Research on the Mechanism of Rockburst Incubation and Risk Identification in Isolated Working Faces within the Axis Zone of Synclines in Extra-Thick Coal Seams

Research on the Mechanism of Rockburst Incubation and Risk Identification in Isolated Working Faces within the Axis Zone of Synclines in Extra-Thick Coal Seams | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Research on the Mechanism of Rockburst Incubation and Risk Identification in Isolated Working Faces within the Axis Zone of Synclines in Extra-Thick Coal Seams Yongqin Xie, Anye Cao, Geng Li, Weiwei Zhao, Cheng Zhang, Zhongjun Feng This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8685480/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 13 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract This study employed an integrated approach combining theoretical analysis, numerical simulation and field monitoring to address the issues of high stress concentration and rockburst risk during the mining of isolated panels within a synclinal axis. This methodology was employed to systematically investigate the evolution of the overburden structure in this geological setting. The spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of mining-induced stresses were clarified, revealing the mechanism of rockburst in isolated panels within extremely thick coal seams in synclinal axes. Based on existing microseismic monitoring, a comprehensive, modified method for identifying rockburst risk was developed and implemented. The results indicate that, when mining the working face in the synclinal axis area, the overburden structure exhibits a long-arm 'F' type characteristic when the minimum pillar width is greater than 36.5 m (95 m in this case). As the working face gradually moved closer to the transport roadway along the synclinal axis, the maximum principal stress peaked at 42.1 MPa, an increase of 29.1% on the initial value of 32.6 MPa, with the corresponding stress concentration factor rising to 2.34. During this process, the combined effect of stress concentration in the front abutment area and the strong dynamic load released by the fracture of the key strata resulted in a substantial decrease, or even a shift towards tensile stress, in the minimum principal stress σ ₃. This enabled the coal-rock mass to fail at a lower maximum principal stress σ ₁, ultimately triggering a rockburst. A multi-indicator microseismic risk identification model was constructed based on the preceding analysis. This model raised the working face's early-warning accuracy from 84.1% to 94.9%, significantly enhancing its rockburst risk identification. The findings can provide a reference for isolated working faces with similar geological and mining conditions. Physical sciences/Engineering Earth and environmental sciences/Natural hazards Earth and environmental sciences/Solid earth sciences Composite key strata Composite effect Rock burst High-energy microseismic events Static and dynamic load Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 13 Feb, 2026 Reviews received at journal 08 Feb, 2026 Reviews received at journal 05 Feb, 2026 Reviews received at journal 05 Feb, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 05 Feb, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 03 Feb, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 03 Feb, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 03 Feb, 2026 Reviewers invited by journal 03 Feb, 2026 Editor assigned by journal 03 Feb, 2026 Editor invited by journal 02 Feb, 2026 Submission checks completed at journal 29 Jan, 2026 First submitted to journal 29 Jan, 2026 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8685480","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":585119358,"identity":"afb4ad80-f6db-4af5-85e2-2830df371ebd","order_by":0,"name":"Yongqin Xie","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"China University of Mining and Technology","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Yongqin","middleName":"","lastName":"Xie","suffix":""},{"id":585119359,"identity":"d765af80-f50a-4d74-83e2-0d6ba803082e","order_by":1,"name":"Anye 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effect, Rock burst, High-energy microseismic events, Static and dynamic load","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8685480/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8685480/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eThis study employed an integrated approach combining theoretical analysis, numerical simulation and field monitoring to address the issues of high stress concentration and rockburst risk during the mining of isolated panels within a synclinal axis. This methodology was employed to systematically investigate the evolution of the overburden structure in this geological setting. The spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of mining-induced stresses were clarified, revealing the mechanism of rockburst in isolated panels within extremely thick coal seams in synclinal axes. Based on existing microseismic monitoring, a comprehensive, modified method for identifying rockburst risk was developed and implemented. The results indicate that, when mining the working face in the synclinal axis area, the overburden structure exhibits a long-arm 'F' type characteristic when the minimum pillar width is greater than 36.5 m (95 m in this case). As the working face gradually moved closer to the transport roadway along the synclinal axis, the maximum principal stress peaked at 42.1 MPa, an increase of 29.1% on the initial value of 32.6 MPa, with the corresponding stress concentration factor rising to 2.34. During this process, the combined effect of stress concentration in the front abutment area and the strong dynamic load released by the fracture of the key strata resulted in a substantial decrease, or even a shift towards tensile stress, in the minimum principal stress \u003cem\u003eσ\u003c/em\u003e₃. This enabled the coal-rock mass to fail at a lower maximum principal stress \u003cem\u003eσ\u003c/em\u003e₁, ultimately triggering a rockburst. A multi-indicator microseismic risk identification model was constructed based on the preceding analysis. This model raised the working face's early-warning accuracy from 84.1% to 94.9%, significantly enhancing its rockburst risk identification. The findings can provide a reference for isolated working faces with similar geological and mining conditions.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Research on the Mechanism of Rockburst Incubation and Risk Identification in Isolated Working Faces within the Axis Zone of Synclines in Extra-Thick Coal Seams","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2026-02-05 17:56:39","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8685480/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0},{"type":"decision","content":"Revision requested","date":"2026-02-13T13:46:38+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2026-02-09T01:48:22+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2026-02-06T04:21:14+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2026-02-06T02:15:32+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"241494974854439622072065396545960662676","date":"2026-02-05T09:38:07+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"111893801166389513736375770879929901172","date":"2026-02-03T14:27:46+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"110781872685737384842940129244357829421","date":"2026-02-03T07:57:24+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"218098113830625570471262578531886259534","date":"2026-02-03T07:07:50+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewersInvited","content":"","date":"2026-02-03T06:46:00+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorAssigned","content":"","date":"2026-02-03T06:32:36+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvited","content":"","date":"2026-02-03T04:33:22+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"checksComplete","content":"","date":"2026-01-29T07:56:28+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"submitted","content":"Scientific Reports","date":"2026-01-29T07:31:52+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"scientific-reports","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"scirep","sideBox":"Learn more about [Scientific Reports](http://www.nature.com/srep/)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Scientific Reports","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"Scientific Reports","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"0e3a0559-9bd4-4611-bee1-67588d0a707c","owner":[],"postedDate":"February 5th, 2026","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"under-review","subjectAreas":[{"id":62247855,"name":"Physical sciences/Engineering"},{"id":62247856,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Natural hazards"},{"id":62247857,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Solid earth sciences"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-04-16T07:42:44+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2026-02-05 17:56:39","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-8685480","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-8685480","identity":"rs-8685480","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"XKTyCvWXoU3ODBz1xrDgd","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}