Distrustful Complacency and Compliance with Coronavirus Prevention Measures in the United States and Across the World

Evidence suggests low concern for infection and low political trust amplified non-compliance with preventative measures during the COVID-19 pandemic. We build upon and clarify these findings. In Study 1, we assessed how widely these patterns generalize while accounting for effects of scientific trust using an 18-nation dataset with representative panel samples (N=18,509). Studies 2a-2b focused specifically on the U.S., a highly polarized environment in which a populist leader advanced conflicting information from the scientific consensus, to investigate whether high concern qualified the negative relationships between trusting such information and compliance. All studies found broad support for the prior findings, even accounting for scientific trust. Studies 2a-2b revealed that while high trust in Trump and low concern were associated with less compliance, controlling for scientific trust rendered the interaction non-significant. These findings contextualize the broader risks distrustful complacency poses with respect to public health behavior, particularly when government opposes scientific consensus.