com/ngeo/)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Nature Geoscience","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"ejp","reportingPortfolio":"Nature Research","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"71d16164-b36d-435d-8dcc-aaabb1d6a447","owner":[],"postedDate":"June 16th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[{"id":48986502,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Cryospheric science"},{"id":48986503,"name":"Physical sciences/Mathematics and computing/Applied mathematics"},{"id":48986504,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Solid Earth sciences/Geophysics"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-03-23T16:51:29+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2025-06-16 05:39:01","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-6701284","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-6701284","identity":"rs-6701284","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}