Global Burden of Geriatric Head and Neck Cancer: A Comprehensive Analysis of Epidemiology and Risk Factors from 1990 to 2021

Global Burden of Geriatric Head and Neck Cancer: A Comprehensive Analysis of Epidemiology and Risk Factors from 1990 to 2021 | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Global Burden of Geriatric Head and Neck Cancer: A Comprehensive Analysis of Epidemiology and Risk Factors from 1990 to 2021 Congcong Xu, Jingjing Feng, Yanmei Song, Jingnan Wang, Haitao Wan This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7708012/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 10 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Background Head and neck cancer (HNC) presents an increasing public health concern among the elderly. This study investigated global trends, regional disparities, and risk factors associated with geriatric HNC from 1990 to 2021. Methods A descriptive epidemiological analysis was conducted using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study. Age-standardized rates (ASRs) and estimated annual percent changes (EAPCs) were calculated for incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Regional trends were evaluated using Joinpoint regression and inequality indices, while Bayesian models projected future trends to 2050. Risk factor contributions were also assessed. Results From 1990 to 2021, global incidence of geriatric HNC more than doubled, with a modest increase in ASIR (from 46.29 to 47.96 per 100,000; EAPC: 0.26). Mortality declined (ASMR from 33.90 to 29.24; EAPC: − 0.39). The elderly accounted for over 51% of global HNC cases, with laryngeal cancer showing the highest elderly proportion (59.39%). South Asia, Central Europe, and high-income North America exhibited the highest ASIRs. Smoking, alcohol use, and occupational exposures were major contributors to the disease burden, especially in laryngeal and oral cancers. Projections suggest declining mortality but rising incidence in specific cancer subtypes by 2050. Conclusions Although mortality among elderly HNC patients is decreasing, incidence remains substantial. Prevention strategies tailored by region and cancer subtype—particularly those addressing tobacco and alcohol exposure—are urgently needed. global burden of disease (GBD) age-standardized rate head and neck cancer (HNC) socio-demographic index (SDI) Risk factors Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Supplementary Files supplementary.docx Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 11 Nov, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 10 Nov, 2025 Reviews received at journal 07 Nov, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 07 Nov, 2025 Reviews received at journal 25 Oct, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 25 Oct, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 21 Oct, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 16 Oct, 2025 Submission checks completed at journal 13 Oct, 2025 First submitted to journal 13 Oct, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7708012","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":537047115,"identity":"7da58215-1f1a-47d3-a66a-2bf7fa403f70","order_by":0,"name":"Congcong Xu","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Qingdao Central Hospital of University of Health and Rehabilitation Sciences","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Congcong","middleName":"","lastName":"Xu","suffix":""},{"id":537047116,"identity":"768a5175-dc4a-4c79-90d7-306f5330829d","order_by":1,"name":"Jingjing Feng","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Qingdao Central 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2021","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"bmc-geriatrics","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"bgtc","sideBox":"Learn more about [BMC Geriatrics](http://bmcgeriatr.biomedcentral.com/)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"https://www.editorialmanager.com/bgtc/default.aspx","title":"BMC Geriatrics","twitterHandle":"BMC_series","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"BMC Series","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"global burden of disease (GBD), age-standardized rate, head and neck cancer (HNC), socio-demographic index (SDI), Risk factors","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7708012/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7708012/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003ch2\u003eBackground\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eHead and neck cancer (HNC) presents an increasing public health concern among the elderly. This study investigated global trends, regional disparities, and risk factors associated with geriatric HNC from 1990 to 2021.\u003c/p\u003e\u003ch2\u003eMethods\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eA descriptive epidemiological analysis was conducted using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study. Age-standardized rates (ASRs) and estimated annual percent changes (EAPCs) were calculated for incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Regional trends were evaluated using Joinpoint regression and inequality indices, while Bayesian models projected future trends to 2050. Risk factor contributions were also assessed.\u003c/p\u003e\u003ch2\u003eResults\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eFrom 1990 to 2021, global incidence of geriatric HNC more than doubled, with a modest increase in ASIR (from 46.29 to 47.96 per 100,000; EAPC: 0.26). Mortality declined (ASMR from 33.90 to 29.24; EAPC: \u0026minus;\u0026thinsp;0.39). The elderly accounted for over 51% of global HNC cases, with laryngeal cancer showing the highest elderly proportion (59.39%). South Asia, Central Europe, and high-income North America exhibited the highest ASIRs. Smoking, alcohol use, and occupational exposures were major contributors to the disease burden, especially in laryngeal and oral cancers. Projections suggest declining mortality but rising incidence in specific cancer subtypes by 2050.\u003c/p\u003e\u003ch2\u003eConclusions\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eAlthough mortality among elderly HNC patients is decreasing, incidence remains substantial. Prevention strategies tailored by region and cancer subtype\u0026mdash;particularly those addressing tobacco and alcohol exposure\u0026mdash;are urgently needed.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Global Burden of Geriatric Head and Neck Cancer: A Comprehensive Analysis of Epidemiology and Risk Factors from 1990 to 2021","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-10-31 07:41:52","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7708012/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0},{"type":"decision","content":"Revision requested","date":"2025-11-11T05:45:44+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"142701916501956628564798862538431930343","date":"2025-11-10T06:51:23+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2025-11-07T15:16:11+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"26361299302683381306268018963936438287","date":"2025-11-07T13:54:18+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2025-10-25T23:35:49+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"102747006533924946732422161065329164803","date":"2025-10-25T22:47:49+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewersInvited","content":"","date":"2025-10-21T13:33:48+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorAssigned","content":"","date":"2025-10-16T12:40:34+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"checksComplete","content":"","date":"2025-10-13T10:48:01+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"submitted","content":"BMC Geriatrics","date":"2025-10-13T10:44:13+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"bmc-geriatrics","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"bgtc","sideBox":"Learn more about [BMC Geriatrics](http://bmcgeriatr.biomedcentral.com/)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"https://www.editorialmanager.com/bgtc/default.aspx","title":"BMC Geriatrics","twitterHandle":"BMC_series","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"BMC Series","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"bb9bb3c0-5ac4-4333-b08b-e1ae5b32d05f","owner":[],"postedDate":"October 31st, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"under-review","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2025-12-05T08:58:23+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2025-10-31 07:41:52","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-7708012","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-7708012","identity":"rs-7708012","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}