Using Multiple Q-Q Plots to Measure Comparative Change from Pseudo-cohort Studies

Using Multiple Q-Q Plots to Measure Comparative Change from Pseudo-cohort Studies | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Method Article Using Multiple Q-Q Plots to Measure Comparative Change from Pseudo-cohort Studies Henry I. Braun This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7368188/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 12 Mar, 2026 Read the published version in Large-scale Assessments in Education → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Although International Large-scale Assessment Surveys (ILSA) produce a wealth of policy-relevant information, as cross-sectional surveys they don’t yield measures of change for specific cohorts. This severely limits not only their ability to describe cohort learning over time, but also their utility for supporting causal inferences regarding policy efficacy. In this article, we describe a new methodology that, by employing multiple Q-Q plots in the context of pseudo-cohort designs, enables the estimation of comparative change between populations Such comparisons can be made between subpopulations within a country, among different countries, or for specific subpopulations across countries. These Q-Q plot-based descriptions of comparative change complement the performance level statistics currently available. The methodology, termed the ‘Multiple Q-Q Plot’, inherits the advantages of Q-Q plots and generates graphics that are easy to interpret. The plots are intended to be used as an exploratory tool to identify differences and/or similarities of interest to education stakeholders and education researchers, to stimulate further investigations and, in some settings, to contribute to causal analysis. Using data from Trends in International Math and Science Study (TIMSS), the article presents a number of illustrative examples, concluding with a discussion of related methodological issues, as well as some policy implications. Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 12 Mar, 2026 Read the published version in Large-scale Assessments in Education → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7368188","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Method Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":504273372,"identity":"bf09b5b9-9264-4ce5-af14-fc5effabe73d","order_by":0,"name":"Henry I. 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