Antarctic sea-ice loss shifts the Pacific Decadal Oscillation toward its positive phase

Antarctic sea-ice loss shifts the Pacific Decadal Oscillation toward its positive phase | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Antarctic sea-ice loss shifts the Pacific Decadal Oscillation toward its positive phase Hyo-Seok Park, Hyein Jeong, Eui-Seok Chung, Shang-Ping Xie This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7731401/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Antarctic sea-ice loss can influence climate far beyond the Southern Hemisphere, but its remote oceanic impacts and underlying mechanisms remain uncertain. Using two global climate models, we show that reduced Antarctic sea ice consistently triggers a positive Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)–like response, characterized by sea-surface temperature (SST) cooling in the midlatitude western North Pacific and warming in the eastern and subpolar Pacific. This transient adjustment unfolds over timescales of up to ~20 years, with the pace depending on the model. Idealized zonal-wind nudging experiments reveal that an equatorward shift of the Asian westerly jet generates low sea-level pressure anomalies over the western North Pacific. These anomalies intensify cold oceanic advection from the subpolar region and suppress downward shortwave radiation, producing the SST cooling that contributes to the positive PDO-like response. In quasi-equilibrium, the tropical Pacific shifts toward either El Niño– or La Niña–like states, depending on the model and internal variability. These findings imply that Antarctic sea-ice decline can act as a cross-hemispheric driver, with the potential to shift the recent negative PDO pattern toward a positive phase over the next decade. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Climate and Earth system modelling Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Atmospheric science/Atmospheric dynamics Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files AntarcseaiceNHsuppv09.pdf Supplementary Figures and Tables Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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